Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million
For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.
The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.
Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
Emilia Pérez seems to be both a genre mashup and a Cannes highlight for many thus far. From Jacques Audiard, whose 2009 effort A Prophet took the Grand Prix in the French Riviera and scored a Foreign Language Feature nom at the Oscars, his latest mixes music, crime, and comedy. Karla Sofia Gascón is a drug cartel leader undergoing gender reassignment surgery. Zoe Saldaña is the lawyer providing assistance with Selena Gomez as Gascón’s spouse. Édgar Ramirez also costars.
Audiard is a familiar presence at Cannes. In addition to his aforementioned work from 15 years ago, 2015’s Dheepan won the Palme d’Or. The screening for Emilia has provided some of the fest’s most enthusiastic reaction in its first few days. Called audacious and crowd-pleasing, the RT score is 80% (based on a handful of write-ups).
If Mexico submits this as their choice for International Feature Film (and I suspect they will), the chances to make that final five is high. It could nab more noms than that. Some of it will come down to category placement and that seems uncertain at the moment.
Early word-of-mouth would suggest that Saldaña might be campaigned for in lead Actress with Gascón in supporting. My previous prediction posts had that dynamic switched. This will be altered when I update projections later today. I strongly suspect Gascón will be in my estimated quintet with Saldaña as a possibility in Actress (I’m toying with putting her in my five but she might be just on the outside looking in).
I also believe this could mark Audiard’s first crossover into Best Picture and that could include a nod for the filmmaker himself. While other Cannes titles have hurt their possibilities upon their screenings, it seems like Pérez could be up on the upswing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.
Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.
Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.
Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.
Here’s how I have it shaking out now!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)
23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)
24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)
25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Wicked
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Wang, Dídi
Alex Garland, Civil War
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)
9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
Adam Driver, Megalopolis
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)
13.Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
One thing is for certain – Simon Kinberg’s spy flick The 355 will be the highest grossing movie released in 2022. That’s, of course, because it will be the first and it will hold that title briefly since Scream comes out a week later. Coming out a year after its COVID delay, it marks the second directorial effort from Kinberg (who’s known primarily for his screenwriting). His first was the commercial and critical X-Men misfire Dark Phoenix.
Jessica Chastain, Lupita Nyong’o, Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger, Fan Bingbing, Sebastian Stan, and Edgar Ramirez make up the cast. Two of them (Chastain from The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruz in Parallel Mothers) may find themselves competing against each other for Best Actress at this year’s Oscars.
January is often seen as a dumping ground for material that isn’t expected to make waves at multiplexes. The 355 is slated to be available for streaming on Peacock 45 days after its cinematic debut.
I don’t see this posting impressive numbers and I would certainly be surprised if it manages to top $10 million. It may be lucky to reach even $5 million.
Jungle Cruise, based on the at this point ancient Disney theme park ride, is stocked with bad puns, over plotting, and elaborate adventure set pieces that includes inexplicable Metallica infused orchestral cues. This is a big budget fantasy with two megawatt movie stars and animals that absolutely look CG. There are occasions where the screenwriters don’t feel the need to convince us that the two leads have fallen for each other. That’s just what happens in these thrill rides. That said, I found the picture to be an energetic ball of fun that kids will probably dig on several occasions. It comes close at times to matching the joyfulness of the first Pirates of the Caribbean and mostly avoids the tedium that cursed the sequels to varying degrees.
The film takes place in 1916, two years into World War I or The Great War at the time since the protagonists didn’t know a sequel was coming. Dr. Lily (Emily Blunt) is a botanist who believe she’s found the locale for the Tears of the Moon. That tree is said to break curses and offer healing powers for the ill. She wants to find it to advance medicine, but she lets her haughty yet stylish brother MacGregor (Jack Whitehall) try to sell potential funders. This is not a female friendly era after all. German royal Prince Joachim (Jesse Plemons) wants the Tears for more nefarious purposes. It involves using the Tears for fears and everybody wants to rule the world, don’t they? I can do bad puns too, folks!
Doc Lily and her brother need to find the Tree that is located deep in the Amazon River. Through a series of bumblings, her captain is Frank Wolff (Dwayne Johnson). He arrives with his rinky dink boat, his Jaguar avatar assistant Proxima, and a cast of supporting characters tasked with making the jungle seem more dangerous than it is. The real danger involves obtaining the life force that is the Tree with its magical petals. Not only is the deranged Prince pining for it, but so is the cursed and undead Pirates like Aguirre (Edgar Ramirez) and his minions.
By the time our two leads have been bitten by the love bug, Jungle Cruise gives us numerous action sequences on a majestic scale. Jaume Collet-Serra, best known for directing mid to low budget Liam Neeson genre exercises or horror flicks like The Shallows, accustoms himself well to the Mouse Factory machine. As mentioned, Frank and Lily’s romance might come off a bit shallow and forced. Yet the grand entertainment offered up by their surroundings makes up for it. And Johnson and Blunt certainly have the charisma to carry us on the journey. You could even say that we’re far from the shallow now (bad pun for the win!).
