Universal Pictures hopes to scare up big business in the first full weekend of October with The Exorcist: Believer. It’s the only new release coming out after a handful of pics were out this past frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
David Gordon Green’s direct sequel to the 1973 horror classic (with Ellen Burstyn returning to her Oscar nominated role) looks to be a financial success like the filmmaker’s recent Halloween trilogy. I’m thinking it might accomplish that goal and my forecast is at the higher end of its anticipated range at over $30 million.
All holdovers seem destined to slide a spot. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie had a better than anticipated start (more on that below) and the sophomore dip should be the smallest of last weekend’s newcomers. Falls for Saw X and The Creator should be heftier with The Nun II rounding out the top five in its fifth outing.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $31.9 million
2. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
4. The Creator
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie eclipsed the earnings of its 2021 predecessor (which opened during the COVID challenges) and was easily the top dog of the weekend with $22.7 million. That’s ahead of my $16.3 million call as the animated sequel based on the Nickelodeon series brought in family audiences.
Saw X, which surprisingly received the best reviews of the nearly 20-year-old franchise, was second and slightly beat projections with $18.3 million. I went lower with $15.7 million. That’s an improvement over previous entries Jigsaw (2017) and Spiral (2021) while a far cry from the $30M+ that earlier editions managed.
I was off base in saying sci-fi thriller The Creator from Gareth Edwards would capture the #1 position. With a third place premiere at $14 million, it fell short of my $17.9 million take. Look for it to fade quickly as its overseas grosses were also underwhelming.
The Nun II, after three weeks in 1st, was fourth with $4.7 million. My prediction? $4.7 million! The four-week tally is a sturdy $76 million.
I failed to see that The Blind might be in the top 5. Recounting the early days of Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson, the Fathom Events feature did manage the 5 spot with $4.3 million and $5.1 million since its Thursday bow.
The final wide release was Dumb Money as it expanded nationwide and disappeared in seventh with $3.3 million (I said $5.5 million). The overall three-week gross is a weak $7 million.
And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…
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