After playing the Toronto Film Festival in September, Mother, Couch sat around for awhile waiting for distribution. Film Movement picked it up in February and it is slated to hit screens this July. The family dramedy was written and directed by Niclas Larsson and is based a 2020 novel by Jerker Virdborg. Ellen Burstyn plays the first half of the title as she inexplicably and indefinitely sits on a department store furnishing in the second half of the title. This befuddles her children played by Ewan McGregor, Rhys Ifans, and Lara Flynn Boyle. Other costars include Taylor Russell, F. Murray Abraham, and Lake Bell.
Despite a fine cast (including previous winners Burstyn and Abraham), Couch was not a festival highlight according to most critics. The RT score is only 36% and you can count on this pic sitting out awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s not just priests exorcising the demonic spirits in The Exorcist: Believer, a direct sequel to the iconic horror phenomenon from a half century ago. There’s more inclusivity when it comes to the number of faith leaders involved. We have two subjects undergoing the eventual rituals via two teenage girls. David Gordon Green recently redid the Halloween franchise with three pictures that underwhelmed this viewer. He hopes to start a fresh trilogy with Believer. Despite more characters doing the casting out and doubling those being possessed, this relaunch is far from bewitching. Instead it’s a sullen and poorly edited genre exercise that could’ve passed (or failed) as any knockoff of the original. If it weren’t for Ellen Burstyn briefly returning to her Oscar nominated role, slapping The Exorcist moniker on it seems egregious. I suppose it still does. The sixth one is not the devilish charm. Neither were the second, third, fourth, or fifth though pretending they don’t exist doesn’t help.
A prologue shows us the tragic birth of Angela (Lidya Jewett). Her father Victor (Leslie Odom Jr.) is doing photography work in Haiti with his very expectant wife. An earthquake severely injures her to the point where Victor must choose whether she or his unborn daughter live. Thirteen years later, Victor and Angela are living a seemingly normal existence in Georgia. Yet when Angela and her friend Katherine (Olivia O’Neill) try to summon the spirit of her departed mother, they end up disappearing for three days and then returning. If you don’t get the symbolism behind that, the sometimes unintentionally funny screenplay will explain it slowly and obviously.
Slowly is an appropriate word for the first half as Angela and Katherine aren’t exactly themselves upon reemergence. Believer seems to forget that so many Exorcist regurgitations have been foisted upon us. Some have worked. Just none in the official canon (though The Exorcist III has its loopy delights). We know where this is headed and Green’s restart plods along in the known directions. Except for one violent outburst, Burstyn’s return is largely forgettable and a little pointless.
The interfaith participation in saving the girls is a slightly new wrinkle. By the third act, the Catholics are sitting it out and a hodgepodge of would be saviors step in to fill the void. This includes Ann Dowd as Victor’s neighbor (who takes over for the priest because she wanted to be a nun), a Hoodoo practicer, a Baptist, and a Pentecostal preacher. If these characters had walked into a bar, maybe a more lively movie would’ve resulted. Instead they walk into a procedure we’ve seen time and again. A double exorcism does not double the thrills. This was shocking and shockingly well-made (not to mention scary as hell) in 1973. Now it’s unsurprisingly bland.
Universal Pictures hopes to scare up big business in the first full weekend of October with The Exorcist: Believer. It’s the only new release coming out after a handful of pics were out this past frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
David Gordon Green’s direct sequel to the 1973 horror classic (with Ellen Burstyn returning to her Oscar nominated role) looks to be a financial success like the filmmaker’s recent Halloween trilogy. I’m thinking it might accomplish that goal and my forecast is at the higher end of its anticipated range at over $30 million.
All holdovers seem destined to slide a spot. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie had a better than anticipated start (more on that below) and the sophomore dip should be the smallest of last weekend’s newcomers. Falls for Saw X and The Creator should be heftier with The Nun II rounding out the top five in its fifth outing.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $31.9 million
2. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
4. The Creator
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie eclipsed the earnings of its 2021 predecessor (which opened during the COVID challenges) and was easily the top dog of the weekend with $22.7 million. That’s ahead of my $16.3 million call as the animated sequel based on the Nickelodeon series brought in family audiences.
