If nothing else, Sony Pictures Animation’s The Emoji Movie will go down in film lore as having Sir Patrick Stewart provide the voice of what is commonly called the “poop emoji”. He’s one of several famous faces lending voice to those things we send on our phones all day. They include T.J. Miller, Anna Faris, James Corden, Sofia Vergara, Christina Aguilera, and Rob Riggle.
The reported $50 million budgeted 3D computer-animated comedy isn’t the first pic based on something we associate with our iPhones and droids. That would be last summer’s The Angry Birds Movie, which debuted to $38 million. I don’t see Emoji quite reaching those numbers, yet I don’t see it as low as the $23 million earned out of the gate for this summer’s Captain Underpants, another non-sequel ‘toon.
I am forecasting this will basically fall between those debuts. In doing so, it may create a serious three-way battle for box office supremacy next weekend with the premiere of Atomic Blonde and the second weekend of Dunkirk.
The Emoji Movie opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
We are more than halfway through this grand experiment called 2017 and, thus far, there’s been no sure-fire contender for Best Picture released. There are some massive hits that’ll have their admirers calling for inclusion – GetOut, WonderWoman, WarforthePlanetoftheApes, Logan. There are smaller films that stand shots – TheBigSick and TheBeguiled. Truth be told, all of these titles are long shots for being nominated for the big prize with the possible exception of Sick.
However, this Friday looks to change the dynamic with the release of Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. The World War II action drama had its review embargo lifted this afternoon and some of the critical reaction has been rapturous. It stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes and here’s a sampling of the praise: Entertainment Weekly calls it the best movie of the year so far. The Hollywood Reporter says it’s a masterpiece. indieWire says it’s Nolan’s greatest achievement.
Bottom line: it definitely looks as if Dunkirk will be nominated for Best Picture and that Nolan will find himself among the five in Best Director. The film could also play in a host of technical and down the line categories, including both Sound races, Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Original Score, and Production Design. It probably won’t receive much attention in the acting slots and maybe not even Original Screenplay (the gloriously directed action is said to do the real talking here).
If Dunkirk is among the five to ten flicks nominated, it would be Nolan’s second picture to get recognition after 2010’s Inception. As you may recall, a lot of movie lovers cried foul when 2008’s TheDarkKnight didn’t end up on the short list. With Dunkirk, it represents the first release of the year that seems more destined for Oscar attention than not.
Blogger’s Note (07/19/17): I’ve revised my GirlsTrip number to $27.3 million, up from $20.3 million in original post below.
A trio of newcomers hit multiplexes this weekend: Christopher Nolan’s WWII action drama Dunkirk, Luc Besson’s sci-fi spectacle Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and raunchy and critically lauded comedy Girls Trip with Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Dunkirk should appeal to adult moviegoers ready for something other than sequels and reboots. I have it slated to debut at #1 with a mid 40s haul and it will likely play well in subsequent weekends through the month of August.
War for the Planet of the Apes should lose over half its audience and drop to second. More on its opening below.
The real battle could be for the three-five spots. Spider-Man: Homecoming may lose a bit over 50% in weekend #3 after a larger than expected dip in its sophomore frame. I believe Girls Trip has breakout success potential. While it’s been a weak summer for comedies, Girls is garnering solid reviews and I think it opens to just over $20 million.
In my estimation, that puts the massively budgeted Valerian in fifth. It could certainly top $20 million, but my gut has it under that figure. The pic should perform better overseas.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $44.7 million
2. GirlsTrip
Predicted Gross: $27.3 million
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
Box Office Results (July 14-16)
Critically heralded three-quel War for the Planet of the Apes dethroned Spider-Man for the top spot, earning $56.2 million. This falls under my $63.4M prediction. War played less like its predecessor Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which made $72 million for its start and more like 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which debuted with $54 million. While a decent showing, this is on the lower end of expectations for what War would accomplish.
Spider-Man: Homecoming fell a steep 61% for second with $44.2 million (I was higher at $55.2M). Spidey’s full inclusion into the MCU has amassed $207 million in its first ten days.
Despicable Me 3 held up a bit better than my projection in third with $19.3 million (I said $17M). The Dreamworks animated three-quel stands at $188 million in three weeks.
Baby Driver was fourth with $8.7 million (I said $7.8M) and its total is at $73 million. Surpassing the century mark looks within its grasp.
Kumail Nanjiani’s well reviewed romantic comedy The Big Sick expanded nationwide for a fifth place showing of $7.5 million. My prediction? $7.5 million! I would expect solid word-of-mouth will have this experiencing fairly small drops in upcoming weekends.
