Racing drama F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt looks to finish first this weekend while campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 aims for a strong second. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
The range for F1 could be wide and it wouldn’t surprise me if it topped $50 million. The low bar appears to be in the mid 30s. With mostly solid reviews and fans of the sport likely to turn up (that could be more significant overseas), I’m going with a mid 40s premiere.
I’m definitely going on the lower end of the spectrum for M3GAN 2.0, the follow-up to 2023’s surprise hit. As I wrote in my post, I’m not convinced audiences are clamoring for the title character’s return. My low 20s projection puts it in the runner-up spot though not by much.
Current two-week champ How to Train Your Dragon could lose close to half its sophomore frame crowd for high teens in third. The four and five spot could be close between Elio and 28 Years Later in their second outings. The former had a historically weak debut (more on that below) while 28 Years also kicked off at the bottom portion of its anticipated spread. I suspect Elio will have a much better hold than Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. F1: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.2 million
2. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
How to Train Your Dragon managed to stay atop the charts, but it did have a heftier decline that I figured. The live-action remake of the DreamWorks animated original brought in $36.5 million compared to my $41.6 prediction for $160 million in its initial ten days.
28 Years Later was second with $30 million, not matching my $33.7 million call. While that’s easily the strongest debut of the trilogy (it’s been eighteen years since its predecessor), some prognosticators had this pegged at $35-$40 million. With a so-so B Cinemascore, the dip this weekend could be pronounced.
Pixar experienced its smallest debut ever courtesy of Elio at $20.8 million. I was slightly more generous with $24.5 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the original story struggled to find its family audience as remakes and sequels dominate the season. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends to come (something that occurred with 2023’s Elemental after its uninspired beginning).
Lilo & Stitch was fourth with $9.7 million, eclipsing my $8.1 million take. This live-action remake of an animated property now sits at $386 million after five weeks with $400M+ firmly in its sights.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) as the franchise finale(?) has made $178 million in five weeks.
Finally, Materialists was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.8 million, a bit under my $6.6 million forecast. The ten-day tally is $23 million.
Elio attempts to become the 20th Pixar offering to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Academy Awards. Out this Friday, the sci-fi adventure is co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina. The voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Reviews are generally of the thumbs up variety, but not as laudatory as some other titles from Disney’s subsidiary. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82% with Metacritic at 62. For comparisons sake, Pixar’s Elemental from two years ago was in that range with a 58 on Meta and 73% RT.
That was enough for Elemental to get one of the five Animated Feature slots. It should also be enough for Elio. However, I’m far less confident it will be the 11th winner of the prize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
Of the 23 Best Animated Feature Oscar winners (the category didn’t start until 2001), Disney/Pixar has taken 11 of them. The Mouse Factory itself has picked up an additional four through their traditionally animated tales. One of the Pixar winners is 2015’s Inside Out and the sequel is out this weekend. Kelsey Mann makes his directorial debut with a voice cast including Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Tony Hale, Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, Kensington Tallman, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan.
Due to Disney and Pixar’s aforementioned track record, it’s no surprise that Inside Out 2 was the frontrunner for gold sight unseen. With the review embargo lifted, is that still true? Probably, but it’s not a slam dunk.
Reviews are unsurprisingly positive with a 91% RT score. Some of the reaction has critics in their feels as they say it’s on par with the original that managed a 98% Fresh rating. Other write-ups, while mainly of the thumbs up variety, say it doesn’t match its predecessor.
Disney has lost the Academy’s animated prize for two years running. In 2022, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio defeated Turning Red. Last year, The Boy and the Heron flew by Elemental. If the Oscars were held today, Inside Out 2 would likely emerge victorious. However, the year is only half over and other contenders are hoping to challenge it in the months to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.
Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.
As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.
This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.
I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.
Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
A weekend of precursors culminates on Sunday with the 35th PGA Awards. The 10 nominees in the top race at PGA happen to match the 10 that Oscar put up in Best Picture. There’s two other categories to consider with animated fare and docs. I will walk through all three with a winner prediction and a runner-up possibility.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s not make this complicated, shall we? Oppenheimer should have no trouble taking this as it’s taken all key precursors. 7 of the last 10 PGA victors have ended up as the Academy’s BP (the last diversion was 2019 when 1917 took PGA and Parasite was BP).
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Boy and the Heron has made this category one to watch with Globe and BAFTA trophies. That being said, I think Spidey has the edge with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Mother of All Lies, Smoke Sauna Sisterhood, Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)
Mariupol has cleaned up on its way to a likely Oscar victory and it should emerge here.
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: American Symphony
I’ll have a recap up on the blog after the show on Sunday!
Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).
For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Make-Up & Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
Outstanding British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex
Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Rising Star
Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde
Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi
Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce
That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
5 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
Anatomy of a Fall
1 Win
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.
I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/10
Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.
Director
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/5
Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.
Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/5
Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/5
Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 3/5
Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5
I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 3/5
This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.
Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 4/5
I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.
Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.
Original Song
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 4/5
Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/5
Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.
Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
How I Did: 3/5
Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.
All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Napoleon
2 Nominations
The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
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