As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Jeremy Strong:
As Donald Trump’s attorney and fixer Roy Cohn, Strong flexed his acting muscle and it resulted in nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.
The Cast Against Jeremy Strong:
He missed the cut at Critics Choice. Most importantly, Strong’s Succession costar Kieran Culkin has swept the season with his performance in A Real Pain.
The Verdict:
There will be almost certainly be a Succession actor winning Supporting Actor on Sunday night. It almost certainly will not be Strong.
My Case Of posts will conclude with the final hopeful in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Sebastian Stan:
As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.
The Case Against Sebastian Stan:
Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.
The Verdict:
Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:
Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.
However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).
Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).
There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).
That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.
Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.
Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.
Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.
For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!
Darrell Hammond might be the best all-around impressionist in the history of SNL and that’s why he kicks off the top 15 of my personal favorite cast members. When he left in 2009, he did so as the longest tenured performer ever at 14 seasons. The record has since been surpassed by Kenan Thompson though Hammond continues to serve as the show’s announcer. Fun fact: he filled in for long-time announcer Don Pardo when that legend fell ill. No one knew the difference.
It’s worth noting that Phil Hartman has yet to appear on this list so you can safely assume that’s still coming. Yet I would argue that Hammond’s Bill Clinton and Phil Donahue managed to edge Hartman’s. Both were brilliant takes on the POTUS and daytime talk show host. It certainly didn’t stop there with Hammond embodying Al Gore (in legendary cold opens opposite Will Ferrell’s George W. Bush), John McCain, Dick Cheney, Donald Trump, Regis Philbin, Ted Koppel, and Chris Matthews to name a few.
And then, of course, there’s his filthy Sean Connery tormenting Ferrell’s Alex Trebek on “Celebrity Jeopardy”. When it comes to impersonations, Hammond is untouchable. #14 will be up soon!
Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.
Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.
Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. We Live in Time
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (October 11-13)
Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.
The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.
Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.
A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.
Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.
Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.
Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.
Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.
Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.
A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:
This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.
If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.
Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.
I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.
Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:
1. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
3. Joker: Folie à Deux
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Saturday Night
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
7. Piece by Piece
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
8. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
9. The Apprentice
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (October 4-6)
Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.
The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.
Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.
Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.
Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!
Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.
After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.
The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.
With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.
The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
Awards prospects for Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice might have less to do with today’s Cannes premiere or whatever date the eventual distributor places it for domestic release. November 5th might be the biggest factor in whether it gets various nominations. That’s the date of the Presidential election and Oscar voters could react based on the results of whether the 45th POTUS becomes the 47th POTUS.
Set in the 1970s and 80s, this is essentially a Donald Trump origin story about ruthless attorney Roy Cohn’s influence on his life. Sebastian Stan is Trump with Jeremy Strong as Cohn. Costars include Maria Bakalova as Ivana and Martin Donovan as family patriarch Fred.
Reviews trickling in from France are somewhat all over the map. Yet compliments for the men playing Trump and Cohn is mostly universal. Mr. Stan’s biggest competition for a final five slot in Actor could be himself as he’s also being lauded for A Different Man. It rolled out at Sundance and is slated for a September domestic bow. Strong, an Emmy winner for Succession, could book his first Academy recognition in Supporting Actor. In fact, he might be in competition with his costar/onscreen sibling from that acclaimed HBO show in Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). As for Bakalova, a previous nominee for the Borat sequel in 2020, her role is probably too small to contend.
If Stan and Strong are up for their roles, it greatly increases the chances of BP inclusion despite the varying reactions. I am skeptical that Abbasi (maker of international critical darlings Border and Holy Spider) or the screenplay are up (the latter would be more feasible). Yet it might be the general election ballot that ultimately chooses the viability of The Apprentice. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Taylor Swift will not be performing an Oscar nominated track at this April’s ceremony. Sonic the Hedgehog will not be the Oscar nominated Sonic the Hedgehog. Sacha Baron Cohen’s makeup team from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm who transformed him into former President Donald Trump will not see their work recognized.
These are some of the headlines from today’s unveiling of shortlists in six categories covering feature films from the Academy. On the positive side for its respective studios, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could contend in at least three races. A documentary about refugees from Chechnya is a Visual Effects hopeful. And Borat is still on the board for his song “Wuhan Flu”. There were mixed results from the announcements for features such as Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Let’s break this all down and what it means for my weekly predictions, shall we?
Best Documentary Feature
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
76 Days
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Dick Johnson Is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Notturno
The Painter and the Thief
Time
The Truffle Hunters
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
There are two docs I had in my top ten that missed the cut: The Dissident, which I had ranked all the way up in second and Totally Under Control, which I had sixth. This is a pretty open race in 2020 and I had Time in first position two days ago. All In and Dick Johnson are sturdy contenders as well.
Best International Feature Film
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
Another Round
Better Days
Charlatan
Collective
Dear Comrades!
Hope
I’m No Longer Here
La Llorona
The Man Who Sold His Skin
The Mole Agent
Night of the Kings
Quo Vadis, Aida?
A Sun
Sun Children
Two of Us
Analysis:
My only top ten hopeful falling out was my #10 Notturno (which made the Documentary list). No real surprises with Another Round as a soft frontrunner to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Emma
The Glorias
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Little Things
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
One Night in Miami
Pinocchio
Analysis:
Two of my predicted nominees from my last round had their possibilities cease today: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The United States vs. Billie Holiday (ranked fourth and fifth respectively). Also dropped: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#7), News of the World (#8), and Mulan (#9). Ma Rainey will probably remain in my #1 spot with Hillbilly and Mank following.
Best Original Score
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
Ammonite
Blizzard of Souls
Da 5 Bloods
The Invisible Man
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Life Ahead
The Little Things
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Mulan
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
My #6 entry Hillbilly Elegy was a rather notable miss here while my other nine entries are still in the mix. This race could come down to Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor competing against themselves with Soul and Mank.
Best Original Song
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
“Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Rain Song” from Minari
“Show Me Your Soul” from Mr. Soul!
“Loyal Brave True” from Mulan
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Green” from Sound of Metal
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
As mentioned, no Taylor Swift for her track “Only the Young” from Miss Americana. Yet a larger omission was “Over the Moon” from the animated Rocket to the Moon, which I had ranked at #4. Another to miss the cut: “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, which achieved a Golden Globes nod. “Speak Now” might have an edge, but I wouldn’t count out “Seen”.
Best Visual Effects
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Bloodshot
Love and Monsters
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
Some genuine shockers in VE with my #3 The Invisible Man and #4 Greyhound out of contention. Also missing: Wonder Woman 1984 (#7), Sonic the Hedgehog (#8), and The Call of the Wild (#10). In their places are pics I didn’t have on my radar like Bloodshot and Love and Monsters (the Chechnya nod was at least spoken of in recent days). Soul getting in certainly gives it a solid shot at inclusion, but Tenet and The Midnight Sky still appear to be the heavyweights.
Today’s news will certainly alter what you see when I update my estimates this weekend! Stay tuned…
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