Tag: films

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 13th Edition

My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.

Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.

That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).

As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):

Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.

The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).

Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.

Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.

Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.

Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).

Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.

Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.

You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)

24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Ballad of a Small Player

La Grazia

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Hikari, Rental Family

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)

15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)

12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)

14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)

15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

The Rivals of Amziah King

Anemone

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ballad of a Small Player

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Late Fame

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

La Grazia

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

Deaf President Now!

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Couture

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Christy

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

How to Train Your Dragon

That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Winner: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2

Neon Lights Up Cannes

No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…

Here Box Office Prediction

Reuniting the director, screenwriter, and two leads from Forrest Gump some three decades after the Best Picture winner’s release, Here is present in multiplexes on November 1st. The high concept family drama utilizes a stationery home camera shot spanning decades of time. Robert Zemeckis directs and Eric Roth penned the script. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright headline a cast that includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.

The collection of talent mentioned above might have generated big bucks if it arrived in the decade following Mr. Gump’s global treks. I suspect this may struggle to find the older audience it seeks. There has yet to be any awards buzz and that could have helped.

While Hanks recently had an adult themed hit via A Man Called Otto, it had the benefit of being based on a well-known novel. Here‘s best hope is that viewers who do see it will tell their friends about it and that it plays into Thanksgiving. That could be a stretch as I’m forecasting this will only reach a troubling mid single digits.

Here opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 20th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.

Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.

In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dídi

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cloud

Flow

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visusal Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Gladiator II

6 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Blitz, Conclave

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked

2 Nominations

Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot