Shortlists covering seven of the feature film races at the Oscars were unveiled this afternoon. We now know the 15 pictures that will contend for Best Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. Additionally, we have our 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects.
I’ll go over each competition below, but I went 62 for 90 in my overall picks. It was a good day for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and All Quiet on the Western Front. They got in everywhere they reasonably could have.
With The Batman and Everything Everywhere All at Once, it was a mixed announcement as both made the cut for some and not others where they were expected to. The documentary Good Night Oppy had perhaps the worst day. It was widely anticipated to get in for Documentary and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and made neither.
Let’s break it down! **Selections that I correctly called are in bold
Best Original Score
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
HOW I DID: 9/15
The most notable omissions here are Empire of Light and The Batman while Devotion in particular wasn’t expected to be included. I also incorrectly named Bardo, Living, RRR, and White Noise. My top 5 from my projections 3 days ago (Women Talking, Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin) remain.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Dust and Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
“Time” from Amsterdam
HOW I DID: 10/15
As expected, there’s some heavy hitters in the mix with Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Selena Gomez (who I didn’t predict). The highest profile omission is Billie Eilish for “Nobody Like U” in Turning Red. My other misses were “Keep Rising” from The Woman King, “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me (a miss for Jennifer Lopez), and “Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
HOW I DID: 13/15
My best showing as I incorrectly had Spain’s Alcarras and Mars One from Brazil. India saved a little face with Last Film Show getting in. They didn’t select RRR and it could have won. There are really no major surprises here.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory
HOW I DID: 10/15
I took a swing by not including The Territory and it got in. As forthe aforementioned Good Night Oppy and Sr., they were anticipated to be here and are not. My other whiffs were Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, Riotsville, U.S.A., and Wildcat. My high five from December 18th – All That Breathes, Navalny, Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Descendant – remain.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale
HOW I DID: 7/10
Here’s a race where Everything Everywhere isn’t to be found. I also went with Three Thousand Years of Longing and The Woman King. Once again my top five from the weekend is in. The Crimes of the Future nod is truly unexpected.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 7/10
Once again my quintet of picks from 3 days ago are safe. Nope is a significant omission as is RRR (Thirteen Lives is my other miss). The unexpected addition of the Bowie doc Moonage Daydream is being praised.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
ThirteenLives
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 6/10
Here’s where my predicted five will undoubtedly be altered when I make my update. I had Everything Everywhere and RRR at 3rd and 4th, respectively. They are gone. I also incorrectly called Good Night Oppy and Thor: Love and Thunder. This means Avatar (which should win), Maverick, and Multiverse are the trio remaining that I projected. In my view, this bodes well for Panther getting in. The fifth slot is far trickier to estimate at the moment.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have updated predictions in all races up before Christmas!
The Academy, as they do every year, whittles down a few of their races to a set 10-15 contenders before announcing the final five on January 24th. This occurs tomorrow. For Original Score and Song and International Feature Film and Documentary Feature, the list goes down to 15. For Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – it drops to 10. There are surprises every year. In 2021, Titane was shockingly left out of International Feature Film.
I’m giving you my predicted shortlists for all 7 feature film derbies with some commentary. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
Nope
RRR
White Noise
The Woman King
Women Talking
***She Said was just on the outside looking in and I wouldn’t discount A Man Called Otto either.
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist:
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Keep Rising” from The Woman King
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me
“Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
***Leaving “Love Is Not Love” from Bros off was tough and don’t discount a tune (probably “Carried Away”) from Lyle Lyle Crocodile.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Shortlist:
Alcarras (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Mars One (Netherlands)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
***No love for Japan’s Plan 75 or Ukraine’s Klondike (which would be a surprise omission), but both could easily surface. I also don’t have India’s Last Film Show making the cut. If it doesn’t, that would confirm that nation’s error in not putting up RRR.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Shortlist:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Descendant
Fire of Love
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down
Good Night Oppy
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
Riotsville U.S.A.
Sr.
Wildcat
***My major snub here is The Territory. I also left Sidney (about the legendary Poitier) out which is certainly risky.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortist:
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Three Thousand Years of Longing
The Whale
The Woman King
***I so wanted to put X here, but didn’t pull the trigger. All Quiet on the Western Front, Emancipation, and The Fabelmans are all viable too.
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
***Leaving out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is risky and this is another category where The Fabelmans is possible. Same goes for The Woman King.
Best Visuasl Effects
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Good Night Oppy
Nope
RRR
Thor: Love and Thunder
Top Gun: Maverick
***Look out for All Quiet on the Western Front and maybe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.
There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.
The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.
While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.
I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).