Saw X, which surprisingly received the best reviews of the nearly 20-year-old franchise, was second and slightly beat projections with $18.3 million. I went lower with $15.7 million. That’s an improvement over previous entries Jigsaw (2017) and Spiral (2021) while a far cry from the $30M+ that earlier editions managed.
I was off base in saying sci-fi thriller The Creator from Gareth Edwards would capture the #1 position. With a third place premiere at $14 million, it fell short of my $17.9 million take. Look for it to fade quickly as its overseas grosses were also underwhelming.
The Nun II, after three weeks in 1st, was fourth with $4.7 million. My prediction? $4.7 million! The four-week tally is a sturdy $76 million.
I failed to see that The Blind might be in the top 5. Recounting the early days of Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson, the Fathom Events feature did manage the 5 spot with $4.3 million and $5.1 million since its Thursday bow.
The final wide release was Dumb Money as it expanded nationwide and disappeared in seventh with $3.3 million (I said $5.5 million). The overall three-week gross is a weak $7 million.
The Exorcist: Believer looks to scare up big box office numbers when it debuts October 6th. It serves as a direct sequel to William Friedkin’s classic from 50 years ago (ignoring the four sequels/reboots) with Ellen Burstyn reprising her role from the original. Costars include Leslie Odom, Jr., Ann Dowd, Jennifer Nettles, Norbert Leo Butz, Lidya Jewett, and Olivia Marcum. David Gordon Green, who relaunched the Halloween franchise to impressive grosses, takes on this series and there’s a sequel already planned.
Believer was originally slated for an October Friday the 13th start before Taylor Swift took over that weekend with her Eras Tour experience. With a one-week head start, this should manage to capitalize on franchise familiarity. I believe enough horror fans will turn out to give this a debut on the higher end of its expected range. That might mean a gross in the low 30s vicinity.
The Exorcist: Believer opening weekend prediction: $31.9 million
Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman is my third Case Of post for the five women vying in the seemingly wide open Best Actress race. If you missed my previous posts covering Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), they’re here:
Other than legions of The Crown viewers, many filmgoers have known Ms. Kirby primarily for action fare like Hobbs & Shaw and Mission: Impossible – Fallout. That changed in 2020 with acclaimed roles in the period piece The World to Come and especially with Pieces of a Woman, the Netflix drama that drew across the board raves for the actress. No frontrunner has truly emerged in this Best Actress competition and it actually feels like any of the five could win. She’s one of only two Oscar nominees in the BAFTA derby this weekend (alongside Frances McDormand in Nomadland) and she could take it.
The Case Against Vanessa Kirby
This marks Piece‘s one and only nod (Ellen Burstyn was a contender in supporting and didn’t make the cut). Barring a BAFTA victory, Kirby would go into Oscar night with zero significant precursor awards. Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) took the Golden Globe. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) got the SAG and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) achieved the Critics Choice prize. The film itself some mixed critical reaction.
The Verdict
Of the five hopefuls, Kirby probably ranks fifth in terms of getting it. Yet I can’t stress enough that it’s a crapshoot at the moment and anything could happen.
My Case Of posts will continue with Anthony Hopkins in The Father…
February 21st was the last date I published Oscar predictions and a lot has changed since then. We have had the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The PGA nominations came out today. All of those events have altered categories below. This also serves as the penultimate estimates as the actual nominations come out a week from today!
Let me break down the big changes in the major races:
In Best Picture, it’s Judas and the Black Messiah in my projected nine nominees. I have finally eliminated Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods from the mix. Contrary to several prognosticators and despite its notable PGA omission, I still have News of the World on my board. Titles like Sound of Metal and The Father still lurk.
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) makes her first appearance for Best Director and that drops Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Steven Yeun (Minari) vaults into the Actor race with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) falling. In fact, I now only have Bloods getting one nomination and that’s Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor. I’m not super confident in that anymore since he appears to a heavy favorite to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The fifth slot for Supporting Actor is now filled by David Strathairn (Nomadland) over Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Maria Bakalova’s comedic work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nabs the fifth Supporting Actress spot over Helena Zengel (News of the World).
