The Best International Feature Film derby for 2021’s Academy Awards looks to be a tough competition. There’s a quintet of selections that, at the moment, stand as the probable nominees: Denmark’s Flee (which could also make history by garnering mentions in Animated and Documentary Feature and even Best Picture), The Hand of God out of Italy, Iran’s A Hero (which may be the soft frontrunner), France’s much discussed Titane, and The Worst Person in the World from Norway (which certainly has its ardent admirers).
Yet as we know with Oscar voters, there are often surprises that upset the general consensus. Following its premiere at the Cannes this summer, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three hour Japanese drama Drive My Car was up for the Palme d’Or and took home the festival’s Best Screenplay award. Some critics have pointed out the lengthy runtime, but the reviews still resulted in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Two weeks ago, I had Car parked in the five spot over The Hand of God in my Oscar projections. On Wednesday, I had it just on the outside looking in at the #6 position after putting God back in. If any picture manages to disrupt the favored five, this might be the one to do it. I don’t foresee it having a chance to actually take the trophy. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune hit box office expectations this past weekend and I’m more confident than ever that it makes the Best Picture ten. Belfast still maintains the #1 slot in Picture and I nearly put its maker Kenneth Branagh in the same spot in Director. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is hanging on by a thread as I also believe Villeneuve could be rewarded for his technical bravura behind the camera.
Per usual, I’ve made a change in the #5 rank in Actor – swapping out Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). It was a good week for the upcoming Phoenix comedic drama as it reenters Original Screenplay over Spencer.
You can read all the latest activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mass (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Flee (PR: 14) (+1)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out: Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (E)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Belfast (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 3) (+1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eternals (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Finch
This adds up to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, The French Dispatch, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Humans, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
We actually had two weeks in a row of my Best Actor predictions staying the same after the five spot seemed to be constantly shifting. Not anymore as Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) makes his first appearance in the predicted hopefuls at the expense of Joaquin Phoenix in C’Mon C’Mon. That films also drops out of Original Screenplay in favor of Spencer.
The biggest change is in International Feature Film as France somewhat surprisingly picked Julia Ducournau’s Titane as their selection. That drops Happening from the race and vaults Titane to the five. I’m also putting in Drive My Car over The Hand of God.
A note – the 10 Best Picture nominees has stayed steady as of late. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that a Sundance selection from early this year (Mass, Flee, or CODA) will end up making the cut. I just can’t decide what to take out yet. We will know soon whether Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, or House of Gucci (the unscreened titles) are vulnerable.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-2)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Flee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. CODA (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tender Bar
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Vivo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God(PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 8) (E)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Happening
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Attica (PR: 4) (+1)
4. President (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cruella (PR: 1) (-2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. King Richard (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
West Side Story
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
King Richard
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Eternals (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jungle Cruise
And that equates to the following number of nominations for these films:
9 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, Spencer
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Driver My Car, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, President, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
It is a week of fairly minor movement in the major categories for my Oscar predictions. Even the five spot in Best Actor (which seems to change each week) remained intact.
There is a switch in Actress with Jennifer Hudson (Respect) back in over Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
The biggest happenings occurred in International Feature Film as nations are continuing to announce their submissions or shortlists in that race. We learned that Spain has gone with The Good Boss instead of Parallel Mothers (a surprise) and that France did not shortlist Petite Maman (which I had in the 5 slot). It’s out in favor of Happening.
You can read all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mass (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Flee (PR: 12) (-1)
14. CODA (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thoms Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Luca (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4 (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vivo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Flee (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Happening (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 10) (+2)
9. I’m Your Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Petite Maman
Parallel Mothers
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 6) (E)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Julia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The First Wave (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-2)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Belfast (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Eternals
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following breakdown in terms of nominations for the pictures:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Spencer
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Eternals, Don’t Look Up, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Happening, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My weekly Oscar predictions enters the month of October with no changes in my forecasted Picture and Director nominees. However, we do have movement in the acting derbies:
The five spot in Best Actor seems to change every Sunday. This time I’m swapping out Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) once again.
In Actress, Jennifer Hudson (Respect) falls out in favor of Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter.
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) makes my Supporting Actress five for the first time at the expense of Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans).
