Tag: Disney

January 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The initial cinematic experiences of 2026 arrive this weekend via disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration, animalistic horror tale Primate, and the nationwide expansion of dramedy Is This Thing On? You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Greenland 2: Migration Box Office Prediction
Primate Box Office Prediction
Is This Thing On? Box Office Prediction

My near teens projection for Gerard Butler’s Migration would give it the highest debut of the newcomers, but that won’t be near enough to dislodge Avatar: Fire and Ash from a fourth frame atop the rankings. Now that the Christmas corridor has lapsed, holdovers should generally see declines in the 50% or so range.

Primate could certainly over perform as the genre sometimes does, but I’ve got it in a race with a fellow (and family friendlier) creature feature in the seventh weekend of Zootopia 2. The Housemaid should round out the top five.

As for Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On?, my meager $2.6 million take puts it well outside the top half of the charts. It might even fail to make the top 10. I’m expecting the same for Angel Studios’ I Was a Stranger. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for it. I’ll say $2.4 million.

And with that, here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $20 million

2. Greenland 2: Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Primate

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (January 2-4)

It was a heap of holiday leftovers as 2026 rang in with Avatar: Fire and Ash dominating with $41.4 million, in line with my $41.4 million call. The James Cameron threequel is up to $307 million after three weeks. This will not reach the heights of its predecessors, but I would imagine the studio would have no qualms with future sequels.

Zootopia 2 only eased 2% in weekend #6 with $19.3 million, toppling my $15.3 million prediction. The Disney blockbuster stands at $364 million.

The Housemaid has developed commendable legs with only a 1% dip at $15.1 million compared to my $12.5 million estimate. The buzzy thriller has earned $75 million after three weeks with nine digits in its sights.

Marty Supreme was fourth with $12.5 million (I went a little higher at $14.2 million) as the potential Timothée Chalamet Oscar winner has grown to $56 million in its second frame of wide release.

Anaconda rounded out the top five with $10 million, slithering beyond my $8 million projection for $45 million after two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants found itself in sixth with $8.3 millon (I said $7.7 million) for $57 million after three weeks,

Biblical animated pic David was seventh with $7.6 million, a touch ahead of my $6.5 million guesstimate for $69 million in three weeks,

Finally, Song Sung Blue was eighth with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) with $25 million now in the coffers of the musical drama.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 2-4 Box Office Predictions

We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.

Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).

Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $42 million

2. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

7. David

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (December 26-28)

Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.

Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.

Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.

The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.

Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.

Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.

Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Box Office Prediction
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution Box Office Prediction

I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.

As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.

Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.

Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $36.5 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (November 28-30)

Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.

I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.

Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.

The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.

Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Zootopia 2

As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.

At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.

The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction
Eternity Box Office Prediction

Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.

As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.

Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?

Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $82 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

6. Eternity

Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.

Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.

In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.

Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.

Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.

Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.

Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.

I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.

Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Eternity prediction, click here:

Eternity Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Arco

The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).

Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Twits

An animated tale based on Roald Dahl’s 45-year-old novel, The Twits is out on Netflix and its marks the solo directorial debut of Phil Johnston after co-directing Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet. The voice cast includes Margo Martindale, Johnny Vegas, Natalie Portman, Emilia Clarke, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Jason Mantozoukas, Timothy Simons, Alan Tudyk, and Nicole Byer.

The source material earned high praise for the author while the film adaptation has not. Rotten Tomatoes is at 53% with a 46 on Metacritic. It is fair to assume this won’t be getting the Animated Feature nomination that went to 2009’s Dahl based Fantastic Mr. Fox. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction
Good Fortune Box Office Prediction
After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.

The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.

As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.

Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

2. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Good Fortune

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. After the Hunt

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 10-12)

Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.

Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.

One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.

I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.

The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.

Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions – Tron: Ares

Out Friday, sci-fi action tale Tron: Ares is the third feature in the Disney franchise that began all the way back in 1982 and continued with a 2010 follow-up. Joachim Rønning handles directorial duties (taking over from Joseph Kosinksi) with Jared Leto headlining and Jeff Bridges reprising his role from the predecessors. The supporting cast includes Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro and Gillian Anderson.

The so-so reviews that greeted it today are on par with what Legacy received 15 years ago. Ares stands at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes and 50 at Metacritic while Legacy had respective numbers of 51% and 49. Neither the original Tron or the sequel managed to get a Visual Effects nod where a mention for Ares would seem most feasible. The first Tron did get a Sound nom (losing to E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial).

Ares could contend (and only contend) in those two races. However, competition from sequels alone is significant. Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good should play in both of them. The Fantastic Four: First Steps is viable in VE and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning could factor into each. I wouldn’t write Ares off, but history isn’t on its side. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…