Tag: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

October 31-November 2 Box Office Predictions

The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.

New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction
Bugonia Box Office Prediction

I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.

That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.

Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.

If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.

So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.

Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:

*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Back to the Future

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.

Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.

Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 24-26 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction
Regretting You Box Office Prediction
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.

Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Ends with Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.

As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.

After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how it see it shaking out:

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

5. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.

Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.

Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.

One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.

Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.

Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll look for Chainsaw Man – The Move: Reze Arc to cut impressive grosses when it debuts October 24th. The anime fantasy from Japan serves as a sequel to the first season of the manga TV show from Tatsuki Fujimoto. Tatsuya Yoshihara directs.

In September, the film has performed well in its home country. It managed to knock out Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle after nine weeks atop the charts. That said, it made about $8 million in U.S. dollars compared to Castle‘s start of $37 million in comparable currency.

That same story should play out domestically. While Castle decimated the all-time North American anime opening at $70 million, Chainsaw might manage low double digits or low teens.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction

For my Regretting You prediction, click here:

Regretting You Box Office Prediction

October 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction
The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction
Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.

The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.

While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.

My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.

Here’s I have it all shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.

Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction
The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.

Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.

I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.

The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $27 million

2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. The Strangers – Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. Him

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.

Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.

The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.

Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Him Box Office Prediction
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction
The Senior Box Office Prediction

Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.

The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.

As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.

Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.

Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.

Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:

1. Him

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. The Long Walk

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

7. The Senior

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.

The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.

Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.

The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).

Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the box office while Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk and mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues hope for strong showings. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle Box Office Prediction
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction
The Long Walk Box Office Prediction
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues Box Office Prediction

The influx of material could cause the top 5 to consist of 80% fresh product. Demon Slayer appears primed for a breakout performance that doubles the best in show previous start of the franchise in 2021. My low to mid 50s estimate should easily give it the top spot.

The Conjuring: Last Rites vastly blew past expectations (more on that below). In its sophomore frame, a slippage in the mid to even high 60s could occur and would be perfectly understandable.

Franchise finale Abbey should debut in range with its 2022 predecessor in the mid to higher teens for a likely third place posting.

Despite impressive reviews, The Long Walk could struggle to each double digits (it doesn’t help that Conjuring is still out there).

Finally, Spinal Tap II might see mid single digits and that may be enough for fifth place.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $64.6 million

2. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

4. The Long Walk

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Spinal Tap II: The End Continues

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (September 5-7)

Even the rosiest of prognoses didn’t match what The Conjuring: Last Rites managed to accomplish. The ninth overall pic in the franchise and fourth with a Conjuring moniker scared up $84 million and ghosted my measly $58.2 million prediction. Rites surpassed the best opening of the series (The Nun at $53 million) with plenty of room to spare. Warner Bros continued its remarkable 2025 in the horror genre (Sinners, Weapons).

Hamilton, a filmed version of the already iconic play, was second with $10.1 million on its 10th anniversary. That’s ahead of my $8.7 million estimate and a commendable gross considering this has been streaming on Disney+ for five years. This is only a one-week engagement which explains why you won’t find it in the top 5 above.

Weapons was third with $5.2 million, in range with my $5.5 million call. In five weeks, it has amassed $142 million.

Freakier Friday, also in week 5, was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million) for $87 million total. It should fall just under or place just over $100 million.

Caught Stealing rounded out the top five with a hefty 59% decline at $3.1 million. I went a bit higher at $4 million. The two-week take is an underwhelming $14 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle Box Office Prediction

The generously titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the domestic marketplace starting September 12th. Tracking indicates that it will. Based on the popular Japanese manga series, it the latest installment in a franchise that continues to grow in popularity. A direct sequel to the fourth season of the anime TV series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the Crunchyroll distributed two and a half hour fantasy.

Castle has already dominated the overseas market. In its home country, it stands as the year’s highest grosser and third largest in history. In 2021, Mugen Train started off with $21 million stateside. Two years later, To the Swordsmith Village debuted to just over $10 million which 2024’s To the Hashira Training earned north of $11 million.

Buzz is louder this time around with expectations elevated. At the low end, Castle is anticipated to double the figures of its two predecessors. Some projections have this as high as $70 million plus! That would be an astonishing gross, but this could catch a wave making it possible. I’m going with low to mid 60s for what would be a record shattering beginning for its genre.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle opening weekend prediction: $64.6 million

For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction

For my The Long Walk prediction, click here:

The Long Walk Box Office Prediction

For my Spinal Tap II: The End Continues prediction, click here:

Spinal Tap II: The End Continues Box Office Prediction