In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.
Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.
Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.
As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).
Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Wuthering Heights
Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)
2. Goat
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)
3. Crime 101
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)
4. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)
5. Solo Mio
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.
Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.
Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.
Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.
Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.
The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.
Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.
Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.
Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.
Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wuthering Heights (stylized as “Wuthering Heights”) looks to have a commanding #1 debut over a crowded President’s Day weekend beginning February 13th. Loosely adapting Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, the tawdry romantic drama marks the third directorial of Emerald Fennel behind Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi headline with a supporting cast including Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell.
This could be seen as Robbie’s first majorly visible role since her 2023 phenomenon Barbie. Last year’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was barely marketed by Sony with poor word-of-mouth and reviews. Elordi has been on viewers’ radar with his Oscar-nominated turn in Netflix’s Frankenstein.
With that star power, familiar source material, and encouraging buzz, I suspect Heights could climb above current forecasts which are already rosy. The shrewdly timed release with Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday could guarantee a large female turnout and plenty may bring their mates along for the journey. I’m going with a three-day in the mid to high 50s and a low 60s four-day
Wuthering Heights opening weekend prediction: $55 million (Friday to Sunday); $62.1 million (Friday to Monday)
My closer look at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:
As I have with those categories, I am winnowing the field of my predicted nominees from 15 possibilities to 10. At the moment, I believe Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) are guaranteed slots with Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) darn close to wrapping up one himself.
After that, there are plenty of hopefuls vying for the two spots. I do believe two females could populate them via some combo of Celine Song (Past Lives), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), and Ana DuVernay (Origin).
We also have Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) as strong possibilities. Perhaps even Cord Jefferson (director of freshly minted Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner American Fiction) could make a run.
And there’s the unseen contenders in Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple) and Ridley Scott (Napoleon).
Lots to ponder and there are now three new players in my final quintet compared to my previous predictions on August 28th. Here’s where I have the race standing at the moment:
Predicted Nominees
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
Emerald Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five high profile nods in 2020: Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay (which it won), and Film Editing. She’s back again with Saltburn and it has debuted at Telluride prior to its November 24th limited release and December 1st wide bow. The psychological thriller stars Barry Keoghan (fresh off a Supporting Actor nod for last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin), Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E. Grant, Alison Oliver, Archie Madekwe, and Mulligan (in what’s said to be a short appearance).
Initial reaction out of Colorado is divergent. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 75%, but its detractors are rather loud. So are its ardent admirers. Chances for a Best Picture or Director nod are far less promising than for Young Woman. Voters could choose to honor Fennell once again with a nom in Original Screenplay but that’s iffy as well.
As far as acting mentions, only Keoghan seems to be a possibility. There are plenty of other hopefuls contending in movies that could land in BP and he could face an uphill climb. Techs like Cinematography and Production Design are feasible. Yet Saltburn doesn’t appear poised to follow Fennell’s first feature with its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.
Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.
We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)
17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)
22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BlackBerry
The Book of Clarence
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Judy Greer, Eric Larue
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
David Strathairn, A Little Prayer
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Matt Bomer, Maestro
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Drive Away Dolls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)
10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)
13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dumb Money
Freud’s Last Session
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Perfect Days
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Spaceman
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Maestro
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.
When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.
And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.
That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.
Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.
For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.
With all that said, let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)
16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)
20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)
21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)
22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)
23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, Air
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)
12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Monster
4. About Dry Grasses
5. The Pot-au-Feu
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron
7. Perfect Days
8. The Delinquents
9. Fallen Leaves
10. La Chimera
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Other Possibilities:
6. Nimona
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Robot Dreams
9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. The Eternal Memory
4. The Mother of All Lies
5. Wild Life
Other Possibilities:
6. 20 Days in Mariupol
7. Every Body
8. Kokomo City
9. Black Ice
10. It Ain’t Over
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. The Color Purple
Other Possibilities:
6. The Killer
7. Poor Things
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Ferrari
10. Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Color Purple
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Chevalier
8. Oppenheimer
9. Wonka
10. Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. Air
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple
7. Saltburn
8. Maestro
9. The Killer
10. Napoleon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Poor Things
3. Maestro
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Barbie
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Golda
8. Beau is Afraid
9. The Color Purple
10. Priscilla
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Elemental
5. Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
8. Napoleon
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from “The Color Purple”
2. “The Wish” from Wish
3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie
9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Napoleon
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie
7. Asteroid City
8. The Zone of Interest
9. The Color Purple
10. Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Spider-Man: Acrossthe Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari
7. The Color Purple
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Wonka
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Poor Things
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Spaceman
And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
7 Nominations
Past Lives
6 Nominations
Barbie
5 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall
3 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka
One of 2023’s most anticipated titles is out Friday with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and the review embargo has lifted for the Mattel property. The box office expectations have steadily risen in recent weeks and I’ve got it nearly reaching $130 million out of the gate. Margot Robbie is, of course, the title character with Ryan Gosling as Ken. The sprawling supporting players include America Ferrera, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Helen Mirren.
It could be said that the embargo has been eagerly awaited as well. With 70 write-ups in at publication press, the Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at a robust 90%. Even when the trailers debuted, we could see awards potential in a few technical races. This includes Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Costume Design. Expect it to be in contention for all three.
The bigger question is whether it plays beyond the down the line races. Gerwig cowrote wrote the screenplay with her partner Noah Baumbach. Many reviews hone in on the clever take for the iconic IP and Adapted Screenplay seems like the most likely major category nod. If Barbie is a moneymaking behemoth (and especially if it holds decently after an expected humongous start), Best Picture and Director mentions are feasible. I’ll note that Gerwig’s two previous pics – 2017’s Lady Bird and 2019’s Little Women – both landed BP slots.
As for the performances, both Robbie in Actress and Gosling in Supporting Actor are doable. This would be the former’s third nod after 2017’s I, Tonya and 2019’s Bombshell (for supporting) and the latter’s third behind 2006’s Half Nelson and 2016’s La La Land. Based on early buzz, I see Gosling as more probable than Robbie. However, we need to see how much competition emerges in the fall. There should be plenty considering that’s when the bulk of Oscar hopefuls debut. America Ferrera is also drawing some raves for her work so we shall see if WB makes a push for her in Supporting Actress.
Lastly, Billie Eilish has the tune “What Was I Made For?” and it may be the soundtrack’s entry in Original Song. As you may recall, she won the gold statue in that race in 2021 for her title track “No Time to Die”. It will be interesting to see if Warner Bros also mounts a campaign for “I’m Just Ken”, sung by Gosling.
Bottom line: the right combo of critical praise and box office bucks could propel Barbie to plenty of nominations. Another path could involve some tech stuff and the script. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 