Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).
In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.
Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Testament of Ann Lee
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Best Film Screenplay
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Non-English Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
Sound of Falling
Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Scarlet
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from F1
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
KPop Demon Hunters
Sinners
Superman
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Zootopia 2
Alternate – AMinecraft Movie
That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Sinners
6 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.
This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actress and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here from Walter Salles. If you missed my posts covering the other Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Fernanda Torres:
The Brazilian performer had her stateside awards breakthrough with the acclaimed political drama. This culminated in a fairly surprising victory at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama, beating out stalwarts like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Kate Winslet (Lee).
The Case Against Fernanda Torres:
That Globe win is a bit misleading since she’s only nominee of the six to make the Academy’s cut. The other four Oscar contenders were all up for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. This includes BAFTA recipient Mikey Madison (Anora) and Globe/Critics Choice honoree Demi Moore (The Substance). Torres failed to achieve nominations at BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
It’s not an impossibility that Torres could upset, but she is a distant third behind Madison and Moore.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered six of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is I’m Still Here from Walter Salles.
The Case for I’m Still Here:
The Brazilian drama has been a critics favorite ever since it debuted in Venice where it won the Best Screenplay prize. The love is evidenced by the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score coupled with its 99% Audience Score on that site. It is a threat to win its other two nominations for International Feature Film and Actress (Fernanda Torres) based on the growing momentum.
The Case Against I’m Still Here:
It was unquestionably the surprise nominee on nomination morning that few (including me) predicted. Here missed the BP cut with precursors including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. While it was up for Foreign Film at the Globes, it lost to Emilia Pérez. This could just as easily go for 0 for 3 on Oscar night and I’d say it’s the frontrunner in none of its competitions. The 3 nominations is the second lowest of the 10 hopefuls (ahead of 2 for Nickel Boys). Salles hasn’t been nominated anywhere for his direction and that rarely bodes well for BP viability.
The Verdict:
While I’m Still Here is generating increased visibility, I’d say International Feature Film and not Best Picture is where it could emerge over Pérez (which has faced unwanted headlines in recent days due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media history).
Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.
As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.
Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 9/10
The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
How I Did: 4/5
DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
How I Did: 5/5
The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/5
Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Anora is expected to shine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Conclave is expected to shine.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 3/5
After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
How I Did: 3/5
Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
How I Did: 3/5
My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 3/5
I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This is where The Substance could materialize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
How I Did: 3/5
“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This could be a Wicked win.
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?
And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.
Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:
13 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Wicked
8 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
6 Nominations
Anora
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.
For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.
That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.
I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.
And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.
After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).
This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.
I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.
Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.
Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.
For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.
Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.
Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.
Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.
Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 4/5
Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
How I Did: 4/5
The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 3/5
The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 2/5 (oof)
And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.
And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…
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