The generously titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the domestic marketplace starting September 12th. Tracking indicates that it will. Based on the popular Japanese manga series, it the latest installment in a franchise that continues to grow in popularity. A direct sequel to the fourth season of the anime TV series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the Crunchyroll distributed two and a half hour fantasy.
Castle has already dominated the overseas market. In its home country, it stands as the year’s highest grosser and third largest in history. In 2021, Mugen Train started off with $21 million stateside. Two years later, To the Swordsmith Village debuted to just over $10 million which 2024’s To the Hashira Training earned north of $11 million.
Buzz is louder this time around with expectations elevated. At the low end, Castle is anticipated to double the figures of its two predecessors. Some projections have this as high as $70 million plus! That would be an astonishing gross, but this could catch a wave making it possible. I’m going with low to mid 60s for what would be a record shattering beginning for its genre.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle opening weekend prediction: $64.6 million
For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:
**Blogger’s Update (05/30): Since it is only playing on just over 1000 screens, I am lowering my prediction from $6.5M to $3.9M
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll hope fans of Japan’s manga TV series dive into Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle when it debuts this weekend. The animated sports tale stems from a show that ran from 2012 to 2020. Susumu Mitsunaka directs a voice cast that includes Ayumu Murase, Kaito Ishikawa, Yuki Kaji, and Yuichi Nakamura.
The distributor gets the most bang for its buck overseas as Battle is already the second highest grosser in Japan for 2024. Obviously stateside grosses will be considerably smaller. Crunchyroll’s titles have seen diminishing domestic unveilings as of late. It is also worth noting that they usually generate about 70% of their business in the first weekend.
In February of this year, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training did bring in $11.5 million and that was just over 2023 predecessor To the Swordsmith Village at $10.1 million. Outside of that franchise, One Piece Film: Red premiered with $9.3 million in November ’23 while Spy x Family Code: White stalled with $4.8 million just last month.
I’ll give Haikyu!! a mid to higher single digits opening.
Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare isn’t the only spy action comedy out next weekend. Crunchyroll has the Japanese animated variety of the genre hitting screens with Spy x Family Code: White from director Takashi Katagirl.
An expansion of the anime TV show, Spy came out in Japan around Christmastime and it has earned over $40 million overseas. I haven’t seen a theater count yet, but recent Crunchyroll distributions roll out to around 1700-1900 venues.
There’s a consistency in their premieres. 2022’s One Piece Film: Red took in $9.3 million while last year’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village came hit $10.1 million. In February, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training debuted to $11.5 million.
Based on that, high single digits or low double digits certainly seems like the way to go. My forecast actually puts it above the Ungentlemanly gang.
Spy x Family Code: White opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.
Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.
Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $83.6 million
2. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.
Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.
Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.
Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.
Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.
Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.
Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:
With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.
I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).
The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.
While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.
Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.
Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:
1. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $3 million
6. Migration
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
7. Drive-Away Dolls
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (February 16-19)
The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.
Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.
Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.
The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.
Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.
Japan’s animated action fantasy franchise hopes to continue cutting into the American box office when Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira premieres on February 23rd. Haruo Sotozaki, who helmed previous entries Mugen Train (2021) and To the Swordsmith Village (2023), returns.
The trilogy of manga offerings is spawned from the anime TV series that ran from 2016-2020. While their profits are larger overseas, domestic grosses have impressed. In April of 2021, Mugen took in $21 million in its opening weekend with just under $50 million for the overall haul. In March of last year, Swordsmith‘s earnings were a cut below. It made $10.1 million out of the gate and the abbreviated run ended at $16.9 million.
I’m forecasting that Hashira will experience similar numbers to Swordsmith. I don’t anticipate a significant drop-off and it could even slightly exceed its predecessor’s start.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
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