As if today’s SAG nominations weren’t enough to ponder, the Directors Guild of America announced its five nominees in their three races this afternoon.
I went 11 for 15 in my picks. As I did with SAG in my previous post, let’s break it down with some initial thoughts.
Feature Film
Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
How I Did: 4/5
No surprises as Payne was my alternate pick over Bradley Cooper (Maestro). The DGA and the Academy usually match on a 4 for 5 basis and Payne is indeed the most vulnerable to nab Oscar attention. Nolan is absolutely the favorite for the victory.
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 3/5
Jefferson, Rockwell, and Song all seemed safe and that’s how it turned out. Martelli and Niasari are in over my calls of Raine Allen Miller (Rye Lane) and Juel Taylor (They Cloned Tyrone). There’s a major frontrunner in this competition as well and it’s Song.
Documentaries
Nominees: Moses Bwayo & Christopher Sharp (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Mstyslav Chernov (20 Days in Mariupol), Madeleine Gavin (Beyond Utopia), Davis Guggenheim (Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie), D. Smith (Kokomo City)
How I Did: 4/5
The Bobi Wine team makes the quintet over Kaouther Ben Hania for Four Daughters. This race is a little trickier to make a quick pick and I’ll sit on it until I make that prediction shortly before the February 10th event.
As if there weren’t enough Oscar precursor activity with the SAG and DGA nominations arriving tomorrow, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveil their ten nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and Best Animated Motion Picture on Friday.
In 2021, the Academy reverted back to a set 10 for BP contenders. There was an 8 for 10 correlation that year between the PGA’s movies and the Academy’s. Last year it was 7 for 10.
One commonality is that international titles usually don’t make the cut with PGA. While Parasite was a rare exception in 2019, Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front weren’t to be found on PGA’s list in the last two years. Therefore I’m leaving out Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest for the 35th ceremony. Either or both could pop up, but this seems to be the smarter play.
With those potential Oscar BP hopefuls out, I do believe there’s a somewhat safe 8 to predict: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. I could see one or two potentially miss – Fiction, Maestro, and Lives might be vulnerable. Yet I won’t go as far in projecting any of them out.
That leaves two slots. The PGA often goes for blockbusters that the Academy ignores. Examples over the past decade include Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and its sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
The list does not include Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse from 2018 (somewhat surprisingly). I’m hesitant, therefore, to include its sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The PGA could simply decide that it’ll likely win their Animated race and can be left off. However, Across was an even bigger financial success with glowing reviews. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m giving Spidey one of the open spots.
For the tenth film, there’s plenty of hopefuls. Could this be where The Color Purple makes a last stand for viability with the Academy? Could The Iron Claw pop up? Perhaps PGA will go with an unexpected title that didn’t garner across the board critical acclaim, but has a high profile director. Napoleon or Ferrari come to my mind. Will Saltburn or May December get in?
Those are all, to varying degrees, feasible. I ultimately am going with Air from Ben Affleck. While I don’t think it gets in for BP at the Oscars, the reviews and overall feeling that this is a rock solid sports drama puts it in over some of the aforementioned others.
As for the animated race and their five contenders, we’ve already established that Spidey is in. Because of the international movies thing, you may not find freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron here. That same logic could apply to Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. We shall see.
Let’s get to the list of nominees and an alternate, shall we?
The SAG Awards aren’t the only nominations out this Wednesday. We have the Director of Guild of America (DGA) nods coming our way. They are usually an 80% indicator of who the Academy will name for its behind the camera prize.
In the past decade, the DGA quintet has matched the Academy’s on a 4 for 5 level in nine out of the last ten ceremonies. The only outlier is 2018 when it was 3 for 5. Note there is no 5 for 5 correlation.
So where does that leave this year’s DGA mix? For the last several weeks, I have had the following five filmmakers pegged for Oscar inclusion: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). It’s fair to say this is the consensus group among awards prognosticators.
Let’s assume there’s a 4 for 5 match. I believe Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig are safe bets. If anyone from that trio missed DGA, it would be considered a surprising omission.
Then I’d say Lanthimos is a near lock. My slight hesitation comes from him being left out in 2018 for The Favourite. Yet I’ll say he’s in.
That means I’m leaving Glazer on the cutting room floor and that makes some sense. The DGA has a history of omitting makers of foreign titles that the Academy recognizes. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).
Don’t get me wrong. Glazer could get in as Zone is being hailed specifically for its directorial choices. I cannot, however, bring myself to match the DGA picks with my current Academy selections.
For the fifth slot, I’m going with Bradley Cooper for Maestro. That’s another title I believe will be appreciated for its directorial work perhaps more than other contenders like Alexander Payne (The Holdovers).
Celine Song (Past Lives) is certainly a threat. However, she’s the frontrunner for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in First-Time Feature Film race. She could be a double nominee, but I doubt it.
Here are my picks for all three feature DGA contests with an alternate selection as well.
Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
First-Time Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Raine Allen Miller, Rye Lane
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives
Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone
Alternate: Danny and Michael Philippou, Talk to Me
After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.
For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).
2018: 14/21
2019: 18/21
2020: 13/20
2021: 17/20
Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.
Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.
OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.
Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.
Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.
Predicted Winner: Navalny
Runner-Up: Fire of Love
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: The Whale
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.
Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Original Song
“Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.
Predicted Winner: Babylon
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis
1 Win
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking
I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!
Steven Spielberg’s direction of The Fabelmans is my final Case Of post for the filmmakers vying for the prize at the Academy Awards.
