Tag: ethan hawke

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

We’ve arrived at Day #2 of my first Oscar predictions covering the films of 2014. If you missed my post yesterday on Best Supporting Actress, you may find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

For round 1 of my predictions, I’m just listing my current five predictions, along with other possibilities in races that are just beginning to take shape. Let’s get to Best Supporting Actor, shall we? I will note that my inaugural 2013 picks done around the same time last year correctly yielded 2 of the 5 eventual nominees.

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Supporting Actor

Domhall Gleeson, Unbroken

Logan Lerman, Fury

Edward Norton, Birdman

Tim Roth, Selma

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

 

Other Possibilities:

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice

Albert Brooks, A Most Violent Year

Benicio del Toro, Inherent Vice

Johnny Depp, Into the Woods

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Matthew Goode, Men, Women, and Children

Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

John Lithgow, Love is Strange

Adam Sandler, Men, Women, and Children

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

We’ll get to Best Actress tomorrow!

 

 

 

The Purge: Anarchy Box Office Prediction

Last summer The Purge came out of nowhere and earned $64 million domestically against a tiny budget of only $3 million. Naturally, a sequel quickly got the green light from Universal Pictures and writer/director James DeMonaco is back in charge with Frank Grillo and Carmen Ejogo starring.

So it would stand to reason that the horror/thriller sequel should keep the gravy train rolling, right? Well… not so fast. When the original debuted in early June 2013, it started strongly out of the gate with a $34 million opening. That means it earned over half of its domestic gross in its first three days. What does that mean? It received a dismal “C” Cinemascore grade. So audiences didn’t like what they saw and they certainly weren’t telling their friends to check it out.

The Purge: Anarchy faces an uphill battle to come close to competing with its predecessor. The lackluster reaction to last year’s entry doesn’t bode well. If something like Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones could only manage an opening just north of $18 million in January, it’s hard to see this earning more in a much more competitive time frame.

As I see it, Anarchy is primed for a mediocre premiere and I don’t believe it’ll even start with half of what the first hauled in a year ago.

The Purge: Anarchy opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million

For my Sex Tape prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/

For my Planes: Fire & Rescue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Boyhood

Director Richard Linklater has been a critics darling for over two decades since his acclaimed 1991 debut Slacker. His second picture Dazed and Confused is now considered an American classic. And there’s his critically beloved trilogy of Before Sunrise, Before Sunset, and Before Midnight in addition to Waking Life, School of Rock, Fast Food Nation, and Bernie.

What does his filmography currently have in common? None have received a great deal of attention from the Academy and not one has received a Best Picture  or Director nomination. This could potentially change with Linklater’s latest effort Boyhood.

The pic premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and just opened this weekend in limited release. The shooting of Boyhood is unique. Linklater shot the film over a nearly 12 year period and it focuses on the life of a boy (Ellar Coltrane) from childhood to adulthood. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette play his divorced parents.

Critics have been absolutely over the moon on it. Based on 97 reviews, Boyhood stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers calling it the best movie of the year so far. Richard Roeper has referred to it as one of the greatest pictures he’s ever seen.

The question of Boyhood‘s Oscar viability may come down to how much mainstream exposure it receives. However, based on reviews alone, this stands the best chance of any of Linklater’s catalogue to receive a Best Picture and Director nomination, as well as Actor (Coltrane), Supporting Actor (Hawke), and Supporting Actress (Arquette).

The Purge Movie Review

James DeMonaco’s The Purge is proof positive that an effective marketing campaign and creepy TV spots can lead some titles to gross far more than they should. Released last June, the pic opened to a way more than expected $34 million. Once audiences figured out its questionable quality, it only added $30 million more after its initial three day debut. Still, with a tiny $3 million budget it represented a financial windfall for Universal and a sequel is coming next month.

The Purge is predicated on a simple and pretty ludicrous premise. Set in 2022, the crime rate is down to 1% due mostly to a 12 hour period every March where there are no laws. People can feel free to murder anyone they want with no repercussion and this is designed to restore balance and let individuals play out their violent tendencies. It’s sort of like The Hunger Games where everyone can participate and not just watch. DeMonaco’s script does little to explain why this tactic is so successful and it takes a tremendous suspension of disbelief on the audience’s part to buy it.

