Tag: Fancy Dance

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.

A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.

We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).

I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).

While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.

You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)

15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)

23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)

12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The End (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez

2. I’m Still Here

3. The Count of Monte Cristo

4. Uprising

5. Grand Tour

Other Possibilities:

6. Simon of the Mountain

7. Evil Does Not Exist

8. Emmanuelle

9. Kneecap

10. The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2

2. The Wild Robot

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Flow

5. Memoir of a Snail

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2

7. Savages

8. The Most Precious of Cargoes

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

10. Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries

2. Daughters

3. Sugarcane

4. No Other Land

5. Will & Harper

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

8. Gaucho Gaucho

9. Union

10. Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Nosferatu

4. Anora

5. Gladiator II

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez

7. Conclave

8. Joker: Folie à Deux

9. Queer

10. Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Gladiator II

4. Nosferatu

5. Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

7. Maria

8. Megalopolis

9. Conclave

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Sing Sing

4. Anora

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

8. Gladiator II

9. Challengers

10. Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Nosferatu

3. A Different Man

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

5. Maria

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

7. Joker: Folie à Deux

8. Sasquatch Sunset

9. Longlegs

10. Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Joker: Folie à Deux

3. Sing Sing

4. Queer

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz

7. Gladiator II

8. Nickel Boys

9. Nosferatu

10. Challengers

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez

2. TBD from Sing Sing

3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

5. TBD from Moana 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

10. “Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Blitz

3. Gladiator II

4. Nosferatu

5. Wicked

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

7. Joker: Folie à Deux

8. Conclave

9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice

10. Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Gladiator II

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

4. Blitz

5. Emilia Pérez

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters

7. Wicked

8. A Quiet Place: Day One

9. Civil War

10. Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Gladiator II

3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4. Mufasa: The Lion King

5. Here

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

7. Blitz

8. Twisters

9. Nosferatu

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Sing Sing

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked

1 Nomination

The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 4th Edition

Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.

That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.

The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.

Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.

Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.

Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)

13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)

16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)

19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)

20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)

22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)

24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The End

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress

Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)

11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The End

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)

9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

8. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Collaboration (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Here (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Actor

Oscar Predictions: Fancy Dance

Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.

She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.

Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Other Possibilitities:

Glenn Close, The Summer Book

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The End

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Director is up next!