My #1’s in the biggest competitions stay put with Belfast (Picture), Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog (Director), Kristen Stewart in Spencer (Actress), Will Smith in King Richard (Actor), Caitriona Balfe for Belfast (Supporting Actress), and Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza (Supporting Actor).
You can peruse all the activity for all the races below as I now have Belfast and Dune tied for garnering the most nods.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Flee (PR: 12) (E)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (E)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
3. Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Charlotte (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Petite Maman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Happening (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Drive My Car (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. 7 Prisoners (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Julia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sparks Brothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 4) (+2)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cruella (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-3)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Luca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-4)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these pictures gathering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Annette, Attica, Belle, Cyrano, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Petite Maman, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My weekly Oscar predictions has at last expanded to all categories covering feature films! That means we have counts on how each picture will fare and I have Dune and Nightmare Alley leading the way to 10 nods apiece.
There are changes to ponder as Don’t Look Up takes the biggest fall. I have been toying with removing the Netflix disaster drama from Best Picture contention for a couple of weeks. A clip from the pic circulated yesterday and drew some criticism, but I wouldn’t judge it from that brief glimpse. This is more of a hunch that Up might not going for a BP vibe. So it’s out with Up and in with Spencer. Additionally, C’Mon C’Mon rises in Original Screenplay over Adam McKay’s latest.
In other developments:
The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at the New York Film Festival Friday and solidified its BP viability. Same goes for Denzel Washington. There’s still a question mark as to whether Frances McDormand will be placed in lead or supporting (sounds like a case could be made for both). For now, I’m putting her back in Best Actress and saying she gets in. Same goes for Jennifer Hudson in Respect. Their inclusion knocks out Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter).
I’m back to projecting Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. His placement in Actor for Nightmare Alley removes Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon).
The Supporting Actress derby seems to be getting a new #1 each week. This time it’s Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
Lots more to peruse in the inaugural expanded listings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Flee (PR: 16) (+4)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Humans (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
The French Dispatch
Tick, Tick… Boom!
A Hero
The Lost Daughter
C’Mon C’Mon
Being the Ricardos
Cyrano
Passing
Parallel Mothers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 12)
10. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emilia Jones, CODA
Halle Berry, Bruised
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11( (+3)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Ben Foster, The Survivor
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 14) (+6)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (E)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – moved to lead
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley
Judi Dench, Belfast
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 14) (+4)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Reed Birney, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mass (PR: 4) (+1))
4. King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Annette
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Tick, Tick… Boom!
The Last Duel
The Green Knight
In the Heights
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee
2. Luca
3. Encanto
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
5. Belle
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo
7. Raya and the Last Dragon
8. Charlotte
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong
10. Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero
2. Flee
3. The Hand of God
4. Petite Maman
5. The Worst Person in the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Drive My Car
8. Compartment No. 6
9. 7 Prisoners
10. I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue
2. Flee
3. Attica
4. President
5. The Lost Leonardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Summer of Soul
7. Julia
8. The Sparks Brothers
9. The First Wave
10. Becoming Cousteau
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story
7. Spencer
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer
2. House of Gucci
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. West Side Story
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Don’t Look Up
8. House of Gucci
9. King Richard
10. Spencer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. Dune
3. Spencer
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. Cruella
7. Cyrano
8. West Side Story
9. Licorice Pizza
10. The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Spencer
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Cyrano
9. Don’t Look Up
10. King Richard
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast
4. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto
5. “Here I Am” from Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano
8. “Believe” from The Rescue
9. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. Spencer
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci
7. Belfast
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. Cyrano
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. The Matrix Resurrections
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast
7. Don’t Look Up
8. No Time to Die
9. A Quiet Place Part II
10. King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Matrix Resurrections
3. Eternals
4. Godzilla vs. Kong
5. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home
7. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
8. The Suicide Squad
9. Free Guy
10. Jungle Cruise
And that gives us the first take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
10 Nominations
Dune, Nightmare Alley
8 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard
3 Nominations
Flee, The Humans, Mass
2 Nominations
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Matrix Resurrections, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Daughter, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Petite Maman, President, The Rescue, The Worst Person in the World
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