Tag: Documentaries

Oscar Predictions: Porcelain War

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev’s documentary Porcelain War focuses on three artists turned Ukrainian soldiers following the Russian invasion. After its debut at Sundance, it proceeded to win the Grand Jury prize for its genre at the Utah festival.

War looks to follow 20 Days in Mariupol (also covering the war) in generating awards attention. With an 89% RT rating, it might need a shrewd distributor to mount an effective campaign. Considering the subject matter, it stands a solid shot at breaking through with voters a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Gaucho Gaucho

Gaucho is the seventh studio offering by the great Steely Dan (it’s got “Hey Nineteen” on it)! Gaucho Gaucho, on the other hand, is Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2021 documentary The Truffle Hunters. Focused on the title character community of Argentine cowboys, it has been unveiled at Sundance.

With an 86% RT score, the lions share of the praise is going to the B & W cinematography. Truffle, which received stronger reviews, didn’t make the Academy’s cut in Doc Feature. I’m skeptical this will be able to rustle up a nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

In 2018, Ian Bonhôte and Peter Ettedgui’s documentary McQueen focused on British fashion director Alexander McQueen. It earned strong reviews, but wasn’t much of an awards player. The filmmakers are back with a higher profile doc six years later in Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It recounts the performer’s career and life following his paralysis resulting from a horse riding accident.

Early reaction from its Sundance screening is that it’s an emotionally stirring watch. The RT score is 100%. Like Will & Harper (my previous Oscar Predictions write-up), Super/Man should be subject to a bidding war by studios and streamers. This appears destined to be one of the most watched docs of 2024.

That doesn’t always translate to the Academy taking notice. In the just announced Oscar noms, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (also acclaimed and with similar themes) made the Documentary Feature shortlist. It did not make the final five. This story should have at least an equal shot at the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Will & Harper

Will & Harper seems to be quite a crowd favorite at Sundance. The documentary follows Will Ferrell and best friend Harper Steele on a road trip following Harper’s recent gender transition. Josh Greenbaum, who made Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar and Strays, chronicles the journey.

Not all the reviews are raves, but it does have a 100% RT score. Obviously Ferrell’s star power and the subject matter could result in lots of eyeballs on this doc. It should be scooped by a streamer or studio in short order and there’s already rumors it might land the largest doc deal in Sundance history.

Just because this appears bound to be one of the highest profile pics in its genre doesn’t mean it’ll generate awards attention. Yet if viewers respond the way the Park City group is (multiple standing O’s), it could be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Power

In 2017, Yance Ford’s true crime doc Strong Island (centered on the murder of the filmmaker’s brother) contended for Documentary Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Icarus. Island first screened at Sundance seven years ago. His follow-up is Power and it has also been unveiled at the Utah fest.

Focusing on American policing tactics, the handful of reviews out are a bit mixed. The RT score is 83% (Island had a clean 100%). Power might have a tougher road to make the Academy’s ultimate quintet, but I wouldn’t discount it if it manages to make the shortlisted 15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Frida

Salma Hayek received her sole Oscar nomination in Actress for the title role of 2002’s Frida. Over two decades later, Mexican painter Frida Kahlo is the subject of Carla Gutierrez’s documentary. Premiering at Sundance, it is slated for Amazon streaming in March. The filmmaker makes her directorial debut though she’s served as editor on high profile docs like RBG and Julia.

Reviews out of Utah thus far are a bit on the mixed side. In recent years, we’ve seen a slew of movies in this genre focused on artists of the painting and musical variety. They rarely run through the gauntlet and make it to the Academy’s final five in Documentary Feature. I question Frida‘s chances as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Greatest Night in Pop

Before its January 29th bow on Netflix, Bao Nyugen’s The Greatest Night in Pop got its screening night at Sundance. Nguyen, who helmed the Bruce Lee centered Be Water, chronicles the historic recording of 1985’s famine relief track “We Are the World”. The doc features interviews with some of the participants including cowriter Lionel Richie, Bruce Springsteen, Cyndi Lauper, and preeminent 80s soundtrack (Caddyshack, Footloose, Over the Top, Top Gun) crooner Kenny Loggins.

Early word-of-mouth from Utah (not enough yet for an RT score) indicates this is an appealing enough watch. The buzz doesn’t seem strong enough to turn this into an awards contender though I’m sure nostalgia buffs will happily stream it at the end of the month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Girls State

In 2020, Jesse Moss and Amanda McBaine made the youth in government documentary Boys State, receiving acclaim when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival. Four years later, the filmmakers are back in Park City with the companion Girls State.

Playing the circuit before its April 5th Apple TV streaming premiere on April 5th, critics are being kind with a 100% RT score. Boys generated some awards recognition via Critics Choice and the National Board of Review. It also won the Jury Prize for docs at Sundance. However, the Academy didn’t take notice. If the predecessor couldn’t make waves with the Oscar branch, I question whether this follow-up would. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: In the Rearview

Maciek Hamela’s documentary In the Rearview follows the harrowing journey of Ukrainian refugees to Poland after the Russian invasion. It premiered at the Cannes Film Festival last summer and is now one of 15 shortlisted features in contention for Documentary Feature at the Oscars.

Having played the festival circuit over the past several months, Rearview sports a 100% RT score. It has not been much of a player with major precursors. 20 Days in Mariupol is higher profile and covers similar subject matter. It seen as a potential threat to win the Academy Award.

I have not had this in my top 10 of possibilities since the shortlist was unveiled. Don’t expect it to vault upwards before my final forecast later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Still Small Voice

Chronicling a chaplain and his residency at Mount Sinai Hospital in NYC, Luke Lorentzen’s A Still Small Voice was first seen at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival. A year later, it’s one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries contending at the Academy Awards.

With a 96% RT score, Voice has made a little noise on the circuit. At Sundance, Lorentzen won the directing competition for docs. The National Board of Review named it one of their top five docs of ’23.

I haven’t put this in my projected quintet for Documentary Feature and I have it 8th currently. That means it’s at least a threat to make the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…