The American Film Institute (AFI) said yes to Nope and nope to The Whale and Babylon today as they named their top ten movies of 2022. Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale was perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch.
The AFI list, in the previous decade, typically gives us seven of the eventual Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. In other words, they’re worth paying attention to. Coupled with Wednesday’s National Board of Review selections, there’s much to discuss. First, here’s the full AFI Ten:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Nope
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
It’s key to remember that only U.S. made pictures are eligible. That means titles like All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, and The Banshees of Inisherin were not in the mix. However, Banshees received a Special Award similar to what eventual Academy hopefuls like Roma and Parasite nabbed.
I went 7 for 10 on my predictions. I correctly named Avatar, Elvis, Everything Everywhere…, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. I didn’t name Nope, She Said, and Tár. Instead I picked Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. For She Said and Tár especially, these were important nods considering they missed NBR (as did Nope).
Let’s start with the films that made the AFI and NBR lists. I’m counting Banshees with its AFI Special Award shout-out and there’s six more: Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. This is a list you want to be on when it comes to an Oscar BP nom.
In the previous five years, ten pictures that made AFI and NBR were ignored by the Academy. They are 2017’s The Florida Project, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade (all from 2018), Knives Out and Richard Jewell from 2019, Da 5 Bloods and Soul in 2020, and last year’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.
If history is our guide, at least one of the seven from 2022 will miss out. Looking at the list, The Woman King is probably most vulnerable. That said, I’ve yet it to include it in my Oscar ten and the stock is rising.
In the past five years, only five pics have missed AFI and NBR (including Special Awards) and received a BP nod from the Academy. They are Darkest Hour from 2017, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice in 2018, The Father in 2020, and last year’s Drive My Car.
What about the movies that didn’t make AFI or NBR in 2022? That list includes Babylon, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, All Quiet o the Western Front, and Decision to Leave. The last two weren’t eligible for AFI. Nevertheless this isn’t a list you want to be on though the outlook isn’t completely dire.
If history guides us again, 2 of the aforementioned 2022 titles could still get love from Oscar. Perhaps Monday’s Golden Globes nods will save some of them. There’s no doubt that Babylon and The Whale are looking shakier for Academy inclusion after this week. They need some attention from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
I’ll have my Golden Globe nominations recap up Monday and if you missed my predictions on them, you can find them here:
The American Film Institute announces their top ten pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a good indication of half or more of the eventual BP contenders at the Oscars.
Keep in mind that American product only is eligible for this particular group. Since this list began in 2000, the Academy’s BP recipient has only missed here five times. Four of those occasions were due to the whole country of origin thing – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King Speech, The Artist in 2011, and Parasite from 2019. The Departed in 2006 also didn’t make the cut. This means you shouldn’t expect Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Decision to Leave, or RRR to surface here.
So what will? The AFI ten and the Oscar ten had a solid match last year at 8. Tick, Tick… Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth were the AFI inclusions that didn’t make it with the Academy. They went with two features from outside the U.S. in Belfast and Drive My Car. In recent years, the match number is usually 6 or 7.
It’s not uncommon for AFI to pick blockbusters or animated fare that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Soul, Knives Out, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, Zootopia, Inside Out,Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Straight Outta Compton.
Let’s talk of the pics I have just missing the cut. It was hard to leave off Tár. If it fails to be named tomorrow, that would be two disappointing days in a row after it surprisingly missed the National Board of Review (NBR) list today. Same goes for She Said and The Whale while Till did make NBR. More popcorn flavored flicks like The Batman, Nope, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are all viable contenders.
We shall see if any of them get in. Avatar, Babylon, Elvis, Glass Onion, Pinocchio, and The Woman King all feel like pics that should make it here if they have any hope of making the Academy’s cut. It is rare for the Oscars to nominate a more mainstream title that AFI doesn’t.
I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with commentary and how I did!
The National Board of Review, a group of cinephiles out of New York City, bestows its best of every year in early December. Their selections certainly don’t forecast who and what the Academy will eventually name. They do, like many critics organizations, give us potential hints as to who and what’s hot and not as Oscar voters ready their ballots.
For 2022, the NBR went with the year’s most popular picture in Top Gun: Maverick. Named Best Film, Maverick is expected to land a spot in the Academy’s BP ten. Picking it to win is risky business. Of the last 10 NBR victors, only one went on to win BP at the big dance – 2018’s Green Book (and that was a surprise). The last three recipients were The Irishman, Da 5 Bloods, and Licorice Pizza. On the other hand, one three NBR winning films in the 21st century didn’t score an Oscar BP nomination: 2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, and the aforementioned Bloods from 2020.