In addition to these changes, we have new number ones in Best Picture (Nomadland over Trial), Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah over Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial), and Supporting Actress (The Father‘s Olivia Colman over Hillbilly Elegy‘s Glenn Close).
Now… about Supporting Actress. While Boseman, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Kaluuya can rightly be called front runners in their respective categories, I’ve never seen Supporting Actress more wide open. I have Colman listed at #1 because she’s the only performer that I’m saying gets a nod with relative confidence. There’s no favorite (or favourite if you will) at the moment. Maybe the SAG Awards will help clear it up. Doubtful.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions up this Friday!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. The Father (PR: 11)
12. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Another Round
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
7. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
9. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 7)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 8)
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
10. Alan Kim, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Soul (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Cow (PR: 5)
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
9. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10, Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Collective (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. La Llorona (PR: 9)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
9. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. The Glorias (PR: 8)
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 10)
9. The Little Things (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The Little Things (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “lo Si” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 8)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 9)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Emma (PR: 2)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Greyhound (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Mulan (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
This equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers:
13 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Minari
5 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Soul, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Da 5 Bloods, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
It’s a good week for News of the World and Minari and not so much for The Father with my latest Oscar prediction updates. News is back in my estimated nine Picture nominees and that drops The Father out. Da 5 Bloods is clinging ever so slightly to the nine spot with Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father, and Sound of Metal hot on its heels.
In Director, I’m replacing Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) over Florian Zeller (The Father). In Supporting Actress, Helena Zengel’s Globes/SAG nominated turn in News of the World makes the final cut replacing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm).
And there’s a new #1 in Actress with Carey Mulligan nabbing the pole position over Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
You can read about all the movement below! And on a side note, I will have winner predictions for the Golden Globes (airing February 28) up later this week.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 11)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. The Father (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 7)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 5)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 3)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 9)
9. La Llorona (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Emma (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
8. The Glorias (PR: 8)
9. News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Little Things (PR: 10)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 10)
8. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 9)
9. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
9. Mulan (PR: 9)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Soul (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
8. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
That works out to these pictures grabbing these numbers in term of nominations:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World
6 Nominations
Minari, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
3 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Boys State, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Welcome to Chechnya, Wolfwalkers
We are now precisely one month away from nominations in this elongated Oscar season! The big development from last week was the release of shortlists in six categories covering feature length titles: Documentary Feature, International Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. That’s why you’ll see significant changes in those races particularly…
Yet that’s not all as I’ve swapped out some performers and movies in five top tier competitions.
In Best Picture, Promising Young Woman is in my estimated nine and that takes out News of the World
The fifth slot for Best Actress now goes to Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday and this drops Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead
For the first time, I’m listing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) in Supporting Actress. That means Ellen Burstyn (who’s missed SAG and Globe nods) is on the outside looking in
The screenplay races both have alterations with Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Original Screenplay (over Da 5 Bloods) and First Cow back in Adapted over I’m Thinking of Ending Things
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 6)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Soul (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 7)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 9)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Dissident
Totally Under Control
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
7. La Llorona (PR: 9)
8. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
9. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. The Glorias (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Little Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Mulan
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
The Little Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 9)
7. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 10)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Mulan (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Father
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Greyhound (PR: 8)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 9)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bloodshot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Greyhound
Wonder Woman 1984
Sonic the Hedgehog
The Call of the Wild
That shakes out to these films getting these numbers in terms of nods:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World
3 Nominations
Emma, Promising Young Woman, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
It was a major week in terms of Oscar forecasting as the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were unveiled this week. You can read all about my reactions to both of those announcements right here:
So… what’s changed? We start in Best Picture with Minari getting back into my estimated nine nominees with Judas and the Black Messiah dropping out. Truth be told, spots 6-11 in the BP derby seem to be constantly moving. Other prognosticators have taken Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods out of the mix after its Globes shutout, but I’m not there yet (especially after its SAG Ensemble nod).
