Oscar Predictions – My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow has a runtime to match the length of its title and it might have a shot at a Best Documentary Feature nom at the Oscars. Russian born filmmaker Julia Loktev helms the exploration of mostly female journalists in her native country. Clocking in at 324 minutes, Moscow was first screened at the New York Film Festival in 2024 before playing other fests this year.

As precursors have begun to name their best of’s, visibility has risen for the five-hour (so far) project. It won best doc at the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Circle this week. Recently the Critics’ Choice Documentary voters nominated it for their Best Political Documentary though it lost to The Alabama Solution. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with Metacritic at 94.

The documentary branch at the Academy can be tough to predict. I haven’t had Moscow in my top 10 possibilities for the race, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update this weekend. With precursors and those reviews, discounting it might be a mistake. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nuestra Tierra (Landmarks)

Nuestra Tierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.

First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.

While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Cutting Through Rocks

Like many eventual award contending documentaries, Cutting Through Rocks premiered at Sundance back in January. Focused on the first Iranian female elected as a councilperson, it marks the debut project from Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki. Rocks is slated for a December 5th limited domestic bow.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 80 Metacritic score, I’ve had this in and out of my top 10 contenders in Best Documentary Feature. Rocks is one of numerous politically charged genre pics trying to make the final cut. I’ve been keeping it out of the projected quintet though it’s certainly viable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Tale of Silyan

Six years after her feature Honeyland was nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature, Tamara Kotevska will try to achieve the same with follow-up The Tale of Silyan. The Macedonian production marks the filmmaker’s first solo effort as Ljubomir Stefanov was her partner on previous works.

Centered on a farmer nursing an injured stork back to life, Silyan played the Venice Film Festival and was picked up by National Geographic domestically. Reviews are impressive with 100% on RT and an 84 Metacritic. A limited (and Oscar qualifying) run arrives November 28th followed by a Disney+ release. Macedonia has already announced it as their selection for the international competition.

The combo of Nat Geo and the Mouse House campaigning could bode well for its prospects. I’ve yet to list this in either IFF or Doc Feature as a possibility, but that might change with my next update. I do feel it has a stronger shot in the latter as IFF is plenty crowded already. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Already out in France after its debut at Cannes in May, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk is a feature that could capture the attention of Academy voters. Filmmaker Sepideh Farsi chronicles her correspondence with Palestinian photojournalist Fatima Hassouna before she was killed in an airstrike earlier this year.

The timely documentary received an emotional reception at Cannes and early reviews have resulted in a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. There will be plenty of politically charged efforts for the doc branch to choose from in 2025, but Walk may be tough to ignore. I have it currently ranked fifth on my board of possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5

Raoul Peck, whose acclaimed 2016 feature I Am Not Your Negro was nominated for Best Documentary Feature, could find himself in contention nine years later with Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5. Focused on the life of George Orwell while paralleling current events, Damian Lewis narrates as the 1984 writer.

The Neon distributed effort is out today with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 74 Metacritic. The reaction is not as rapturous as Peck’s predecessor. However, with the right push (something Neon is capable of), don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist of docs later this year. It it does, it has a shot to make the quintet though winning is highly improbable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – John Candy: I Like Me

The 2025 Toronto Film Festival is officially underway and it opened with a documentary about Canadian comedic royalty. John Candy: I Like Me (borrowing a great line from his arguable career highlight Planes, Trains and Automobiles) recounts the actor’s personal and professional life life prior to his death at age 43 in 1994. Colin Hanks directs with Ryan Reynolds serving as a producer. It is slated for an Amazon Prime streaming debut on October 10th.

Early word-of-mouth from up north indicates this an affectionate and worthwhile (if conventional) experience that will satisfy fans of the legendary SCTV and silver screen performer. Nevertheless I’ve written scores of prediction posts on celebrity centered docs and it is rare for any of them to contend in Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards. Don’t look for this to buck the trend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Cover-Up

Cover-Up explores the work of journalist and Pulitzer Prize recipient Seymour Hersh and it’s playing a foursome of festivals that began with Venice and continues with Telluride, Toronto, and New York. Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus direct with stateside distribution pending.

Poitras is no stranger to the awards mix for her documentaries. Citizenfour, focused on Edward Snowden, was the 2015 Oscar winner in Doc Feature. 2022’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed took top prize at Venice (the Golden Lion) but was snubbed by the Academy.

Rotten Tomatoes for Cover-Up is at 100% and certainly reaction is laudatory enough for this to contend at the 98th Academy Awards. Whether the unpredictable branch for the genre put it on their shortlist remains to be seen, but this is one to keep in mind for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Come See Me in the Good Light

Come See Me in the Good Light premiered at Sundance back in January with Apple TV picking up distribution rights in the spring (a release date is yet TBD). Directed by Ryan White (best known for Good Night Oppy), Light focuses on the relationship between poets Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley after the former’s terminal cancer diagnosis. Gibson was in Park City for the unveiling of the documentary, but passed away two weeks ago.

Critical reaction has yielded 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sara Beirelles is an executive producer and she sings the track “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”. It is cowritten by Brandi Carlile (another exec producer). Tig Notaro is another well-known artist on the production team. I would anticipate Apple and the well-known contributors to mount campaigns in Documentary Feature and Original Song. The amount of exposure this receives should determine its success in both categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

David Borenstein’s Mr. Nobody Against Putin chronicles a Russian school videographer (Pavel Talankin) and his documentation of the propaganda handed down to students following its invasion of Ukraine. It won a World Cinema Documentary Special Jury Award from Sundance after its premiere there back in January.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic, Nobody awaits stateside distribution. If it makes the 2025 release calendar, it could certainly contend for Doc Feature. I do wonder if 2000 Meters to Andriivka, also covering the Russia-Ukraine war on the battlefield and not the classroom, will fill that so-called slot among the five nominees. There could be room for two, but I’d give Andriivka the edge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…