The directing prize went to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. He’s ranked #1 in my Oscar picks and has been for quite some time. If he takes Oscar, he’d be the first NBR victor to do so since 2006 when Martin Scorsese won for The Departed.
The matches don’t improve much in the acting derbies. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was crowned Best Actress. Three of the past 10 winners achieved Oscar glory: Julianne Moore for Still Alice, Brie Larson in Room, and Renee Zellweger as Judy. On a side note, a Cate Blanchett Tàr prize here would’ve been the easy bet. That picture was ignored by NBR even in their selections for the 10 greatest films not named Top Gun: Maverick (more on that below).
Colin Farrell nabbed another lead Actor honor for The Banshees of Inisherin. Two of the previous 10 NBR gentleman made a podium trip at the Oscars: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and Will Smith last year for King Richard (remember that?). Farrell is emerging as a major threat as is Austin Butler for Elvis (which received no love from this board). Along with Brendan Fraser in The Whale (who needs some critic groups love awfully soon), they make up a three-way tussle for Best Actor.
Janelle Monae is your Best Supporting Actress as her stock is rising. Yet only two of the past 10 winners match Oscar with Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk and Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari. Brad Pitt is the only Supporting Actor NBR/Academy match of the last decade for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Brendan Gleeson in The Bansees of Inisherin will try and join that small club as he emerged over frontrunner Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere.
Original Screenplay went to Banshees while All Quiet on the Western Front was a surprise recipient in Adapted Screenplay over Women Talking (which is widely favored to catch the Academy’s attention).
Other pics making their mark today were Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated Feature, Close in International Feature Film, and Sr. for Documentary Feature. All are expected to vie for consideration at the Oscars.
Finally, the NBR chooses 10 additional features on their best of list. This year they were Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Till, The Woman King, and Women Talking. In addition to Tár and Elvis – you also won’t find The Whale or Babylon or Triangle of Sadness among the picks. Same with She Said and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
From 2019-2021, the winning pictures and ten other NBR picks equated to between 5-7 of the Academy’s BP contenders. Right now, I have six of these 2022 films in my Oscar 10: Maverick, Avatar, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, and Women Talking. That corresponds to what usually occurs between NBR and Oscar.
All in all, a good day for Maverick and company. That said – if you think it is now cruising to Best Picture, history suggests otherwise.
After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.
Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.
There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.
Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor – Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Animated Motion Picture
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Decision to Leave
RRR
Alternate: Saint Omer
Best Original Score
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
5 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Elvis
3 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár
2 Nominations
RRR, Turning Red, The Whale
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.
Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.
Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.
The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.
Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.
The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.
Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!
Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).
This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.
Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.
There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).
There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)
8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Bardo
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
9 Nominations
Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King
One of the last significant pieces of the 2022 Oscar puzzle has come into sharper focus with Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. The 188 minute epic set in late 1920s Hollywood has screened for industry and critics and reaction is wildly divergent. Some posts are calling it a triumph while others proclaim it a grotesque mess. One thing seems certain – this one will get a whole lotta chatter leading up to its December 23rd release. One other thing – the buzz below could change with more screenings as we get closer to the premiere.
Newcomer Diego Calva headlines a cast that includes Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, Li Jun Li, Jean Smart, and Tobey Maguire. While the review embargo won’t lift for a bit, the all over the map chatter raises some questions for its awards viability.
Chazelle has a sterling track record with voters. His first two features – 2014’s Whiplash and 2016’s La La Land – were both Best Picture nominees (the latter rather famously losing to Moonlight). Chazelle did take the Director prize for La La. On the other hand, 2018’s First Man underperformed at the box office and with the Academy (its four nods were all in tech categories).
So it’s a given that Babylon has (sight unseen) sat high on the projections of prognosticators for months. First things first. This won’t end the streak of Chazelle’s movies getting nominations. It’s a major possibility in numerous below the line competitions like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score, and Sound. Film Editing is one that could be contingent on a BP nod.
Will it get there for the biggest race? I think it still probably makes the cut. Yet Paramount might be feeling that Top Gun: Maverick is now their ace contender. The studio has had such a solid year that both could get in. There’s been some comparisons to The Wolf of Wall Street with the running time and frequent debauchery. That was a BP hopeful in 2013. For another Leo pic reference, Don’t Look Up was up last year and it too garnered severely mixed reviews.
I suspect I’ll still have Babylon in my top 10 when I updated my projections this weekend. I’ve had it listed 3rd for weeks and I would anticipate that ranking will drop. Chazelle is unlikely to be my #2 where he’s sat behind Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) for awhile. I’m not completely sure he’ll be in my estimated quintet.
