The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 8/10
A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 6/8
The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.
Best Ensemble
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 5/6
Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
How I Did: 5/6
A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/6
A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
How I Did: 4/6
Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.
Best Young Actor/Actress
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
How I Did: 4/6
Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Perez and not The Room Next Door.
Best Foreign Language Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 5/6
Flow and not Vermiglio.
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.
Best Comedy
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
How I Did: 5/6
I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/6
Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.
Best Costume Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5
How I Did: 5/6
September 5 gets in and not The Substance.
Best Hair and Makeup
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Song
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 5/6
“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.
Best Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 3/6
My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.
And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!
11 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist
7 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
5 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5
1 Nomination
Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.
At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
Runner- Up: September 5
Best Director
Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Best Ensemble
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Best Foreign Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Piece by Piece
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Song
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
Best Comedy
Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
Runner-Up: My Old Ass
Best Young Actor
Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)
Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)
That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
8 Nominations
Anora
7 Nominations
The Substance
6 Nominations
Challengers
4 Nominations
A Real Pain
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys
Steve McQueen’s World War II drama Blitz opened the London Film Festival today and it’s one of the final major awards puzzle pieces to screen. Opening in limited fashion on November 1st before an Apple TV streaming rollout on November 22nd, the cast includes Saoirse Ronan, young newcomer Elliot Heffernan, Harris Dickinson, Benjamin Clementine, Kathy Burke, Paul Weller, Stephen Graham, Erin Kellyman, and Leigh Gill.
I’ve had Blitz placed in either the 1 or 2 slot in Best Picture in my predictions over the past several months. It’s easy to understand why. In 2013, McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave was a Best Picture winner. Before Blitz, there was only one feature film in between with 2018’s Widows. Despite solid reviews, Widows was not an Academy player. Yet the genre of Blitz seems ripe for consideration.
Following its festival bow, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 94% with 76 on Metacritic. That’s just fine, but it’s not that simple. A deeper dive into the critical reaction tells me that Blitz will no longer be placed in the 1 or 2 position for BP. In fact, it will likely drop from the top 5 of possibilities to somewhere between 6-10. In other words, I don’t see it as a threat to win.
As for the cast, not much has changed. Ronan will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and she is probably the only performer that could (and I suspect will) make the cut. If so, she stands an excellent shot at being a double nominee coupled with her lead work in The Outrun. Such nods would mark her fifth and sixth tries at gold behind Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. As for Heffernan, he could be a shoo-in for a Best Young Performer nom at the Critics Choice Awards.
Original Screenplay is also possible, but I don’t think it’s automatic. Tech recognitions in Production Design (which seems especially plausible), Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound, and maybe Visual Effects are feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.
The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.
There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.
The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.
A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.
Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)
17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)
22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)
23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
Dídi
His Three Daughters
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)
8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)
15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Collaboration
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emmanuelle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)
3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
7 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer
3 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.
A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.
We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).
I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).
While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.
You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)
15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)
23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
We Live in Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)
12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15.Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting
Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Count of Monte Cristo
4. Uprising
5. Grand Tour
Other Possibilities:
6. Simon of the Mountain
7. Evil Does Not Exist
8. Emmanuelle
9. Kneecap
10. The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Flow
5. Memoir of a Snail
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2
7. Savages
8. The Most Precious of Cargoes
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
10. Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
8. Gaucho Gaucho
9. Union
10. Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez
7. Conclave
8. Joker: Folie à Deux
9. Queer
10. Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
7. Maria
8. Megalopolis
9. Conclave
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
4. Anora
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
8. Gladiator II
9. Challengers
10. Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Nosferatu
3. A Different Man
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
5. Maria
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. Longlegs
10. Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie à Deux
3. Sing Sing
4. Queer
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Nickel Boys
9. Nosferatu
10. Challengers
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez
2. TBD from Sing Sing
3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. TBD from Moana 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Conclave
9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice
10. Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Blitz
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters
7. Wicked
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Civil War
10. Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
5. Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Blitz
8. Twisters
9. Nosferatu
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked
1 Nomination
The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
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