Wonder Woman was sixth with $6.8 million (I went with $6.1M) to bring its startling gross to $380 million. Barring some sort of totally unforeseen late summer surprise, it now appears as if Gal Gadot’s spin-off pic will be this season’s highest earner (something that was practically unthinkable just a couple of months ago).
Debuting in seventh was horror entry Wish Upon, which failed to scare up much business with just $5.4 million (I said $5.9M).
And that will do it for now folks! Until next time…
Director Luc Besson has cultivated a following over the past quarter century and the devotion of his admirers will be put to the test when Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets debuts next weekend. The big-budget sci-fi pic is based on a popular French comic book series and it’s been a passion project for Besson for many years.
Dane DeHaan, Cara Delevingne, Rihanna, Clive Owen, Ethan Hawke, and Rutger Hauer are among the cast in this production which reportedly cost at least $180 million to produce. Some of Besson’s works have turned into ones with devoted cult status, including 1994’s The Professional and 1997’s The Fifth Element. His last pic, 2014’s Lucy, was a box office success. However, that may have had more to do with Scarlett Johansson’s involvement fresh off The Avengers.
Critical reaction thus far has been a treat to follow. It stands at a decent 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, with many writers praising its visuals and sheer audacity. Yet it’s not often a picture with that high a Tomatoes score is also deemed by The Hollywood Reporter as the worst movie watching experience of the year.
Valerian is expected to and will likely do considerably better overseas than stateside. Competition on this side of the pond is significant – Dunkirk opens the same weekend, War for the Planet of the Apes will be in its sophomore weekend, and Spider-Man: Homecoming in its third.
My suspicion is that Besson’s latest could rank third among the newbies next weekend. That would be behind Dunkirk (which is a given) and Girls Trip (which is starting to look like a sleeper hit). Bottom line: the studio better bank on a pleasing European haul.
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets opening weekend prediction: $17.8 million
Christopher Nolan is one of the few directors whose name can bring in audiences and his box office power will be tested next weekend when Dunkirk lands in theaters. The World War II pic looks to appeal to action fans, as well as adult moviegoers looking for something beyond sequels and reboots. Reviews are embargoed until Monday, but early word of mouth is quite solid. There could be even be Oscar buzz for categories outside of the expected technical nominations it should nab.
The cast is a mix of relative unknowns (Fionn Whitehead, Tom Glynn-Carney, Jack Lowden) and more familiar faces (Tom Hardy, Kenneth Branagh, Cillian Murphy, Mark Rylance). Early forecasts for its opening weekend potential have ranged everywhere from $30 million to possibly $60 million.
My feeling is that it will basically fall between that. Five of Nolan’s last six pictures have made over $45 million out of the gate (the outlier is 2006’s The Prestige). Of course, there’s the Dark Knight trilogy, which doesn’t serve as any sort of fair comparison. The better comps in the director’s filmography are 2010’s Inception and his last effort, 2014’s Interstellar. The former made $62 million and had the benefit of being Nolan’s follow-up to the phenomenon that was 2008’s The Dark Knight. The latter earned $47 million for its start.
I believe Dunkirk will experience a very similar opening to Interstellar with a great chance that it will experience smallish drop-offs in subsequent weekends and play well throughout the month of August.
Dunkirk opening weekend prediction: $44.7 million
For my Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets prediction, click here:
Over this holiday weekend, Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver has become quite the little engine that could box office success story. The critically lauded mash-up action thriller musical comedy has taken in $30 million since its Wednesday debut, standing out as original programming in a season filled with sequels and reboots.
So the question is: could Oscar notice? While Driver is not normally the type of flick that Academy voters celebrate, there is bound to be a significant contingent of admirers that will push for its inclusion in Best Picture and Director.
It probably won’t happen, but it’s feasible. I’ll also throw out the possibility that it could contend in both Sound races: Mixing and Editing, as well as maybe Editing itself. Of course, the sound races will likely feature heavyweights such as Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Blade Runner 2049 and others. However, much of Driver’s praise has focused on its pulsating soundtrack throughout.
When Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters next weekend, it will do so as one of the most critically acclaimed entries of a franchise that began 15 years ago. The superhero reboot currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes with many critics praising the work of new Spidey Tom Holland and Michael Keaton as main villain Vulture.
Homecoming is the sixth picture of the series. Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man in 2002 landed two Oscars nods – Best Visual Effects and Sound Mixing. Its 2004 sequel scored three – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (for which it won). The following three efforts – 2007’s Spider-Man 3 and 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 sequel with Andrew Garfield – received zero nominations.