The Case for Steven Spielberg:
He’s Steven Spielberg. Arguably the most iconic and famous director in the medium’s history, he drew kudos for this most personal of projects that drew from his upbringing. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association honored him with their directorial statue at the Golden Globes. For his ninth nomination in this category (marking 22 total when factoring contending Pictures and his screenplay for this), voters may feel he’s overdue since it’s been nearly a quarter century since the last win. As a reminder, he’s a previous recipient for 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan.
The Case Against Steven Spielberg:
He’s not Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert of Everything Everywhere All at Once. The Daniels have taken the majority of the precursors like Critics Choice and especially the Directors Guild (where the DGA and Oscar match is high). Spielberg wasn’t even nominated for BAFTA. The film itself, while critically acclaimed, was a box office flop.
Previous Nominations (directing only):
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977); Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981); E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982); Schindler’s List (1993) – WON; Saving Private Ryan (1998) – WON; Munich (2005); Lincoln (2012); West Side Story (2021)
The Verdict:
Due to his legendary status, Spielberg has a sliver of a chance to pull a major upset over the Daniels. Yet it’s grown much smaller due to the Daniels dominance this season.
My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
For the other directorial hopefuls in my Case Of series, click here:
Swedish satirist Ruben Östlund’s direction of Triangle of Sadness is next up in my Case Of posts for the directors vying for the Oscar.
The Case for Ruben Östlund:
After garnering acclaim for Force Majeure (2014) and 2017’s The Square (which nabbed a foreign language feature nod), his English-language debutcornered three noms in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It generated buzz early when it took the Palme d’or at Cannes. The admiration for the film led to his surprise inclusion in the filmmaking quintet.
The Case Against Ruben Östlund:
In Best Director, there is usually a surprise nominee. That’s Östlund this time. The downside is that the surprise nominee doesn’t win. He wasn’t up in any of the key precursors like DGA, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice Awards.
Other Nominations:
None for direction
Foreign Language Film (The Square; 2017); Original Screenplay (Triangle of Sadness; 2022)
The Verdict:
Of the five hopefuls in the race, Östlund stands the fifth best (so… worst) chance at nabbing the statue.
My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans!
The other entries for the Best Director contenders can be accessed here:
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
How reliable is the Director Guild of America (DGA) recipient as it pertains to the eventual Oscar winner for Best Director? In the 21st century, the match has been 19 of 22 times. In 2000, Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) took DGA and the Academy Award went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. Ben Affleck was the DGA recipient in 2012 for Argo though he didn’t get an Oscar nod. Ang Lee, for Life of Pi, took the gold instead. Sam Mendes (1917) was DGA in 2019, but Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) was the Academy’s choice. All others years corresponded in the century corresponded.
The DGA Award is revealed tomorrow night and here’s your nominees:
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
There’s a 4/5 correlation with the Oscar nominees (par for the course). Kosinski is not in the Academy’s quintet while Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) is. Therefore it’s safe to rule the Maverick maker out.
Neither Field nor McDonagh have taken any major precursors. The Daniels and Spielberg have. For the Daniels, they were the Critics Choice victors. At the Golden Globes, it was Spielberg. To call this is a two-person (or three technically) race seems accurate. Anyone else winning would be a considerable upset.
A little less than a month before the Oscar ceremony, I do believe Everything stands as your soft Oscar frontrunner. Spielberg saw a surprising omission at the BAFTAs where he didn’t even make their shortlist. Due to his legendary status, it would be foolish to discount him. However, I believe the momentum lies with Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert so…
Predicted DGA Winner(s):
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I’ll make my DGA commentary part of my recap post for the BAFTAs on Sunday evening. Stay tuned!
Martin McDonagh’s direction of The Banshees of Inisherin is next up for the quintet in that category in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Martin McDonagh:
When a movie has a legit shot at winning Best Picture and the filmmaker is nominated, he’s got a chance. That’s the case here. For the tragicomedy, the acclaimed director/playwright has been nominated in the key precursors DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Martin McDonagh:
At Critics Choice, the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. At the Globes, it was Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). McDonagh’s victory at the Globes came in screenplay and that could occur with the Academy (where he’s been nominated twice before for written works In Bruges and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
Previous Nominations:
None for direction
Six other nominations for Live-Action Short Film (Six Shooter, 2005, WON); Original Screenplay (In Bruges, 2008); Picture and Original Screenplay (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Picture and Original Screenplay (The Banshees of Inisherin)
The Verdict:
A sweeping Banshees night still could leave McDonagh out in director in favor of the Daniels or Spielberg. He could take screenplay instead under that scenario.
My Case Of posts will continue with Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie!
If you missed my other Director write-ups, they can accessed here:
Actor turned lauded filmmaker Todd Field is the second director on deck for My Case Of posts covering that competition at the 95th Academy Awards.
The Case for Todd Field:
Tár, Field’s third behind the camera feature, is perhaps the critics darling of awards season and voters may wish to honor it somewhere. It helps that there’s no slam dunk pick in this quintet for the victory. He has shown up in precursors including Critics Choice, DGA, and BAFTA. The Academy has nominated him multiple times as a producer and writer (though this is his first directing nod).
The Case Against Todd Field:
Critics Choice went for the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) while the Globes didn’t nominate him at all. The best chance for a win probably lies with its lead Cate Blanchett. With Everything as a soft frontrunner for Picture and the possibility of Globe recipient Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) taking the prize, that puts the rest of the hopefuls at a competitive disadvantage.
Previous Nominations:
None in Director (he has been nominated as a producer and writer for In the Bedroom and Little Children). He also picked up an original screenplay mention for this.
The Verdict:
The uncertainty of this contest could pave the way for a surprise winner. However, Best Director is not usually a race where that occurs. Field would need to take BAFTA or DGA for me to think he has a legit shot.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ana de Armas in Blonde!
If you missed my other posts on the nominees for Director, you can access them here:
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