The Crow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.

While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.

1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.

The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.

The Crow opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2: Judgment Day

My latest Shoulda Been Oscar Contender is an appropriate one for Mother’s Day. This particular mama went to great lengths to protect her son since, ya know, he was charged with saving the universe decades later from annihilation. She even got herself thrown in a mental hospital because of her heroic efforts.

I’m speaking of Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor in James Cameron’s Terminator 2: Judgment Day. Reprising her role from the 1984 classic, Hamilton stepped up her game in the 1991 sequel alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger and Edward Furlong as her future Earth saving teen.

Terminator 2 was a game changer itself when it came to special effects and action. It resulted in six Oscar nominations, including victories for Makeup, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, and (of course) Visual Effects. Yet nods in the biggest categories were elusive. 1991 was a strong year in Best Actress with Jodie Foster winning for The Silence of the Lambs over the sturdy competition of Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for Thelma & Louise and Laura Dern in Rambling Rose.

However, Hamilton’s strong (and not just her biceps) performance could have easily gotten the fifth slot over Bette Midler in For the Boys. MTV recognized her work and she won Best Actress at their ceremony. And while the Academy isn’t known to honor performances in action flicks, they had deservedly done so just five years earlier for Sigourney Weaver in another heralded genre sequel Aliens (also directed by Cameron).

They missed a good opportunity to do the same here. Lastly, while not every mother is charged with keeping their kid alive to avoid planetary destruction, the great ones sure make us all feel like they do. Happy Mother’s Day to all of them!

Terminator: Dark Fate Box Office Prediction

Arnold Schwarzenegger is back for the fifth time in his signature role with Terminator: Dark Fate next weekend. This time around, there’s some other franchise favorites who’ve gone unseen since 1991’s landmark Terminator 2: Judgment Day. James Cameron shares story credit in what’s being called a direct sequel to the first follow up from 28 years ago (Fate hits theaters just over 35 years after the original). That means you shouldn’t have to keep up with the three subsequent series entries. Also returning are Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor and Edward Furlong as John Connor (a role that’s since been filled by Nick Stahl, Christian Bale, and Jason Clarke). Tim Miller, maker of Deadpool, directs with a supporting cast including Mackenzie Davis, Natalia Reyes, and Gabriel Luna.

Early word of mouth suggests this might be the most solid Terminator flick since 1991 (even though that’s not really saying a whole lot). The franchise hit a low point just over four years ago with Genisys. It was the only sequel not to reach $100 million domestically with at $89 million overall and reviews and audience reaction were poor. The inclusion of some favorites should help some, but this could still suffer from franchise fatigue that we’ve witnessed several times already in 2019.

Using comps for a debut is a little tricky as this is the first sequel not to open on a holiday weekend. Judgment, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, and Genisys all premiered over Independence Day frames. 2009’s Terminator: Salvation rolled out over Memorial Day. For the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of their long weekends, Machines holds the record with $44 million. I don’t believe Fate gets there. The low mark is Genisys with $27 million. I don’t think this falls that low.

My hunch is that mid to high 30s is the likeliest scenario for the Governator and his familiar friends.

Terminator: Dark Fate opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million