Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping horror fans sink their teeth into Nosferatu when it premieres on Christmas. A remake of the 1922 German classic which adapted Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Robert Eggers directs. Bill Skarsgård takes on another classic scary villain after Pennywise in the It chapters. Costars include Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe.

Reviews are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic score. This caps off a year filled with numerous acclaimed fright features. Nosferatu could manage the largest debut among the holiday openings considering its only real competition is A Complete Unknown.

During this season, newcomers often start out lower than they typically would and develop stronger legs into January. With 12/25 falling on a Wednesday, I’ll project Nosferatu manages low teens from Friday to Sunday with close to an equal amount when factoring in Christmas and the day after.

Nosferatu opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday estimate); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

For my Babygirl prediction, click here:

For my The Fire Inside prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Nosferatu

Acclaimed filmmaker Robert Eggers brings his version of Nosferatu to multiplexes on Christmas Day with Bill Skarsgård embodying the iconic vampire. Based on the 1922 classic German film which was spawned from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, this is Eggers’ fourth feature after the critically praised The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe populate his dark vision.

The review embargo lifted over three weeks before the opening and critics are (sorry…) mostly sinking their teeth into this. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, the question isn’t whether Nosferatu gets Oscar nods. It’s how many. That’s because I’m confident tech nods are coming its way. Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Production Design all seem achievable and I had it nabbing those four nods in my predictions from yesterday. Sound and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and Original Score could be on the menu.

As for above the line mentions, that is more questionable. Lily-Rose Depp is drawing raves for her lead work, but Best Actress is probably too crowded and I don’t currently have her in my top 10. Skarsgård, who terrified us as Pennywise in It, is being lauded for his supporting role. Yet we know the Academy doesn’t warm to performances in the horror genre.

I wouldn’t completely discount Picture or Eggers in director. Nosferatu‘s stock could rise exponentially if it grabs AFI or National Board of Review best of slots. For now, I feel more comfortable having the film and its maker on the outside looking in for recognition while below the lines noms should be materializing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Universal hopes that horror fans board The Last Voyage of the Demeter when it opens August 11th. Based on a chapter from Bram Stoker’s signature novel Dracula, André Øvredal (maker of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark) directs Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, David Dastmalchian, Javier Botet, Liam Cunningham, and Woody Norman in the tale of passengers trying to surviving a trip from Transylvania to London.

The Dracula angle could succeed in getting some genre fans out, but this Voyage‘s marketing campaign seems to be lacking. At this point, the studio might settle for a premiere similar to its Idris Elba starrer Beast, which took in nearly $12 million in mid-August last year. It could also debut in range with the vampiric The Invitation, which didn’t reach $7 million a week after Beast opened.

A gross closer to The Invitation as opposed to Beast is where this might land.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million

Renfield Review

When it comes to the quality of humor in Renfield, the ska’s the limit. There are lame jokes about how ska music sucks. The impression I get from this horror comedy is they could’ve let Nicolas Cage vamp as Dracula for an hour and a half and it would’ve been better. It wouldn’t take much as this is a mighty, mighty letdown.

Renfield (Nicholas Hoult) has been the servant to Cage’s Dracula for over 100 years and he’s finally ready to hang it up. The decades old duo now reside in subterranean New Orleans. The famed vampire depends on his employee for victims to gorge on. The more innocent they are (he requests a busload of cheerleaders or group of nuns), the more power he has. Renfield, meanwhile, stays nourished by feasting on bugs. His emotional nourishment comes from a 12-step group focused on co-dependency.

If this concept sounds like a clever angle on this oft told story, it is. Director Chris McKay and screenwriter Ryan Ridley can’t figure out how to make it enjoyable. Much of the runtime takes the light away from Cage, whose performance is easily the strongest. Instead we get a yawn inducing main plot teaming Renfield up with Awkwafina’s determined bayou cop Rebecca. She’s trying to bring down the Lobo crime family led by matriarch Bellafrancesca (Shohreh Aghdashloo) and hotshot son Teddy (Ben Schwartz). That storyline is filled with wretched overacting (not the glorious kind that Cage brings) with the Lobo’s as the worst offenders. There are shades of Eddie Murphy’s middling (but better) Vampire in Brooklyn in the Mob business. Awkwafina, on the other hand, underplays her part. It’s almost as if she’s not there. The script barely attempts romantic sparks between her and Renfield and there’s a family dynamic involving her FBI agent sister that is completely tacked on. I suspect her sibling might have had a larger role in the original draft and was cut. Hoult is a talented performer in need of a sharper role.

The action sequences are sloppily shot and edited though if it’s spurting blood you want, your thirst might be occasionally quenched. Cage is game and provides some laughs, but he’s trapped in the rubbish. Does this come off as a giant missed opportunity? No doubt.

*1/2 (out of four)

The Invitation Box Office Prediction

Sony is hoping that horror fans and perhaps a young female audience RSVP for The Invitation when it arrives in theaters August 26th. Taking influence from Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel, Jessica M. Thompson directs. Nathalie Emmanuel, best known for her appearances in the latest Fast and Furious installments, headlines. Costars include Thomas Doherty, Stephanie Corneliussen, Alana Boden, and Hugh Skinner.

Horror flicks have been a bright spot in the COVID era and that includes 2022 (Scream and The Black Phone for example). This one faces challenges. It’s not based on existing IP other than the loose vampire connection. Most importantly, the late August release date is generally seen as a dumping ground for studios.

The Invitation may be fortunate to reach double digits (though that could be good enough for a #1 opening). I’ll say it falls a bit under that mark.

The Invitation opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my Three Thousand Years of Longing prediction, click here:

Three Thousand Years of Longing Box Office Prediction

Throwback Review: Shadow of the Vampire (2000)

Shadow of the Vampire is high concept cinema in bizarre fashion. It’s not wholly successful in its execution as it struggles to fill the running time of the silent era features it clearly adores. The gimmick is clever on paper and effective occasionally on-screen… what if your lead vampire in your movie was an actual one?

In Steven Katz’s script, the picture happens to be the 1922 German classic Nosferatu. The people portrayed here are real. What happens with them is not. John Malkovich is director F.W. Murnau. He can’t get the rights to Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel so he simply changes the names and keeps the plot (that part is true and resulted in legal proceedings). His casting of Dracu…, or Nosferatu, is said to be unknown theater actor Max Schreck (Willem Dafoe). It’s explained that he’s severely Method in his approach. The cast and crew, which includes Eddie Izzard in the Jonathan Harker part and Catherine McCormack as Mina, just go with it. That is until disappearances and strange illnesses begin to occur. Murnau knows the real secret. Max isn’t acting at all and he’s made a grand and deadly bargain to nab his lead. In lots of movies about making movies, the studio brass or producers are the bloodsuckers. Not here.

The project is centered on just how far a filmmaker will go to make a masterpiece. And Murnau’s heart of darkness takes him down some pitch black roads (in real life he was said to be a swell guy). Portraying pomposity and madness is right up Malkovich’s sleeve and he did it far more memorably in Being John Malkovich.

Vampire belongs to Dafoe, unrecognizable except for those bulging eyes. Under his makeup, the actor is a joy to watch and is basically the reason this is worthwhile. E. Elias Merhige serves behind the camera here. He does excel at capturing the look of the pre talkies. Yet I never escaped a feeling that the idea behind all this seemed smarter in conception than realization.