Tag: Directors Guild of America

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final director for consideration is Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Previous Directing Nominations:

2020: Nomadland (WON)

The Case for Chloé Zhao:

For the tearjerking historical drama, she could make history by becoming the first female to win this twice (only two others have taken the gold). Hamnet is the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. Zhao was nominated everywhere that matters, however…

The Case Against Chloé Zhao:

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has taken all notable precursors – Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the highly predictive DGA. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) has emerged as the competition if Sinners manages a mild BP upset.

The Verdict:

Zhao is not going to achieve filmmaking Oscar #2 though she’s likely to have directed another Best Actress winner via Jessie Buckley with Frances McDormand in Nomadland being the first.

And that concludes for Case Of write-ups for the 98th Academy Awards! FINAL predictions on the winners will be up on the blog in short order…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth director for consideration is Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Joachim Trier:

The Dutch auteur’s family drama exceeded expectations on nominations morning with nine including another at bat for his Original Screenplay with Eskil Vogt. BAFTA and Golden Globe nods preceded the Oscar mention.

The Case Against Joachim Trier:

Trier didn’t make the cut at Critics Choice and, most importantly, Academy bellwether DGA. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has swept the season thus far with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) seen as the only threat.

The Verdict:

Trier might have a slightly stronger shot for his cowriting (though Sinners is looking likely there). A directing victory isn’t happening.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final entrant in Best Actress – Emma Stone in Bugonia…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third director for discussion is Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Josh Safdie:

We went into 2025 wondering which Safdie brother would get the Oscar attention. Brother Benny put out The Smashing Machine in the fall and it generated only a Makeup and Hairstyling nod. Josh’s Marty Supreme nabbed nine mentions including Best Picture. For his direction, precursors noms have come at DGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

The Case Against Josh Safdie:

Paul Thomas Anderson has taken all 3 of those precursors and Ryan Coogler is generally seen as the runner-up. Safdie missed the cut at the Golden Globes.

The Verdict:

Safdie’s first solo work in 17 years could see Timothée Chalamet crowned as Best Actor. That is Supreme‘s best and likely only shot at gold.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth entrant in Best Actress – Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second director to consider is Ryan Coogler for Sinners. If you missed my post covering Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, you can find it here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Ryan Coogler:

He’s the director of the movie with the most nominations (an all-time record of 16) and Sinners is the highest grosser of the 10 movies up for BP. Coogler has taken Hollywood by storm over the past decade with the Creed and Black Panther franchises before this vampire saga gave him his highest acclaim. For his behind the camera work, nods have come at Critics Choice, the Globes, BAFTA, and DGA.

The Case Against Ryan Coogler:

Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in One Battle has taken the DGA, the Globe, and Critics Choice with BAFTA yet to come. The DGA especially is a heavy indicator of the Oscar winner.

The Verdict:

When Sinners did better than anticipated on nomination morning with that historic haul, it opened up the possibility of victories previously unforeseen. If this takes Best Picture (which is certainly feasible), obviously Coogler could come along for the ride. That said, it’s hard to ignore how PTA has swept through the season.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant for Best Actress and that’s because Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is our first director to be considered in that category.

Previous Directing Nominations:

2007: There Will Be Blood (lost to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men); 2017: Phantom Thread (lost to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water); 2021: Licorice Pizza (lost to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog)

The Case for Paul Thomas Anderson:

Plenty! PTA has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for his behind the camera work and is nominated at BAFTA. Most notably, he won the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) prize and that correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time (including five cycles in a row). This is Anderson’s fourth try at the direction award, but his contributions as a producer, director, and writer for his three-decade old career mark his 12th, 13th, and 14th overall Academy mentions. He’s yet to get a trophy. Those nods are spread out over the aforementioned Blood, Thread, and Pizza but also Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. To say there might be voting members who think he’s overdue is an understatement. Battle is the BP frontrunner or at least shares that title with Sinners.

The Cast Against Paul Thomas Anderson:

Sinners. After receiving a record 16 nominations, the chances for the vampire tale to win BP has increased. If the Academy fills their ballots down the line, Ryan Coogler could be the beneficiary of that love.

The Verdict:

DGA makes PTA the heavy favorite even if Sinners (or something else) takes BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second Best Actress contender – Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You…

78th DGA Awards Predictions

The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).

Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Documentary Film

Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)

While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.

Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)

First-Time Feature Film

Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.

Predicted Winner: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Runner-Up: Harry Lighton, Pillion

98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The President’s Cake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

Bst Cinematography

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Sirāt

No Other Choice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Drive” from F1

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Hedda

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilties:

6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscars: The Case of Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Director and that’s Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. If you missed my posts covering the first three contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Coralie Fargeat:

The second French filmmaker in the contending quintet behind Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Fargeat became a three-time nominee for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay with the trippy and acclaimed The Substance. Additional noms for her behind the camera work include the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Coralie Fargeat:

Fargeat missed DGA. Simply stated, Oscar winners for Best Director don’t miss DGA. She’s taken home none of the aforementioned precursors.

The Verdict:

That fact is that the case against is really all that needs to be said. Fargeat has a shot at winning Original Screenplay, but not here where Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) are competing for the statue.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Best Actress and and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here…

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora
Oscars: The Case of Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez

Oscars: The Case of Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our next entry in Best Director and that’s Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez. If you missed my posts covering Sean Baker from Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Jacques Audiard:

While his 2009 drama A Prophet was up for International Feature Film a decade and a half ago, his behind the camera work for Pérez marks his first BP nominee and inaugural directing nod. The Jury prize winner from Cannes has yielded him directorial mentions at DGA, the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Jacques Audiard:

DGA went to Sean Baker for Anora while the Globe and BAFTA was bestowed to The Brutalist‘s Brady Corbet. For Critics Choice, it was Jon M. Chu in Wicked (he didn’t make the Academy’s quintet). The controversy swirling around lead actress Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media posts likely hurt the film in any race that’s not Supporting Actress where Zoe Saldaña is still favored.

The Verdict:

Audiard was somewhat of a long shot before the bad press. He’s more so now.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Demi Moore in The Substance…

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora
Oscars: The Case of Brady Corbet for The Brutalist