Tag: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

This Friday brings us Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, the eighth picture in a franchise over 45 years old and the direct sequel to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes. There have been a number of changes in the past three years with Clovefield director Matt Reeves behind the camera in place of Rise‘s Rupert Wyatt. We also have a new cast of human actors that includes Gary Oldman, Jason Clarke, and Keri Russell. Andy Serkis does return with his acclaimed motion capture performance of ape leader Caesar.

Three  summers back, Rise was a pleasant surprise to both critics and audiences. It got off to a strong $54 million opening weekend in August 2011 on its way to a $176 million domestic take. This time around, expectations are even higher. And it also seems that critics are even more enthusiastic about Dawn. It currently holds a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Nearly all tent pole summer 2014 entries from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 to Godzilla to X-Men: Days of Future Past to How to Train Your Dragon 2 to Transformers: Age of Extinction have either just met expectations or grossed under them. Dawn is in a unique position of following a well-received original franchise entry and having critics gushing about it. This could mean big things for it and I believe it has a fair chance of possibly becoming the season’s largest hit, which I wrote about last week here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/will-the-apes-rule-summer-2014/

As for its opening weekend gross, it should have no problem whatsoever surpassing the $54 million that its predecessor grossed out of the gate. While I don’t see it earning a low to mid 90s haul like Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, or X-Men did, it’s within the realm of possibility. I think a better bet is that it grosses in the mid to high 70s and may develop strong legs in subsequent weekends.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $77.2 million

Will The Apes Rule Summer 2014?

Early reviews have been released for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, out on Friday, July 11 and they are something to behold. The critic from Hollywood Reporter has compared it to The Empire Strikes Back while Variety says it bests its predecessor in every way. Drew McWeeny at Hitfix says it’s one of the year’s best films.

The box office prospects for Dawn looked bright before this rapturous word-of-mouth began and this only greatly accentuates it. 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes was released in August and quickly became one of the summer’s pleasant surprises. It received solid reviews and took in an impressive $176 million domestically.

Three years later – Apes could be in a legitimate position to claim the thrown of summer 2014’s largest grosser. This is due to a combination of certain pictures not meeting expectations. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 immediately come to mind. X-Men: Days of Future Past performed solidly, but should top out at around $235 million while Disney’s Maleficent may earn just under that.

The picture to beat (unsurprisingly) is Transformers: Age of Extinction, which got off to an estimated $100 million start this weekend. Still, that opening means a probable gross of between $250-$275 million and $300 million is a stretch.

Dawn‘s fawning reviews could lead to it being seen as a must-see event picture. We have seen examples of tent pole flick sequels outshining their predecessors in recent years. 2000’s X-Men earned $157 million while its better reviewed sequel X2 made $214 million, a $57 million improvement. 2002’s The Bourne Identity made $121 million while The Bourne Supremacy hauled in $176 million two years later… a $55 million improvement. 2011’s Captain America made $176 million (coincidentally Rise‘s gross) while its sequel The Winter Soldier will top out at over $260 million… about an $85 million upgrade.

And then there’s the largest example by a mile. 2005’s Batman Begins grossed $206 million domestically while The Dark Knight three years later earned an astonishing $534 million. While Dawn will get nowhere near that figure, it’s reasonable now to see a path close to $300 million, which would make it the season’s top dog… or ape.

Having said all that, the bots of Transformers could still end up on top. And as far as the full year’s top grosser – that crown should belong to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part I when it debuts this fall. Regardless, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has become a real contender in summer 2014 and we will see just how much monkey business it manages very soon.