The new web slinger reboot is one of three comic book pics in 2017 that have earned rave reviews, along with Logan and Wonder Woman. I do anticipate there will be significant chatter as to whether one of them becomes the first superhero flick to get a Best Picture nomination. That said, I suspect the bulk of that speculation will center on Wonder Woman and not this. It could manage to be included in Visual Effects, but competition already appears strong with the likes of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Dunkirk, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Blade Runner 2049, War for the Planet of the Apes, and others.
Happy New Year y’all and hope you’re enjoying your first day of 2017!
For my inaugural post of the year, I’m giving you 17 of my eagerly awaited pictures hitting screens this year. They’re listed alphabetically and represent some circles on the calendar for yours truly.
Here’s to a great year at the movies!h
Alien: Covenant
Release Date: May 19
The sixth installment of the Alien franchise is a sequel to 2013’s Prometheus, which received a deserved mixed reaction. Ridley Scott is back behind the director’s chair with Michael Fassbender returning and Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, and Danny McBride among the supporting players. There is also expected to be an alien involved.
AllEyezonMe
Release Date: June 16
Benny Boom is known for directing many well-known hip hop videos, but this feature tells the tale of one of America’s finest rappers – Tupac Shakur. Newcomer Demetrius Shipp, Jr. plays the late performer.
BeautyandtheBeast
Release Date: March 17
Disney has found tremendous success with their live-action remakes of animated classics and this reworking of the 1991 Best Picture nominee is likely to follow suit. Bill Condon directs with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast.
BladeRunner2049
Release Date: October 6
Arriving 35 years after Ridley Scott’s heralded science fiction experience, Arrival director Denis Villeneuve brings back this noirish world with Harrison Ford back as Deckard alongside Ryan Gosling.
ACureforWellness
Release Date: February 17
Talented director Gore Verbinski has made some impressive pics – TheRing and the first PiratesoftheCaribbean among them. He’s also had some not so impressive ones, including the Pirates sequels and TheLoneRanger. This psychological horror thriller looks like it could be a return to form.
TheDarkTower
Release Date: July 28
For many years, a number of filmmakers have attempted to bring Stephen King’s novel to the screen. It’s finally happened with Matthew McConaughey and Idris Elba starring.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Dunkirk
Release Date: July 21
Anything from Christopher Nolan has earned our anticipation and so it goes with this World War II effort featuring Tom Hardy and Kenneth Branagh.
GhostintheShell
Release Date: March 31
Based on the wildly popular Japanese comic book series, Scarlett Johansson headlines the sci-fi action thriller.
GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol. 2
Release Date: May 5
Summer ’17 kicks off with Star Lord, Rocket, and Lil Groot back on screen after their acclaimed first foray into the Marvel Cinematic Universe in 2014.
JusticeLeague
Release Date: November 17
Speaking of superheroes, DC has Batman (Ben Affleck), Superman (Henry Cavill), Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot – who has her own stand-alone pic this summer), Aquaman (Jason Momoa), and the Flash (Ezra Miller) joining forces.
Kong: SkullIsland
Release Date: March 10
The giant ape is back for the first time in 12 years in this 1970s set blockbuster hopeful boasting a first-rate cast that includes Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman and John C. Reilly.
Logan
Release Date: March 3
17 years after first creating his signature role, Hugh Jackman is Wolverine for (apparently) the final time.
TheMummy
Release Date: June 9
The Universal monsters reassemble in this reboot that stars Tom Cruise, Russell Crowe, and lotsa hopefully cool CG.
MurderontheOrientExpress
Release Date: November 22
This property based on the Agatha Christie Book was adapted successfully in the mid 70s by director Sidney Lumet. This time around, Kenneth Branagh is behind the camera with an all-star cast that includes Johnny Depp, Daisy Ridley, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Josh Gad, Michael Pena and Michelle Pfeiffer.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Spider–Man: Homecoming
Release Date: July 7
After making a nice impression in CaptainAmerica: CivilWar, Tom Holland is the third actor to portray the title superhero. Michael Keaton, Marisa Tomei, and Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark costar.
StarWars: EpisodeVIII
Release Date: December 15
The still untitled follow-up to TheForceAwakens is pretty much unquestionably going to be 2017’s highest earner. Expect considerably more screen time for Mark Hamill’s Luke and sadly, Carrie Fisher’s final screen appearance as Leia.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
WarforthePlanetoftheApes
Release Date: July 14
Kong isn’t the only big-budget monkey business happening onscreen as the third installment of this franchise finds Andy Serkis’s Caesar returning and Woody Harrelson joining the mix.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 