Tag: Dune: Part Two

April 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:

Abigail Box Office Prediction
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction
Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.

Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.

As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Abigail

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

2. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Spy x Family Code: White

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (April 12-14)

Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.

Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.

Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.

In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Here’s the first snapshot…

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Edward Berger, Conclave

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Alex Garland, Civil War

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Sean Wang, Dídi

Best Picture is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Arcadian

Nicolas Cage’s movie this month is the post-apocalyptic horror tale Arcadian from director Ben Brewer. Out this weekend, it costars Jaeden Martell of It fame and Maxwell Jenkins as Cage’s twin sons. It was first screened at South by Southwest to mostly complimentary notices. The RT score is 85%.

The trio must battle dangerous creatures when the sun sets. Some reviews say the monstrous visual effects are its strongest feature. Yet I question whether Arcadian will still be in the minds of voters for that category many months down the road. And there will likely be potential heavy hitters in VE coming our way this summer and beyond. That’s in addition to Dune: Part Two which is already the frontrunner. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Challengers

Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?

It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.

A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Civil War Box Office Prediction

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Beast

Taking its source material from a Henry James novella penned over 120 years ago, Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast is set 20 years in the future (with jumps back to 1910 and 2014). Léa Seydoux (recently seen in Dune: Part Two) and George MacKay headline with Guslagie Malanda and Dasha Nekrasova supporting. The sci-fi romance premiered at the Venice Film Festival last autumn and has made its way stateside after a French start in February.

86% of critics are fresh for what’s described as a tense art movie. Some reviewers are saying it doesn’t completely succeed, but give it points for the try. I don’t expect this to be something that the Academy takes notice of. I wouldn’t be surprised if it develops a cult following from genre enthusiasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.

This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Drew Starkey, Queer

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Willem Dafoe, Kinds of Kindness

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Adam Pearson, A Diffrent Man

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Denzel Washington, Gladiator 2

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction
The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.

With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.

The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.

The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

2. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The First Omen

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 29-31)

March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.

Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.

Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.

Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 29-31 Box Office Predictions

The fifth entry in the MonsterVerse series stomps into theaters this weekend with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. It is the sole wide release newcomer over the Easter frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire Box Office Prediction

The latest battle royale between iconic creatures should easily top the charts. Predecessor Godzilla vs. Kong still faced COVID challenges in 2021 and I think Empire should have no trouble surpassing its low 30s start. My estimate puts this just ahead of 2019’s premiere for Godzilla: King of the Monsters.

After an opening right in line with expectations (more on that below), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire should slide to second (big weekend for sequels ending in the word empire by the way). How far it dips is worth monitoring. 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot fell 54% after mediocre word-of-mouth in its sophomore outing. 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife eased 45%, but it had the advantage of weekend #2 taking place over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’m basically splitting the difference with Empire experiencing a decline approaching 50%.

Holdover sequels Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 should populate the three and four slots with mid 40s drops. The five spot should be between Immaculate and Arthur the King.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $52.2 million

2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $11 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

5. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (March 22-24)

The Ghostbusters franchise has been pretty darn consistent over the last near decade. The aforementioned reboot from 2016 with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig debuted with $46 million. Afterlife kicked off with $44 million. Frozen Empire heated up the charts with $45 million, a bit ahead of my $42.7 million prediction. As mentioned, this is generally where most prognosticators figured this would fall and even at the higher end of that range.

Dune: Part Two was second with $17.6 million, on target with my $17.4 million call. The sci-fi spectacle is up to $233 million after four weeks.

Kung Fu Panda 4 went from 1st to 3rd in its third weekend with $16.5 million, a bit below my $18.2 million call. The animated adventure has amassed $132 million thus far.

Sydney Sweeney’s fright fest Immaculate was fourth with Neon’s highest opening of all time at $5.3 million. I was close at $4.9 million. While this isn’t an overly impressive haul, it does give the studio bragging rights and helps solidify Sweeney’s status as Hollywood’s It Girl of the moment.

Arthur the King rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $3.8 million) for a muted two-week tally of $14 million.

Finally, I didn’t make a projection for the critically acclaimed horror flick Late Night with the Devil. It opened in sixth with $2.8 million on just over 1000 screens and that marks a best ever for IFC Films.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction
Immaculate Box Office Prediction

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…