Tag: Documentaries

Oscar Predictions: American Symphony

On November 29th, Matthew Heineman’s documentary American Symphony plays on Netflix after being on the festival circuit beginning at Telluride. It recounts a year in the life of Grammy winning musician Jon Batiste and family.

Heineman is no stranger to awards hopefuls in the genre. 2015’s Cartel Land made the quintet of nominees. 2021’s The First Wave and last year’s Retrograde were discussed for attention and was up in other precursors though each failed to make the Academy cut.

Symphony is at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and scored six Critics Choice nods at their ceremony over the weekend honoring true life works. It won two with Best Music Documentary and Score (losing the main prize to Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie).

Drawing a correlation between Critics Choice and the Academy is risky. As I’ve discussed numerous times, the doc branch of voters at the big ceremony are unpredictable. Symphony stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet, but it’s gotta make the shortlist first and surprises seem to occur there every year when revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Anselm

Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.

The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.

However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Orlando, My Political Biography

Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.

With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Mission

Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss’s documentary The Mission is out in limited release after playing the festival circuit including Telluride and London. It examines the killing of American missionary John Allen Chau in 2018. The documentary arm of National Geographic produces.

The team behind The Mission have made acclaimed docs such as 2014’s The Overnighters and 2020’s Boys State. They have not managed to generate attention from the Academy. With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, reviews are fine. However, I’m not confident The Mission will represent their first shot at the big dance. This has not made my top 10 possibilities in previous write-ups. Yet the prospects shot up when the Critics Choice Association named it among their 10 best for 2023 alongside surefire contenders like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.

Whether The Mission is mentioned in my next update remains to be seen, but it’s certainly on my radar now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Pigeon Tunnel

Errol Morris is one of the best known documentarians in the medium whose The Thin Blue Line (1988) is a genre classic. Two decades back, The Fog of War was crowned best doc at the Academy Awards. His latest is The Pigeon Tunnel and it’s out on Apple TV this weekend after playing the festival circuit in Telluride and Toronto.

It chronicles the life of legendary spy and spy novelist John le Carré. His works such as The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, The Constant Gardner, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy were all made into acclaimed pictures.

Reviews are appreciative with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, at this week’s announcement for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, it managed only a Best Score nod. If Pigeon can manage to make the shortlist when they’re revealed in December, it obviously has a shot. With a strong slate of docs in contention, that might not happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Silver Dollar Road

2016’s Raoul Peck documentary I Am Not Your Negro earned acclaim and an Oscar nomination in Best Documentary Feature. After its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, Peck’s Silver Dollar Road hits theaters in limited fashion on October 13th. An Amazon Prime streaming bow follows a week later.

An exploration of African-American land ownership, Road hasn’t quite landed the raves that Peck’s Academy contender from seven years ago did. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 76%. That may not be enough to drive it to awards attention, but the filmmaker behind it could help with exposure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: 20 Days in Mariupol

20 Days in Mariupol is a potential double threat at the 96th Academy Awards in the International Feature Film and Documentary Feature derbies. Ukrainian war correspondent Mstyslav Chernov details the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion. It premiered at Sundance and won the Audience prize for World Cinema Documentary Competition.

Reviews were uniformly strong with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Ukraine submitted Mariupol as their pick for International Feature Film. I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that it gets in. I suspect it has a better shot in Documentary Feature where I had it ranked behind only Beyond Utopia in my update from a week ago. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Beyond Utopia

After winning the audience award for documentaries at Sundance earlier this year, Madeleine Gavin’s Beyond Utopia will receive further exposure this weekend at Telluride. The acclaimed feature focuses on North Korean defectors and it just scored an October distribution deal via Fathom Events and Roadside Attractions.

With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, look for its buyers to mount a serious Oscar campaign in Documentary Feature. When it comes to that competition, there’s always the caveat that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions.

That said, Utopia is a threat for both a nomination and the win. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Black Ice

An exploration of African-American hockey players in our neighbor to the north and the historical racism involved, the documentary Black Ice premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ten months ago. From filmmaker Hubert Davis, it is out in limited theatrical release this weekend.

Boasting executive producers including Drake and Lebron James, Ice was a critical favorite at its fest debut. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%. Lionsgate will need to employ a robust campaign for the Academy to consider it for one of the five spots in Documentary Feature. The review are solid enough that it’s a possibility, but other high profile docs should emerge during the imminent fall fest season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Kokomo City

D. Smith’s provocative and acclaimed doc Kokomo City was first unveiled at Sundance in January. Following four transgender sex workers in Georgia and New York, it won an audience prize when it screened at the Berlin Film Festival. Magnolia picked up the distribution rights and it is slated for domestic release on July 28th.

With a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, City‘s reviews are strong enough for potential awards consideration. If it manages to get buzz when it releases later next month (and it certainly could), this could be a contender for Documentary Feature that the Academy embraces. On the other hand, it might be too hot button for the unpredictable branch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…