As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second director to consider is Ryan Coogler for Sinners. If you missed my post covering Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, you can find it here:
He’s the director of the movie with the most nominations (an all-time record of 16) and Sinners is the highest grosser of the 10 movies up for BP. Coogler has taken Hollywood by storm over the past decade with the Creed and Black Panther franchises before this vampire saga gave him his highest acclaim. For his behind the camera work, nods have come at Critics Choice, the Globes, BAFTA, and DGA.
The Case Against Ryan Coogler:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in One Battle has taken the DGA, the Globe, and Critics Choice with BAFTA yet to come. The DGA especially is a heavy indicator of the Oscar winner.
The Verdict:
When Sinners did better than anticipated on nomination morning with that historic haul, it opened up the possibility of victories previously unforeseen. If this takes Best Picture (which is certainly feasible), obviously Coogler could come along for the ride. That said, it’s hard to ignore how PTA has swept through the season.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant for Best Actress and that’s because Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is our first director to be considered in that category.
Previous Directing Nominations:
2007: There Will Be Blood (lost to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men); 2017: Phantom Thread (lost to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water); 2021: Licorice Pizza (lost to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog)
The Case for Paul Thomas Anderson:
Plenty! PTA has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for his behind the camera work and is nominated at BAFTA. Most notably, he won the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) prize and that correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time (including five cycles in a row). This is Anderson’s fourth try at the direction award, but his contributions as a producer, director, and writer for his three-decade old career mark his 12th, 13th, and 14th overall Academy mentions. He’s yet to get a trophy. Those nods are spread out over the aforementioned Blood, Thread, and Pizza but also Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. To say there might be voting members who think he’s overdue is an understatement. Battle is the BP frontrunner or at least shares that title with Sinners.
The Cast Against Paul Thomas Anderson:
Sinners. After receiving a record 16 nominations, the chances for the vampire tale to win BP has increased. If the Academy fills their ballots down the line, Ryan Coogler could be the beneficiary of that love.
The Verdict:
DGA makes PTA the heavy favorite even if Sinners (or something else) takes BP.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second Best Actress contender – Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You…
The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).
Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Documentary Film
Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)
While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.
Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the nominee #5 and that’s Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering the previous four contenders, you can find them here:
Academy voters would be selecting one of the most widely seen nominees (it grossed more than arguable frontrunner One Battle After Another). The sports dramedy amassed a laudable eight additional nods including Safdie’s direction, his Original Screenplay with Ronald Bronstein, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, and Production Design. And of course there’s the nod for Marty himself, Timothée Chalamet, in lead Actor. It has landed BP placement in all noteworthy precursors – the Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, for its ensemble at SAG Actor, and Safdie at DGA.
The Case Against Marty Supreme:
It wasn’t as widely seen as the other arguable frontrunner Sinners. Supreme has yet to get a BP victory anywhere and it was a slight surprise that it missed other acting nominations besides Chalamet (supporting players Gwyneth Paltrow and especially Odessa A’Zion were thought to be possibilities).
The Verdict:
Marty Supreme is reminiscent of Hamnet, my previous Case Of post. It received a bounty of mentions but its best (and probably only) chance at gold is in the lead acting field. For Hamnet, it’s with Jessie Buckley in Actress and with Supreme where the third time could definitely be the charm for Chalamet.
My Case Of posts will continue with One Battle After Another…
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:
I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.
Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.
Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.
Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.
Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.
Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.
I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.
A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.
In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for James Mangold:
After a long career with varied projects like Cop Land, Girl Interrupted, Walk the Line, Logan, Ford v Ferrari, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic is his first entry into Best Director. He made the quintet at DGA. The Academy could honor him for the overall body of work.
The Case Against James Mangold:
It hasn’t played out that way in precursors as Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) have been your winners. Mangold additionally didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, or Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
Mangold’s first nod will be just that and not a victory.
My Case Of posts have concluded just five days before the 97th Academy Awards. My final predictions for the ceremony will be posted tomorrow…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Director and that’s Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. If you missed my posts covering the first three contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Coralie Fargeat:
The second French filmmaker in the contending quintet behind Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Fargeat became a three-time nominee for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay with the trippy and acclaimed The Substance. Additional noms for her behind the camera work include the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Coralie Fargeat:
Fargeat missed DGA. Simply stated, Oscar winners for Best Director don’t miss DGA. She’s taken home none of the aforementioned precursors.
The Verdict:
That fact is that the case against is really all that needs to be said. Fargeat has a shot at winning Original Screenplay, but not here where Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) are competing for the statue.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Best Actress and and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our next entry in Best Director and that’s Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez. If you missed my posts covering Sean Baker from Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Jacques Audiard:
While his 2009 drama A Prophet was up for International Feature Film a decade and a half ago, his behind the camera work for Pérez marks his first BP nominee and inaugural directing nod. The Jury prize winner from Cannes has yielded him directorial mentions at DGA, the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Jacques Audiard:
DGA went to Sean Baker for Anora while the Globe and BAFTA was bestowed to The Brutalist‘s Brady Corbet. For Critics Choice, it was Jon M. Chu in Wicked (he didn’t make the Academy’s quintet). The controversy swirling around lead actress Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media posts likely hurt the film in any race that’s not Supporting Actress where Zoe Saldaña is still favored.
The Verdict:
Audiard was somewhat of a long shot before the bad press. He’s more so now.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Demi Moore in The Substance…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. If you missed my post covering Sean Baker from Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Brady Corbet:
Mr. Corbet is going the Ron Howard route as a child actor turned acclaimed filmmaker and he’s already got hardware to show for it. Yesterday he took home the BAFTA for his direction to go with his Golden Globe from a few weeks back. While Picture and Director often match, it seems his behind the camera achievement for The Brutalist could win him the latter even if the film doesn’t take the top prize.
The Case Against Brady Corbet:
7 out of the last 10 Golden Globe directing winners won the Oscar. It’s also a 70% ratio over the past decade for BAFTA. For DGA, it is 9 out of the last 10 and Corbet didn’t win that one. Instead it was Sean Baker for Anora. He also came up short at Critics Choice where Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected victor.
The Verdict:
Corbet seemed like a relatively safe bet before DGA. Now it feels like a coin flip between Baker and him.
My Case Of posts will continue the third hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Mikey Madison in Anora…
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