Tag: DCU

January 12-15 Box Office Predictions

The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction
The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction
The Book of Clarence Box Office Prediction

Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.

The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.

If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.

I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.

The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.

And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

8. The Book of Clarence

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 5-7)

Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.

As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.

Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.

Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.

The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.

The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 22-25 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction
Migration Box Office Prediction
The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction
Anyone but You Box Office Prediction
Poor Things Box Office Prediction
The Color Purple Box Office Prediction
Ferrari Box Office Prediction
The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.

Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).

Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.

I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.

As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.

I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.

That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.

Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

5. The Iron Claw

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

6. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

7. Poor Things

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.

It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.

The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.

Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.

Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hopes to rescue a troubling 2023 for the DCU when it opens December 22nd. Following up on the 2018 original, James Wan returns to direct with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman costar.

With a reported budget of $215 million, the sequel needs solid domestic and overseas grosses to stay above water. That could be a challenge. The DCU has seen its share of flops this year including Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle.

The superhero’s first adventure five years ago ended up making an impressive $335 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. It exceeded expectations, but Kingdom could fall under or just match them.

With Christmas on a Monday, I’m projecting a Friday to Monday number. Aquaman also came out on the big holiday weekend and Christmas was on a Tuesday. It took in $105 million in its first five days. This one might be fortunate to gross about half of that during its first four. I’m saying it won’t.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.

After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.

Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.

The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.

Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.

I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.

The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

For my The Holdovers prediction, click here:

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

September 8-10 Box Office Predictions

A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Nun II Box Office Prediction
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Box Office Prediction

In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.

As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.

Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.

Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.

Here’s how I envision the top six:

1. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

6. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.

Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.

Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.

Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.

Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.

Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 1-4 Box Office Predictions

Denzel Washington hopes for a fruitful holiday weekend at the box office with The Equalizer 3. It aims to have the second best Labor Day debut of all time as the only newcomer of the frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Equalizer 3 Box Office Prediction

The third feature in the action trilogy should have little trouble achieving that 2nd best mark. Labor Day weekend is normally one where studios avoid breaking out the big guns. In 2021, Marvel ignored that tradition with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and its $94 million beginning. The runner-up opening belongs to 2007’s Halloween remake at $30 million and I’ve got Equalizer a shade under $40 million.

With an extra day of grosses, the weekend should see meager declines and even some increases for holdovers. I believe this should allow Barbie to stay put in second for the third week in a row while current champ Gran Turismo drops to third. The four to six slots should be a combination of Blue Beetle, Oppenheimer, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I have that trio separated by just over a million so their positions could fluctuate.

Here’s how I envision that top six and keep in mind these estimates are for the four-day:

1. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

National Cinema Day on Sunday helped some pics post small declines, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Playstation based Gran Turismo from a so-so start. The racing drama took in $17.4 million, a tad below my $19.3 million projection. That’s good enough for first, but hardly provides Sony with bragging rights. With an A Cinemascore, it’ll hope for legs over Labor Day and could be successful as I only have it falling around 15%.

Barbie was second with $15.1 million compared to my $16.5 million take. The year’s largest hit is up to $592 million in six weeks.

Blue Beetle went from 1st to 3rd with $12.1 million, a shade under my $13.2 million prediction. The DCU flop stands at only $45 million after ten days.

Oppenheimer was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $8.1 million) as the epic has amassed $299 million thus far.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, in range with my $6.8 million estimate. The four-week total is $99 million.

Finally, two newcomers failed to find a crowd. Liam Neeson’s Retribution opened in line with the star’s recent action flicks with $3.5 million for eighth position. That is better than my call of $2.4 million. The nine slot went to sports drama The Hill with $2.3 million as it couldn’t climb to my $3.3 million guesstimate.

That does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you prefer to stream. Until next time…

August 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.

The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction
The Hill Box Office Prediction
Retribution Box Office Prediction

With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.

Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.

As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.

That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.

Here’s how I see that high five playing out:

1. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

3. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.

WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.

As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.

Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.

Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.

Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Blue Beetle

We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.

The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.

It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 18-20 Box Office Predictions

The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction
Strays Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.

As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.

Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Strays

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.

Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.

As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.

Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.

And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…