Tag: Derek Cianfrance

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Channing Tatum plays a real life robber using unconventional break-in methods in the dramedy Roofman. The Paramount release is out October 10th with Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) directing. Kirsten Dunst costars with a supporting cast including Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Juno Temple, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Abuba, Lily Collias, Jimmy O. Yang and Peter Dinklage.

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month, reviews were mostly complimentary with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic. However, the buzz wasn’t strong enough to get in the awards conversation.

Roofman will rely solely on Tatum’s drawing power, but plenty of viewers may wait until streaming options are available. The ceiling for this could be $10 million (which would be an admirable result). I think mid single digits is where it lands.

Roofman opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Roofman

Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.

While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Wolf Man

Leigh Whannell follows up his acclaimed horror reboot The Invisible Man from 2020 with another iconic interpretation of a genre classic in Wolf Man this weekend. Christopher Abbott and Julia Garner headline the low-budget Universal/Blumhouse production with Matilda Firth and Sam Jaeger costarring.

Originally planned as a vehicle for director Derek Cianfrance to star Ryan Gosling, Wolf is not generating the same acclaim as its replacement filmmaker’s previous venture. Invisible topped out at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and 72 for Metacritic. Wolf currently sports a 60% Tomato meter with Metacritic at 49.

The only race where Wolf stands a shot at awards attention is Makeup & Hairstyling (for the latter designation of that category). 2010’s The Wolfman with Benicio del Toro and Emily Blunt actually won the Oscar for Makeup (before the Academy apparently cared about hair). A safe assumption is that voters won’t have this picture fresh in their minds a year from now to nominate it, but let’s see how competition stacks up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Light Between Oceans

Derek Cianfrance’s The Light Between Oceans sure looked like an Oscar contender on paper, but things change quickly in the busy awards derby. Based on a bestselling novel and starring a trio of Oscar winners and nominees, the period piece romance opens Friday. Frankly, I thought it was a bit curious that reviews were embargoed until yesterday.

Now we may know why. Sitting at a so-so 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, many critics haven’t been kind to it. Cianfrance has experienced raves throughout his directorial career with 2010’s Blue Valentine and 2013’s The Place Beyond the Pines (neither received Academy attention, however).

Critics have been gentler with the performers, with Rachel Weisz especially being singled out. She remains a contender in Supporting Actress – albeit a long shot. Fassbender and Vikander appear to be out of the running, as do nods for Picture or Director. Its best chance at recognition probably goes to its composer, Alexandre Desplat. It would mark his ninth nomination.

While La La Land gave us a surefire autumn contender this week, The Light Between Oceans presented quite the opposite.

The Light Between Oceans Box Office Prediction

The Light Between Oceans opens over Labor Day weekend and hopes to bring in a sizable female crowd to combat the typical box office doldrums of this particular holiday weekend. The World War I era romantic drama stars Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender and Oscar winners Alicia Vikander and Rachel Weisz. Based on a 2012 novel by M.L. Stedman, it’s directed by Derek Cianfrance, best known for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines.

Light‘s best hope at audience exposure should be if reviews are strong and it generates any Oscar buzz. This is an unknown at press time. That said, films that premiere over Labor Day typically have a tough time breaking out (this is a traditionally very slow time at multiplexes). I’ll predict Oceans manages to just break double digits over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a couple million added for the Monday extension of the holiday frame.

The Light Between Oceans opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Morgan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/