Oscar Predictions: Elio

Elio attempts to become the 20th Pixar offering to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Academy Awards. Out this Friday, the sci-fi adventure is co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina. The voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.

Reviews are generally of the thumbs up variety, but not as laudatory as some other titles from Disney’s subsidiary. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82% with Metacritic at 62. For comparisons sake, Pixar’s Elemental from two years ago was in that range with a 58 on Meta and 73% RT.

That was enough for Elemental to get one of the five Animated Feature slots. It should also be enough for Elio. However, I’m far less confident it will be the 11th winner of the prize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Elio Box Office Prediction

Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.

Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.

My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.

Elio opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million

For my 28 Years Later prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Turning Red

Turning Red is the latest Pixar title and it is out Friday on Disney Plus. The coming-of-age tale comes from director Domee She, who won an Oscar in 2018 for her short film Bao (also from Disney/Pixar).

The review embargo is up today and the result so far is 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Red was originally slated for a theatrical release but the pandemic altered that plan. It will follow in the footsteps of Soul, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Luca. What do they all have in common besides their studio? All were nominated or won (in Soul‘s case) for the Animated Feature Oscar.

With bicoastal limited theatrical showings, Red will qualify for next year’s Academy consideration. For 2021, 60% of the animated movies (Raya, Luca, Encanto) are Mouse Factory products.

While it’s certainly early, critical reaction here indicates this could easily make the cut. It’s also worth noting that Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell penned some original tunes that could be Original Song hopefuls. If that pans out, Eilish could be gunning for her second nod in a row as she’s currently up for “No Time to Die”. There’s also Ludwig Goransson who scored Red and he’s a previous Oscar winner for Black Panther. 

The other Pixar product comes this summer with Lightyear. I wouldn’t write Red‘s inclusion in blue ink yet, but don’t be surprised if it’s listed a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…