Tag: Disney

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 23rd Edition

It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.

Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?

I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).

As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?

Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two over McQueen.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)

17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)

18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)

21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)

24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bird

Kinds of Kindness

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Maria

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George MacKay, The End

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)

11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. The End (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Dídi (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Maria (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Queer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Fire Inside (PR: 10 (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Here (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Actor (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Small Things like These

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Inside Out 2

Of the 23 Best Animated Feature Oscar winners (the category didn’t start until 2001), Disney/Pixar has taken 11 of them. The Mouse Factory itself has picked up an additional four through their traditionally animated tales. One of the Pixar winners is 2015’s Inside Out and the sequel is out this weekend. Kelsey Mann makes his directorial debut with a voice cast including Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Tony Hale, Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, Kensington Tallman, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan.

Due to Disney and Pixar’s aforementioned track record, it’s no surprise that Inside Out 2 was the frontrunner for gold sight unseen. With the review embargo lifted, is that still true? Probably, but it’s not a slam dunk.

Reviews are unsurprisingly positive with a 91% RT score. Some of the reaction has critics in their feels as they say it’s on par with the original that managed a 98% Fresh rating. Other write-ups, while mainly of the thumbs up variety, say it doesn’t match its predecessor.

Disney has lost the Academy’s animated prize for two years running. In 2022, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio defeated Turning Red. Last year, The Boy and the Heron flew by Elemental. If the Oscars were held today, Inside Out 2 would likely emerge victorious. However, the year is only half over and other contenders are hoping to challenge it in the months to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.

Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.

Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. That could mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $92.4 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (June 7-9)

Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.

The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.

IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.

The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.

Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.

Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.

As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.

This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.

I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.

Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.

The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.

This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.

For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.

The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Sight Box Office Prediction

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction
Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.

As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).

There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.

Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

2. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Not Another Church Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (May 3-5)

Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.

The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.

Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.

Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.

Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.

This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).

Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).

I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.

The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million

For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Tarot prediction, click here:

Tarot Box Office Prediction

February 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Lisa Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.

Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).

That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Lisa Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

2. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.

The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.

Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.

Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.

Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.

Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).

After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.

In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.

Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.

The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.

Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.

Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.

John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.

Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…