Tag: Documentaries

Oscar Predictions: The Mission

Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss’s documentary The Mission is out in limited release after playing the festival circuit including Telluride and London. It examines the killing of American missionary John Allen Chau in 2018. The documentary arm of National Geographic produces.

The team behind The Mission have made acclaimed docs such as 2014’s The Overnighters and 2020’s Boys State. They have not managed to generate attention from the Academy. With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, reviews are fine. However, I’m not confident The Mission will represent their first shot at the big dance. This has not made my top 10 possibilities in previous write-ups. Yet the prospects shot up when the Critics Choice Association named it among their 10 best for 2023 alongside surefire contenders like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.

Whether The Mission is mentioned in my next update remains to be seen, but it’s certainly on my radar now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Pigeon Tunnel

Errol Morris is one of the best known documentarians in the medium whose The Thin Blue Line (1988) is a genre classic. Two decades back, The Fog of War was crowned best doc at the Academy Awards. His latest is The Pigeon Tunnel and it’s out on Apple TV this weekend after playing the festival circuit in Telluride and Toronto.

It chronicles the life of legendary spy and spy novelist John le Carré. His works such as The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, The Constant Gardner, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy were all made into acclaimed pictures.

Reviews are appreciative with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, at this week’s announcement for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, it managed only a Best Score nod. If Pigeon can manage to make the shortlist when they’re revealed in December, it obviously has a shot. With a strong slate of docs in contention, that might not happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Silver Dollar Road

2016’s Raoul Peck documentary I Am Not Your Negro earned acclaim and an Oscar nomination in Best Documentary Feature. After its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, Peck’s Silver Dollar Road hits theaters in limited fashion on October 13th. An Amazon Prime streaming bow follows a week later.

An exploration of African-American land ownership, Road hasn’t quite landed the raves that Peck’s Academy contender from seven years ago did. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 76%. That may not be enough to drive it to awards attention, but the filmmaker behind it could help with exposure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: 20 Days in Mariupol

20 Days in Mariupol is a potential double threat at the 96th Academy Awards in the International Feature Film and Documentary Feature derbies. Ukrainian war correspondent Mstyslav Chernov details the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion. It premiered at Sundance and won the Audience prize for World Cinema Documentary Competition.

Reviews were uniformly strong with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Ukraine submitted Mariupol as their pick for International Feature Film. I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that it gets in. I suspect it has a better shot in Documentary Feature where I had it ranked behind only Beyond Utopia in my update from a week ago. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Beyond Utopia

After winning the audience award for documentaries at Sundance earlier this year, Madeleine Gavin’s Beyond Utopia will receive further exposure this weekend at Telluride. The acclaimed feature focuses on North Korean defectors and it just scored an October distribution deal via Fathom Events and Roadside Attractions.

With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, look for its buyers to mount a serious Oscar campaign in Documentary Feature. When it comes to that competition, there’s always the caveat that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions.

That said, Utopia is a threat for both a nomination and the win. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Black Ice

An exploration of African-American hockey players in our neighbor to the north and the historical racism involved, the documentary Black Ice premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ten months ago. From filmmaker Hubert Davis, it is out in limited theatrical release this weekend.

Boasting executive producers including Drake and Lebron James, Ice was a critical favorite at its fest debut. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%. Lionsgate will need to employ a robust campaign for the Academy to consider it for one of the five spots in Documentary Feature. The review are solid enough that it’s a possibility, but other high profile docs should emerge during the imminent fall fest season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Kokomo City

D. Smith’s provocative and acclaimed doc Kokomo City was first unveiled at Sundance in January. Following four transgender sex workers in Georgia and New York, it won an audience prize when it screened at the Berlin Film Festival. Magnolia picked up the distribution rights and it is slated for domestic release on July 28th.

With a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, City‘s reviews are strong enough for potential awards consideration. If it manages to get buzz when it releases later next month (and it certainly could), this could be a contender for Documentary Feature that the Academy embraces. On the other hand, it might be too hot button for the unpredictable branch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Four Daughters

Filmmaker Kaouther Ben Hania is no stranger to awards attention. In 2020, her Tunisian feature The Man Who Sold His Skin was a surprise nominee for International Feature Film (ultimately losing to Another Round).

Her next round for Oscar chatter lies with Four Daughters. The Arabic-language documentary (known as Les Filles d’Olfa at its French debut) premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. It centers on a Tunisian mother and the disappearance of her two eldest daughters. In this mix of real life and fiction, the director hires professional actresses to portray the missing women.

Early reviews are predominantly fresh with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the write-ups, however, indicate it doesn’t fully deliver on the unique premise. Ben Hania scored a surprise nod three years back and perhaps this could accomplish the same in Documentary Feature. It remains somewhat of a long shot currently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Occupied City

Steve McQueen’s Occupied City, based on buzz out of Cannes, may not be the best documentary we’ll see in 2023. It certainly sounds like it’s the most documentary. Clocking in at about four and a half hours, it tells dual stories of Amsterdam from its Nazi occupation in WWII and its last few years during the pandemic.

A decade ago, the filmmaker’s 12 Years a Slave was crowned Best Picture (while McQueen himself lost the directorial race to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity). His lone theatrical follow-up is 2018’s Widows. McQueen’s anthology series Small Axe from 2020 was critically heralded on the small screen and the historical drama Blitz with Saorise Ronan is on the way.

The plaudits for his body of work hasn’t fully extended to City. The Rotten Tomatoes meter early on is 67%. A common complaint is its length and stodginess. I don’t see this occupying one of the five spots in Documentary Feature a few months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Eternal Memory

Two years ago, documentarian Maite Alberdi saw her nursing home expose The Mole Agent nominated for Documentary Feature at the Oscars. Agent was originally unveiled at Sundance and her latest project The Eternal Memory has followed suit. It too deals with aging issues as it’s centered on a Chilean couple and a husband diagnosed with Alzheimer’s.

MTV’s documentary film branch quickly snatched up the distribution rights. Based on early reviews, it stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics are hailing it as a powerful experience. At the last Academy Awards, MTV received their first nod in the competition with Ascension. With a boisterous campaign (which is to be expected), Memory could be a player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…