Ethan Hawke (who has seen better horror flicks with Sinister) is a security system salesman with a wife (Lena Headey) and two kids who has undoubtedly seen financial benefit from all the purgin’. On the night of said Purge, events take place which make the family vulnerable to becoming victims of the big event. Scary looking individuals with Strangers type masks follow.

The largest problem with The Purge is that it attempts to walk a fine line between social satire and just being an all out B movie horror flick. It never quite decides which it would rather be so it succeeds at neither. DeMonaco’s script suggests there may have more background on why this Purge tactic was adopted by the U.S. government, but it never gets into explaining it. For most of the running time, this is just a run of the mill pic about terrorizers trying to kill the family and it’s not a terribly original or memorable one at that.

Performances are adequate if not particularly noteworthy for any of the actors. There’s “twists” involving the family’s neighbors that you’ll see coming from a mile away. One of the most positive aspects of The Purge is the brisk 85 minute running time. It’s watchable for sure, but little else.

There are moments few and far between where we see how The Purge could have been an intelligent commentary on violence in this country, but it never bothers to go there. What we’re left with is considerably less impressive.

** (out of four)

This Day in Movie History: February 18

20 years ago Today in Movie History – February 18 – Ben Stiller made his directorial debut with the now Gen X classic Reality Bites. The romantic comedy/drama starring Winona Ryder helped establish not only Stiller, but also Ethan Hawke and Janeane Garafalo as rising stars. Its soundtrack was also a hit and include the single “Stay” by Lisa Loeb. Stiller could onto direct The Cable Guy, Zoolander, Tropic Thunder, and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

As for birthdays – John Travolta is 60 today. After becoming known to TV viewers from “Welcome Back, Kotter”, he very successfully transitioned into film with late 70s megahits Saturday Night Fever and Grease and Urban Cowboy in 1980. After some lean years in which only his Look Who’s Talking flicks did well, he had one of the most notable comebacks in film history with 1994’s Pulp Fiction. Since then he’s starred in numerous commercial and critical hits including Get Shorty, Broken Arrow, Phenomenon, Michael, Face/Off, Primary Colors, and Swordfish. He’s had some flops too – particularly the disastrous Battlefield Earth.

Matt Dillon is 50 today. He broke out in the early 80s in such pictures as My Bodyguard, Rumble Fish, The Outsiders, and The Flamingo Kid. He had a major critical hit in Gus Van Sant’s 1989 indie pic Drugstore Cowboy and a big comedic breakout in the smash There’s Something About Mary. Other notable movies include Singles, To Die For, Beautiful Girls, Wild Things, and Crash.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

John Travolta was in Get Shorty with Gene Hackman

Gene Hackman was in Target with Matt Dillon

And that’s today – February 18 – in Movie History!

The Purge Box Office Prediction

I would say that even a month ago, The Purge was really on no one’s radar screen when talking about potentially successful summer flicks. That has changed.

The Ethan Hawke thriller comes with a very cool concept. Set in 2022, The Purge refers to a 24-hour period that takes place every year in which all crime, including murder, is legal. Hawke is the head of a family who are terrorized by those looking to punch their free crime card. This pic seems to have gained momentum just in the last couple of weeks with frequent TV spots. I will admit – the trailers and ads for The Purge are pretty damn effective.

Five summers ago, a similar title The Strangers opened to a robust $21 million. I certainly believe The Purge could post similar grosses. Films like this tend to do more than what most prognosticators go with, so I’m tempted to predict on the high end of expectations. Mr. Hawke had a nice size hit just last fall with Sinister, which opened with a more than expected $18 million.

The sudden surge of Purge could mean a #1 opening this weekend. I believe it will be a close race between this and the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship. My prediction for that film can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

I’ve gone too low on too many similar titles and I won’t do it here. With that said:

The Purge opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million

I’ll have full predictions for this weekend’s top five later this week – stay tuned!