As for the actors – Robbie is getting a lot of praise thus far as is Calva. Best Actress, as I’ve noted a lot on here, is packed this year. I believe Cate Blanchett (Tár), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) are currently top 3 in the race and there’s a handful of others vying for spots 4-5. That includes Robbie and I still believe she stands a realistic shot. So does Calva and that may be due to Actor being pretty weak this year. His inclusion is far from guaranteed, but he could nab a fourth or fifth slot like his costar. While Pitt is getting decent notices, I’m less convinced he’s in for Supporting Actor.
Bottom line: Babylon doesn’t seem like a threat to win Best Picture and it’s questionable whether it even gets in. Acting nods are feasible but not assured. Tech noms are inevitable. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…
Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:
The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.
There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Tár
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. She Said
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
12. Decision to Leave
13. Avatar: The Way of Water
14. Elvis
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Todd Field, Tár
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Adam Driver, White Noise
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
8. Nina Hoss, Tár
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)
4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)
9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftershock
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. X (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“On My Way” from Marry Me
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said
2 Nominations
Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild
My deep dives into 6 high profile Oscar races reaches the top one with Best Picture. If you missed my posts on Director and the four acting competitions, you can find them here:
At this early November period from 2019-21, here’s how accurate I was with my BP forecast. Three years ago, I correctly called 8 of the 9 eventual nominees. That includes the winner Parasite, 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The ninth hopeful was Joker and it was listed in Other Possibilities. In the wildly unpredictable 2020, I was right about 5 of 8 with two months left in the calendar – Nomadland (which won), The Father, Mank, Minari, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Judas and the Black Messiah was named in Other Possibilities while Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not yet in my top 15. In 2021, the Academy went back to a set number of 10 BP nominees. I rightly identified 7 of the 10 with Belfast, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. The film that emerged victorious – CODA was not yet predicted but in Other Possibilities. So was Don’t Look Up while Drive My Car wasn’t among the 15.
Moving to 2022 – I can’t recall a year where four sequels were viable for inclusion. That’s where we stand at the moment. The top grosser of the year is Top Gun: Maverick and I do believe the Academy will reward it for bringing older audiences back to multiplexes (and of course for its quality). In a few weeks, we’ll have a better idea about Avatar: The Way of Water. I’m not ready to vault into my ten, but that could change soon. Knives Out missed out on BP in 2019 so I’m skeptical for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. And while Black Panther made the lineup in 2018, Wakanda Forever seems like a stretch despite the solid buzz. Nevertheless it’s not crazy to think that 40% of the BP players could be sequels.
On the non-sequel front, we begin with The Fabelmans. Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age tale has been listed at #1 for weeks on the blog. Only one of the filmmaker’s works – 1993’s Schindler’s List – has won BP. Shakespeare in Love was a surprise recipient in 1998 over the favored Saving Private Ryan. Nearly 30 years later, Fabelmans could have the credentials to be the second.
However, the frontrunner at this stage often doesn’t cross the finish line and Spielberg’s latest feels like a soft frontrunner. I could easily envision a scenario where the voters go outside the box with Everything Everywhere All at Once. A24’s multi-genre pic achieved wide acclaim and did great business at the box office. While spring releases rarely make the journey all the way through the awards calendar, Everything could buck that trend.
Other spoilers include The Banshees of Inisherin and Women Talking, which both garnered kudos at film festivals and will have their ardent admirers. I believe that logic also applies to Tár and The Whale though I don’t see either having a shot to win. And we are still waiting to see if Damien Chazelle’s Babylon is as viable as its pedigree suggests (we’ll know in a few days when it screens).
It’s become more common for an international feature film to get in and the two most likely to do so are All Quiet on the Western Front (which might just be Netflix’s most serious hopeful) and Decision to Leave. The reviews for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo should leave it out (it might not even make the separate international race).
While Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the favorite to be Best Animated Feature, I don’t see it breaking into the big dance. It’s probably the only animated title with any sort of chance.
The festival circuit always lessens the viability of some pics. In 2022, I would put the following on that list: Empire of Light, The Son, and Armageddon Time.
The Academy could choose to honor some moneymakers like Elvis and The Woman King (though putting Maverick in could check that box). Till may only show up in Best Actress for Danielle Deadwyler. And it’s tough to know what to make of the upcoming Emancipation considering it’s led by Will Smith (who has some, um, recent history with the ceremony).
Bottom line: there is a lot of uncertainty about BP. I feel fairly confident about The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick,Tár, and The Whale (more than others with that one). We’ll know about Babylon shortly so that leaves two spots. I could definitely see a sequel or a foreign flick jumping up. For now, the 9th and 10th entries go to Triangle of Sadness and She Said. Expect movement as the weeks roll along.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elvis (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Stay tuned for estimates on all the races coming up soon!
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