We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)
14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Decision to Leave
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Nina Hoss, Tár
Keke Palmer, Nope
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)
8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. X (PR: -1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Living
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Elvis
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
The 28th Critics Choice Awards airs January 13th and the nominations are out on Wednesday. Like the Oscars, there are 10 Best Picture contenders. That’s easy. Then it gets a little weird.
The number of nominees in the other races has fluctuated recently from 5-7. I’m basing my estimates on 2021’s allotment, but it could look different come Wednesday morning when the nominees are announced. That means 6 in Director, the acting derbies, Ensemble, Young Performer, and Cinematography and 5 for the rest.
I’ll have a recap up Wednesday evening with my thoughts and how I performed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate:
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Alternate:
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Alternate:
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Alternate:
Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate:
Living
Best Acting Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Young Actor/Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Jalyn Hall, Till
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Madeleine McGraw, The Black Phone
Jenna Ortega, X
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Alternate:
Mason Thames, The Black Phone
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate:
Wendell and Wild
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Decision to Leave
EO
RRR
Saint Omer
Alternate:
Close
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate:
The Menu
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Alternate:
Living
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate:
Babylon
Best Hair and Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
X
Alternate:
The Woman King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Alternate:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Batman
That equates to these movies getting these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
The Fabelmans
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Women Talking
7 Nominations
Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Whale
4 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, She Said, Tár, The Woman King
3 Nominations
Aftersun, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, RRR
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Empire of Light, Till, Triangle of Sadness, X
1 Nomination
The Bad Guys, The Batman, The Black Phone, Decision to Leave, EO, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, Turning Red, Where the Crawdads Sing
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.
Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.
Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.
The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.
Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.
The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.
Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!
Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).
This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.
Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.
There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).
There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)
8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Bardo
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
9 Nominations
Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King
Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:
The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.
There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Tár
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. She Said
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
12. Decision to Leave
13. Avatar: The Way of Water
14. Elvis
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Todd Field, Tár
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Adam Driver, White Noise
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
8. Nina Hoss, Tár
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)
4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)
9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftershock
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. X (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“On My Way” from Marry Me
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said
2 Nominations
Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild
Best Director is on deck for my closeup looks at six major categories at the Oscars. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can find them here:
As I have with the other competitions, let’s see how accurate my estimates were from 2019-21 at the same early November time period. In 2019, I correctly had 4 of the 5 eventual directors: winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Todd Phillips (Joker) was identified in Other Possibilities. 2020 was a trickier year due to COVID complications and I had 2 of the contenders rightly pegged: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (who won) and David Fincher for Mank. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) was in Other Possibilities while Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) were not yet in my top ten. Last year, I had 3 of 5 with the victorious Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) was in Other Possibilities and I didn’t have Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) yet in the mix.
I don’t have Spielberg down as an Other Possibility in 2022. This time around, he could be in line for his third Best Director statue behind 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. It would mark his ninth overall nom. If he wins, he would become only the fourth filmmaker with three or more victories. John Ford has 4 while Frank Capra and William Wyler have 3.
The last four years have given us a nominee with an International Feature Film contender. In addition to Joon-ho in 2019 and Vinterberg and Hamaguchi the following years, Alfonso Cuaron took the prize in 2018 for Roma. There are two in 2022 that stand the best shot: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave). If you want to be brave and predict an out of nowhere selection (like Vinterberg kinda was in 2020), look to Lukas Dhont (Close) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO). Maybe even Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Bardo though he faces a tough road due to mixed critical reception.
However, I’m not quite ready to elevate any of them to the forecasted quintet. Damien Chazelle’s Babylon will soon screen prior to its December bow. It has the looks of a contender and he’s in unless the buzz tells me differently in a few days.
I’m also feeling good about the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Same goes for Sarah Polley (Women Talking). Both appear to be surefire BP selections and would mark the Academy’s first mentions for them in this race.
As for the fifth spot, there’s plenty of names beyond the aforementioned international auteurs. Todd Field for Tár tops that list with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) not far behind. If Avatar: The Way of Water approaches the reception that the original received, James Cameron could enter the conversation.
If She Said or The Whale pick up even more steam in BP, I wouldn’t discount Maria Schrader or Darren Aronofsky respectively. That same logic applies to Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. I’ve had him in my five previously.
Perhaps the voters will honor the maker of the year’s biggest blockbuster with Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. The more likely path is a BP nom and a few tech inclusions.
This race can and will evolve over the next couple of months. Here’s the state of the race right now:
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.
Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.
Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Till
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)
9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)
10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All the Beautyand the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. X (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4.“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Is Not Love” from Bros
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Bardo
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
5 Nominations
Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living
2 Nominations
Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing
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