On this day in Movie History, otherwise known as Christmas Eve – Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman tied the knot 23 years ago in 1990. Their union resulted in three motion pictures where the couple worked with the late Tony Scott (Days of Thunder), Ron Howard (Far and Away), and, of course, Stanley Kubrick (Eyes Wide Shut). The marriage would last until 2001. Cruise would go onto other high-profile relationships and Kidman would marry Keith Urban and win an Oscar for 2002’s The Hours (something her ex-husband has yet to do).
43 years ago today marked the debut of Disney’s animated The Aristocats, which is notable for being the last studio pic that Mr. Disney approved himself, prior to his 1966 death.
As for celebrity birthdays, we have Stephanie Meyer, author of the “Twilight” series that turned into a highly successful film franchise that ended just last year. We also have director Lee Daniels, who broke out of the gate with 2009’s Oscar nominated Precious and had a hit this year with Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
As for the daily Six Degrees of Separation between birthday folks –
Stephanie Meyer wrote the Twilight series starring Kristen Stewart
Kristen Stewart was with Forest Whitaker in Panic Room
Forest Whitaker was the star of Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And there you have it – Christmas Eve in Movie History!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:
By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.
Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.
One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)
4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)
5. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Grudge Match
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)
7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)
8. 47 Ronin
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)
9. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)
10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.
And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!
In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.
This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.
There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.
Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.
Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.
Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!
The landscape of film changed forever on This Day in Movie History 76 years ago when Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs had its world premiere at the Carthay Circle Theatre in Hollywood. The brainchild of Walt Disney, Snow White was the first full-length animated feature from the studio and the rest, as they say, was history. The picture was awarded an honorary Oscar and adjusted for inflation, Snow White is one of the top ten grossing films of all time.
On the other hand, 19 years ago today, Macaulay Culkin would begin to see his box office fortunes take a turn for the worse in Richie Rich. After the huge success of the Home Alone pics in 1990 and 1992, Rich fell short money wise grossing $38 million against a $40 million budget. This really marked the beginning of the end of Macaulay’s success as a draw for moviegoers.
Twelve years today marked the opening of Ron Howard’s A Beautiful Mind with Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly (in an Oscar winning performance). The true story of John Nash went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, though Crowe would lose out Best Actor to Denzel Washington in Training Day (Crowe had won the year prior for Gladiator).
As for celebrity birthdays, double Oscar winner and activist Jane Fonda is 76 today while the man who has the most DVD’s/Blu Rays in my collection, Samuel L. Jackson, is 65.
Keeping with my theme of doing Six Degrees of Separation for the birthday actors:
Jane Fonda was in Lee Daniels’ The Butler with John Cusack
For 18 years now, Pixar has been the leader when it comes to animated features and there seems to be no sign of them slowing down. So far, there have been 14 Pixar titles and this begs the question: what’s your favorite?
As the Christmas season approaches, four high profile pictures enter the marketplace with another five scheduled on Christmas Day. This weekend it’s Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks, and Walking with Dinosaurs.
You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
If Anchorman 2 were to come in quite a bit below my projection, it could potentially face a battle with this weekend’s champ The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug for the #1 spot. However, I do believe Ron Burgundy and company will prevail. Last year in this same weekend, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell 56% from weekend #1 to #2 and I expect the roughly the same result for Smaug. As for the other three new entries, you’ll notice there’s only a $3.5 million difference between what I believe they’ll debut at. Therefore, these films could easily fluctuate between spots 3-5. Also if any of these newbies were to come in below my projections, it could allow Disney’s Frozen to remain in the top five. Got all that? We shall see how it shakes out, but here’s my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $41.9 million ($61.2 million Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million
4. Walking with Dinosaurs
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday.
Saving Mr. Banks is a product from Walt Disney Studios that focuses on the making of one of their beloved classics, 1964’s Mary Poppins. It stars Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers and Tom Hanks as Walt Disney himself and comes from The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock. The supporting cast includes Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Banks has earned Oscar buzz for Best Picture and for the performances of Ms. Thompson and Mr. Hanks.
With a reported budget of just a meager $35 million, this seems primed to have a nice run throughout the holiday season. Reviews have mostly been positive as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. With its recognizable stars and focus on a very well-known classic, Banks could play to adults and children alike.
The main question as far as its opening is whether Banks will start big out of the gate or be more of a slow burner with smallish drop-offs from weekend to weekend. My gut tells me that the latter is a better possibility. There is plenty of competition this weekend for adult moviegoers – Anchorman 2, American Hustle – and for younger audiences – The Hobbit in weekend #2, Walking with Dinosaurs.
If Banks earns over $20 million this weekend (which is certainly possible), that should be considered quite an accomplishment. My estimate puts it a bit below that, though I think future weekends should be kind to it.
Saving Mr. Banks opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:
Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:
I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!
As predicted, Disney’s animated Frozen overtook The Hunger Games: Catching Fire for the top spot at the box office this weekend, but both titles earned a bit less than my estimates.
Frozen took in $31.6 million in its second weekend for #1, below my $34.8M prediction. Disney’s feature has made $134 million since its Thanksgiving opening. An eventual gross in the $250M range seems likely.
In weekend #3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire dropped to second with an estimated $27 million, under my $32M prediction. This massive sequel has earned $336M since its debut and still looks on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing picture.
Out of the Furnace, the crime thriller with Christian Bale, flopped with only $5.3 million for third place. I gave it a bit too much credit with a $9.6M prediction. Rounding out the top five: Thor: The Dark World in fourth with $4.7 million (just under my $5.2M estimate) and Delivery Man in fifth with $3.7 million (just over my $3.5M estimate).
Be sure to check the blog later when I’ll roll out my predictions for two very different sequels – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas.
The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:
Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.
Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.
On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.
Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. Out of the Furnance
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!
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