Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:
The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.
We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.
Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I think it will play out:
1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $42.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $17.4 million
4. Immaculate
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 15-17)
Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.
Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.
Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.
Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.
Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).
Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.
Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.
The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.
Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.
Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:
1. Kung Fu Panda4
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $29.4 million
3. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. Love Lies Bleeding
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (March 8-10)
DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.
Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.
In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.
Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.
Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.
If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.
Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.
That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.
Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $40.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
3. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 1-3)
I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.
After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.
Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.
Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.
Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.
Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $83.6 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.
Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.
Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.
Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.
Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.
Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.
Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.
At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.
I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.
Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million
In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.
The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.
Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.
Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.
Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).
That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Lisa Frankenstein
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
2. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.
The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.
Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.
Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.
Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.
Blogger’s Update II (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
**Blogger’s Update (11/07): It turns out Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is indeed staying in theaters and I’m putting it in second with an anticipated drop in the mid 30s
The Marvel Cinematic Universe should have no trouble hitting #1 again with The Marvels, but the premiere is expected to be well on the low end of the now 33 pics in the franchise. We also have the faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem and the wide expansion of Oscar hopeful The Holdovers out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
As of now, I have The Marvels having the third lowest MCU opening in its decade and a half run. It could possibly have the smallest of them all if it debuts below the $55 million that The Incredible Hulk (the second feature of the bunch) started with in 2008. **Keep an eye on this post through Thursday to see if my projection dwindles.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, should slide to second. Its sophomore frame saw a gigantic plummet (more on that below). The third weekend shouldn’t be as dramatic a fall, but the 60-65% range is certainly possible.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, per a previous announcement, is allegedly finished with its box office run after amassing $166 million domestically and easily setting concert pic records. That’s why you won’t find it in my projected five. If that dynamic changes, I’d place it in third or probably even second.
The 3-5 spots, therefore, should be a mix of Killers of the Flower Moon, Journey to Bethlehem, and The Holdovers and you could make decent arguments for the order. I’ve got it close.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $46.3 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
3. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
4. Journey to Bethlehem
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. The Holdovers
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (November 3-5)
November began with a whimper with the worst frame of 2023 thus far. As you may recall, this was the weekend Dune: Part Two was supposed to come out before its pushback to spring 2024.
That left Five Nights at Freddy’s in first place despite a gargantuan 76% drop to $19 million. I was more generous at $27.6 million. Even with its clearly front loaded business, the PG-13 horror flick (which is also available on Peacock) has delivered $113 million in its first ten days of release.
With scant competition in the marketplace, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour eased just 12% for second place with $13.5 million. That remarkable hold placed it well above my $8.3 million take. As mentioned, it has finished (?) its run at $166 million as streamers mount a bidding war for the rights.
Killers of the Flower Moon also held better than I figured for third in its third weekend with $6.8 million. I went with $5.8 million. The Oscar contender has taken in $52 million.
Priscilla performed respectably in fourth with $5 million, besting my $3.9 million call. The biopic had a similar per theater average to Ms. Swift’s fourth frame gross. The performance represents earnings at the top end of its anticipated range.
I incorrectly didn’t make a call for Radical, the well-reviewed dramedy with Eugenio Derbez. It rounded out the top five with $2.6 million on just over 400 screens. That gave it the highest average of any movie in the top ten.
My #5 pick was After Death at $3.2 million. Yet it was all the way down in 8th (behind The Exorcist: Believer and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie) with $2 million after its 60% slide.
Finally, I had the Meg Ryan rom com What Happens Later (a phrase not used in many years) making $1.7 million. It came in slightly below that at $1.5 million for ninth position.
The Creator, out Friday, marks the first feature from Gareth Edwards since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story from 2016. The sci-fi thriller with John David Washington is said to be a visual feast. Reviews themselves are mostly on the plus side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score.
When Dune: Part Two was pushed back to 2024, the easy frontrunner for Visual Effects went with it. Now the VE competition is far more open with hopefuls like Oppenheimer and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (hoping to be the MCU’s first winner) in the mix.
It’s a strong possibility that The Creator is too. If so, it would mark the filmmaker’s second nod in a row for VE (Rogue lost to The Jungle Book seven years back). That’s likely to be the only race where this contends. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 