Tag: F1

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

July 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.

The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.

Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.

Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $122.4 million

2. Superman

Predicted Gross: $28 million

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. F1

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.

Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.

While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.

Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.

F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.

Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction
Smurfs Box Office Prediction
Eddington Box Office Prediction

I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.

As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.

I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.

There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $56.2 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. F1

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.

Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.

F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.

Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.

In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.

Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)

23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)

12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)

15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)

12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)

5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Six Billion Dollar Man

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)

9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sinners

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nomnations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

After the Hunt, Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Bugonia

5 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominatons

Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman

July 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Jurassic World Rebirth achieved the third best debut of 2025, but Superman will attempt to do the same on Friday. James Gunn’s DC reboot of the iconic superhero franchise is the only new wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

Superman Box Office Prediction

In order to reach that third best mark, it’ll need to top Rebirth‘s low 90s start (more on that below). I’m projecting it’ll do so with plenty of room to spare while not reaching the heights of A Minecraft Movie or Lilo & Stitch. My mid to high 120s projection puts it just ahead of 2013’s Man of Steel which kicked off the previous iteration of the series.

As for Rebirth, I’m estimating a sophomore drop around 60%. That would it in line with the second weekend dips for Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Jurassic World: Dominion. It is possible that the Superman competition and the ho-hum B Cinemascore could mean a more precipitous fall.

Holdovers F1, How to Train Your Dragon, and Elio should populate the rest of the top 5 and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $128.6 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

3. F1

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. How to Train You Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Elio

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

Jurassic World Rebirth didn’t match the grosses of the three previous Jurassic World experiences. The dino adventure from Gareth Edwards did, however, manage to outdo most expectations including mine. It ruled over the holiday frame with $92 million from Friday to Sunday and $147.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That exceeds my respective forecasts of $80.8 million and $133 million. The long-running franchise is certainly not extinct and we can anticipate future sequels.

I miscalculated the staying power of F1 in its second lap. The racing drama was second with $25.7 million (a 55% ease). My $39.7 million estimate was obviously far more generous as I assumed word-of-mouth would carry it to a sturdier hold. The ten-day take is still a commendable $109 million and the overseas earnings are impressive.

How to Train Your Dragon was third with $11.2 million, a bit below my $12.9 million call. The live-action remake of the animated pic is up to $224 million in four weeks.

Disney/Pixar’s woes continued as the disappointing Elio was fourth with $5.7 million (I said $6.2 million). The three-week total is just $55 million.

28 Years Later rounded out the top five with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5 million! It’s made $60 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

July 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Jurassic World Rebirth Box Office Prediction

The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.

After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.

Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. F1

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

4. Elio

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. 28 Years Later

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. M3GAN 2.0

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (June 27-29)

F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.

How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.

Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.

Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.

Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 27-29 Box Office Predictions

Racing drama F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt looks to finish first this weekend while campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 aims for a strong second. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

F1 Box Office Prediction
M3GAN 2.0 Box Office Prediction

The range for F1 could be wide and it wouldn’t surprise me if it topped $50 million. The low bar appears to be in the mid 30s. With mostly solid reviews and fans of the sport likely to turn up (that could be more significant overseas), I’m going with a mid 40s premiere.

I’m definitely going on the lower end of the spectrum for M3GAN 2.0, the follow-up to 2023’s surprise hit. As I wrote in my post, I’m not convinced audiences are clamoring for the title character’s return. My low 20s projection puts it in the runner-up spot though not by much.

Current two-week champ How to Train Your Dragon could lose close to half its sophomore frame crowd for high teens in third. The four and five spot could be close between Elio and 28 Years Later in their second outings. The former had a historically weak debut (more on that below) while 28 Years also kicked off at the bottom portion of its anticipated spread. I suspect Elio will have a much better hold than Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. F1: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $46.2 million

2. M3GAN 2.0

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

4. Elio

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. 28 Years Later

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

Box Office Results (June 20-22)

How to Train Your Dragon managed to stay atop the charts, but it did have a heftier decline that I figured. The live-action remake of the DreamWorks animated original brought in $36.5 million compared to my $41.6 prediction for $160 million in its initial ten days.

28 Years Later was second with $30 million, not matching my $33.7 million call. While that’s easily the strongest debut of the trilogy (it’s been eighteen years since its predecessor), some prognosticators had this pegged at $35-$40 million. With a so-so B Cinemascore, the dip this weekend could be pronounced.

Pixar experienced its smallest debut ever courtesy of Elio at $20.8 million. I was slightly more generous with $24.5 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the original story struggled to find its family audience as remakes and sequels dominate the season. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends to come (something that occurred with 2023’s Elemental after its uninspired beginning).

Lilo & Stitch was fourth with $9.7 million, eclipsing my $8.1 million take. This live-action remake of an animated property now sits at $386 million after five weeks with $400M+ firmly in its sights.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) as the franchise finale(?) has made $178 million in five weeks.

Finally, Materialists was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.8 million, a bit under my $6.6 million forecast. The ten-day tally is $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sound of Falling

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

F1 Box Office Prediction

F1 (or F1: The Movie) hopes to be #1 when it debuts June 27th. The racing drama comes from Top Gun: Maverick maker Joseph Kosinski with Brad Pitt in the lead. Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem provide support.

There are some reports that the budget is around $300 million so profitability is a question mark. Its title sport is more popular overseas so Warner Bros is certainly banking on impressive foreign grosses. Reviews are mostly complimentary with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 70.

I believe the star power and solid word-of-mouth should be enough to power F1 to the top spot. $50 million plus would be a welcome sight for its studio considering the price tag. I’ll project it doesn’t quite get there.

F1 opening weekend prediction: $46.2 million

For my M3GAN 2.0 prediction, click here:

M3GAN 2.0 Box Office Prediction