One could nitpick or pay admission to the notion that this mostly delivers on the rendering of its ride translated to the big screen (or wherever you may roam while viewing on Disney Plus). I found it fairly easy to go with the latter.
Debuting in multiplexes and on Disney Plus, Jungle Cruise sails into theaters and couches on Friday hoping for smooth box office returns. Based on the longtime attraction at the Mouse Factory’s theme parks, Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt headline the fantasy adventure from director Jaume Collet-Serra.
The studio has, of course, made a boatload of cash with similar fare. The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise stands at over $4 billion worldwide. That series also earned some Oscar love. In addition to Johnny Depp’s nominated performance in the 2003 original, part 1 nabbed four tech nods in the sound races (when they were divided into categories), Makeup, and Visual Effects. Sequel Dead Men’s Chest earned four mentions in the two sound contests, Art Direction (now Production Design), and Visual Effects (where it won). Threequel At World’s End also won Visual Effects and was nominated in Makeup. The fourth and fifth editions garnered no Academy attention.
The early chatter for Jungle Cruise compares it to more to The Mummy (as in the Brendan Fraser one) and not Pirates. That adventure earned a lone Sound nod in 1999.
So where does Jungle Cruise stand? Reviews are decent with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Sound and Visual Effects are certainly possible. That said, even some of the positive critical reaction isn’t overly kind to the CG effects. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make the shortlist for VE and not make the final five while Sound is a bit iffy as well. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney has certainly had luck basing movies on their theme park quantities before and they hope it continues on July 30th with the release of Jungle Cruise. The adventure pic (with a reported budget north of $200 million) pairs Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Emily Blunt (fresh off her hit sequel A Quiet Place Part II) in the early 20th Century set tale. Costars include Jack Whitehall, Edgar Ramirez, Jesse Plemons, and Paul Giamatti. Jaume Collet-Serra, best known for Liam Neeson action flicks such as Unknown and Non-Stop or horror fare like The Shallows, directs.
As the studio has in 2021 with recent projects like Cruella and Black Widow, this will simultaneously premiere on Disney Plus for an extra viewing fee of $30. That strategy has been called into question in recent days considering the precipitous sophomore drop for Widow. Truth be told, the $30 doesn’t seem so high when factoring in families watching and that could negatively impact theatrical earnings.
The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise (and The Haunted Mansion to a lesser degree) has shown an appetite for these Mouse Factory ride based attractions turned films. The star power of Johnson and Blunt doesn’t hurt either and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see this swing to over $30 million. However, the streaming competition could easily prevent that and I’ll estimate high 20s as it sets sail at multiplexes and at home.
Jungle Cruise opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
French director Olivier Assayas has flirted with Oscar attention before in titles such as CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. Some of that awards chatter for both of them focused on the work of Kristen Stewart, but it never came to fruition.
His latest is the Stewart free WaspNetwork which follows a group of Cuban spies in 1990s Miami. The cast includes Penelope Cruz, Edgar Ramirez, Gael Garcia Bernal, and Ana de Armas. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend to mixed results with IndieWire deeming it a misfire.
Assayas is certainly a filmmaker with a critical following, but it appears Wasp will not fly onto the radar screen of Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Stephen Gaghan’s Gold tells another fairly recent “inspired by true events” tale of excess and greed. Instead of nefarious Wall Street types (though they’re here), our story takes place in the gold mining industry. Kenny Wells (Matthew McConaughey) is a third generation prospector trying to keep his business Washoe afloat.
A prologue shows happier times for the company in 1981. At that juncture, Kenny’s dad (Craig T. Nelson) is running it successfully and his offspring is merrily working at it. Seven years later, dad has passed and son isn’t so lucky. He runs Washoe from a bar where he indulges in their key product heavily.
Kenny has a dream that leads him to Indonesia to seek out Michael Acosta (Edgar Ramirez), a geologist who’s also run into lean times. They believe there might be gold in them Indonesian mountains. Finding it isn’t easy and Kenny even catches malaria, but eventually their fortunes turn.
As the company becomes an extremely hot commodity, Kenny must stave off the vultures of the corporate world, his competitors, third world governments, and the FBI. He also must battle his own issues, which includes the fact that he’s way out of his league suddenly running an operation of its size.
Gold is McConaughey’s show and we get the full Matthew here. That means effective dramatic moments mixed with comedic and quirky ones. He goes through a physical transformation here as he’s done before. Here, the effects of Kenny’s constant boozing shows. MagicMike physique Matthew is nowhere to be found.
There’s plenty to admire about the lead actor’s work here. The problem is that none of the other characters are very interesting. Bryce Dallas Howard is Kenny’s wife and their relationship goes through the familiar ups and down that massive success brings. Ramirez’s Michael is a bit of a blank slate for most of the running time.
There are a couple of legit crises after Kenny hits its big. One is quite a surprise in the third act and it left me wishing the screenplay spent more time on it. Another involves shady Indonesian politicos and it might have been another subplot worth exploring. It could have provided a chance to give us characters matching the dynamism of what McConaughey brings.
Yet the screenplay doesn’t go there. While its star provides some memorable moments, too much of the rest of Gold feels standard.
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