However, I am replacing Spike Lee with Regina King in the Best Director race. In Best Actress, Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) gets the wide open 5 spot over Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie).
The other acting races remain the same as I’ve kept Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) in Supporting Actress despite her snubs from the Globes and SAG. I definitely toyed with including Helena Zengel (News of the World) over her (she was nominated for both) and that still could happen, but not this week.
Even more surprising was the Globe & SAG omissions of Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. He’s still clinging to #5 in my predicted nominees. In Supporting Actor, everyone was rather shocked to see Jared Leto (The Little Things) make the list in this week’s nominations. He vaults up to #6 in my possibilities in his first initial ranking, but I still can’t pull the trigger on the Academy naming him.
This Tuesday marks another significant date as we march towards the March 15th nominations. The shortlists will be announced for the following races: Best Documentary Feature Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. You can count on those lists altering my estimates next weekend, as they always do.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm & Marie
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. First Cow (PR: 5)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Totally Under Control (PR: 4)
7. Boys State (PR: 6)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
4. Two of Us (PR: 8)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)
9. La Llorona (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
My Little Sister
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Glorias (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pinocchio
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
10. “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Greyhound (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Mank (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Life Ahead, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
Jared Leto strikes again! Ellen Burstyn and Delroy Lindo are 0 for 2 with the Golden Globes and SAG! Minari and Da 5 Bloods get much needed boosts after a rough go at the Globes!
These are some of the headlines from this morning’s SAG Award nominations, which are traditionally a more accurate barometer on what the Academy might do when it comes to their unveilings (happening March 15).
As I did yesterday with the Globes, let’s break down each category, how I did, and what I think it all means.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
Minari needed a good showing here after receiving just one nod at Globes and it did so with SAG. It got in over my predicted Mank, which had a subpar performance today (more on that below). This could be where Trial ends up shining with a win, but it’s a strong competition this year.
Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Leading Role
Nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 4/5
The Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan bunching looks solid for the Academy’s eventual list. It’s the fifth spot that’s up for grabs and Adams got in over Zendaya (Malcom & Marie). Look for Adams, Zendaya, and potentially Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) to vie for it.
Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
How I Did: 4/5
The headline here is Delroy Lindo’s work in Da 5 Bloods has been snubbed by the Globes and SAG and that certainly puts his Oscar chances in serious jeopardy. This is also another shot in the arm for Minari with Yeun making the cut over Lindo. At this juncture, Ahmed/Boseman/Hopkins/Oldman looking good for the Academy. Whether Lindo can rebound is the question.
Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch! If anything, this morning proved just how open this race is. The genuine surprise is Amanda Seyfried not being named for Mank. I believe she could win the Oscar (as could Close), so her omission is noticeable. It is worth mentioning that Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk missed here in 2018 and wound up taking gold with the Academy. I also didn’t have Yuh-jung or Zengel in favor of Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) and Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite). Burstyn has also been blanked with the Globes not honoring her yesterday. And Zengel has nabbed nods from both branches so her Oscar visibility is on the rise. This is also a boost for Bakalova.
Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
How I Did: 4/5
Gotta start with Leto obviously. Yesterday, perhaps the most significant Globes shocker was Leto getting in. Today… SAG follows suit. So the possibility of his Oscar nomination is quite real. Leto gets in over my prediction of Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey. At this point, Baron Cohen/Boseman/Kaluuya/Odom Jr. should be in for Oscar with the fifth slot a head scratcher. It could be filled by performers who missed the Globes/SAG cut such as Paul Raci in Sound of Metal or Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7. There’s also Globe nominee Bill Murray for On the Rocks. Or perhaps Mr. Leto keeps rolling…
Finally, I didn’t do predictions for the sixth category: Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. They are: Da 5 Bloods, Mulan, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Wonder Woman 1984.
Today’s nominations give the following pictures these numbers in terms of nods:
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 Nominations
The Father, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World, One Night in Miami
1 Nomination
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Little Things, Mank, Mulan, Nomadland, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Wonder Woman 1984
You can expect updated Oscar estimates (which will certainly take these activities into account) on Sunday!
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