Tag: Deadpool & Wolverine

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hard Truths

The End

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Valeria Golino, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

Dropped Out:

Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Evil Does Not Exist

Simon of the Mountain

Uprising

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Transformers One

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Union

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Queer

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Sasquatch Sunset

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wicked

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

August 30-September 2 Box Office Predictions

Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

AfrAId Box Office Prediction
Reagan Box Office Prediction

Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.

AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.

How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.

The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.

Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. AfrAId

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

6. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

8. Reagan

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 23-25)

Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.

Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.

It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.

A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.

The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.

Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction
The Crow Box Office Prediction
The Forge Box Office Prediction

The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.

The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.

Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.

If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. The Crow

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 16-18)

Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.

Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.

It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.

Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.

Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).

Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).

As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

4. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.

As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.

Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.

Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.

Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: It Ends with Us

Based on Colleen Hoover’s 2016 bestseller, the romantic drama It Ends with Us begins what should be a fruitful box office run this weekend. Justin Baldoni directs and costars with Blake Lively. The supporting cast includes Brandon Sklenar, Jenny Slate, and Hasan Minhaj.

Despite its financial prospects looking encouraging (it should finish a strong second behind Deadpool & Wolverine starring Lively’s hubby), Oscar possibilities are considerably weaker. The melodrama stands at 61% on RT and that won’t start any awards conversation. I will note the current rating is higher than 2022’s Where the Crawdads Sing (34%) which this is frequently being compared to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 5th Edition

Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.

One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.

I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.

The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.

Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.

I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)

20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)

21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)

24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

All We Imagine as Light

I Saw the TV Glow

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)

8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million

Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.

Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.

Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.

It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

For my Borderlands prediction, click here:

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

Trap Box Office Prediction
Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.

Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.

Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.

And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $84.6 million

2. Trap

Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Harold and the Purple Crayon

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26-28)

Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.

The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.

Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.

Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.

Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.

Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…