Oscar Predictions: A Minecraft Movie

Warner Bros is banking on A Minecraft Movie receiving lots of play when it debuts this weekend. The adventure comedy is based on the hugely successful interactive game with Jared Hess directing. The cast includes Jason Momoa, Jack Black (who’s become a regular in video game based or game adjacent flicks), Emma Myers, Danielle Brooks, Sebastian Hansen, Rachel House, and Jennifer Coolidge.

Some reviews are pretty kind and others not so much. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 56% with 48 on Metacritic. Write-ups of the thumbs down variety aren’t complimentary of the CG. Visual Effects is the only awards category where this theoretically would materialize in awards races. It’s likely voters will have blocked Minecraft out completely. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.

The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.

Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.

A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here: