Tag: DC Studios

August 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction
Weapons Box Office Prediction
Sketch Box Office Prediction

Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).

Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.

As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).

Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $32.5 million

2. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

5. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).

Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.

The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.

Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.

Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.

The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.

Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.

Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $122.4 million

2. Superman

Predicted Gross: $28 million

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. F1

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.

Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.

While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.

Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.

F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.

Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction
Smurfs Box Office Prediction
Eddington Box Office Prediction

I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.

As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.

I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.

There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $56.2 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. F1

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.

Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.

F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.

Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Jurassic World Rebirth achieved the third best debut of 2025, but Superman will attempt to do the same on Friday. James Gunn’s DC reboot of the iconic superhero franchise is the only new wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

Superman Box Office Prediction

In order to reach that third best mark, it’ll need to top Rebirth‘s low 90s start (more on that below). I’m projecting it’ll do so with plenty of room to spare while not reaching the heights of A Minecraft Movie or Lilo & Stitch. My mid to high 120s projection puts it just ahead of 2013’s Man of Steel which kicked off the previous iteration of the series.

As for Rebirth, I’m estimating a sophomore drop around 60%. That would it in line with the second weekend dips for Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Jurassic World: Dominion. It is possible that the Superman competition and the ho-hum B Cinemascore could mean a more precipitous fall.

Holdovers F1, How to Train Your Dragon, and Elio should populate the rest of the top 5 and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $128.6 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

3. F1

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. How to Train You Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Elio

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

Jurassic World Rebirth didn’t match the grosses of the three previous Jurassic World experiences. The dino adventure from Gareth Edwards did, however, manage to outdo most expectations including mine. It ruled over the holiday frame with $92 million from Friday to Sunday and $147.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That exceeds my respective forecasts of $80.8 million and $133 million. The long-running franchise is certainly not extinct and we can anticipate future sequels.

I miscalculated the staying power of F1 in its second lap. The racing drama was second with $25.7 million (a 55% ease). My $39.7 million estimate was obviously far more generous as I assumed word-of-mouth would carry it to a sturdier hold. The ten-day take is still a commendable $109 million and the overseas earnings are impressive.

How to Train Your Dragon was third with $11.2 million, a bit below my $12.9 million call. The live-action remake of the animated pic is up to $224 million in four weeks.

Disney/Pixar’s woes continued as the disappointing Elio was fourth with $5.7 million (I said $6.2 million). The three-week total is just $55 million.

28 Years Later rounded out the top five with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5 million! It’s made $60 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Superman Box Office Prediction

After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.

With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.

The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.

I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.

Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million