Oscar Predictions: Nyad

In an unusual bit of Oscar history, Annette Bening would probably be a two-time Best Actress recipient if not for Hilary Swank. The latter took home the statue in 1999 for Boys Don’t Cry and Bening was likely runner-up for Best Picture winner American Beauty. In 2004, a late Million Dollar Baby surge gave Swank her second award with Bening’s performance in Being Julia probably in second position.

Nyad has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and November 3rd Netflix streaming debut. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, makers of the Oscar winning doc Free Solo, direct. It casts the five-time nominee as real-life swimmer Diana Nyad and critics are praising her performance. Same goes for costar Jodie Foster (in supporting), a two-time Actress victor like Swank who would also be vying for her sixth overall nod.

Both are possibilities as reviews are sturdy (100% on RT). I don’t think this wades into the Best Picture conversation. Both Actress and Supporting Actress look crowded already, but it would be foolish to discount either of these acting legends. Lucky for Bening, Ms. Swank doesn’t seem to have anything in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Rescue

In 2018, documentary filmmakers Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin had a breakout hit with the climbing tale Free Solo. It took gold for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars. The duo has debuted their latest true life saga The Rescue at Telluride and Toronto.

This story goes below ground in recounting the Tham Luang cave rescue in the summer of 2018. Early reviews from the festival circuit indicate they have made another stunner (100% on Rotten Tomatoes). Based on these reactions, I think it’s safe to assume The Rescue will make one of the five slots in the race that the directors triumphed in three years ago. The only caveat is that the documentary branch of the Academy is sometimes known for shocking snubs.

That said, there’s no doubt that The Rescue is not only in line for a nod, but it is a serious threat to win.