**Blogger’s Note (12/09): National Champions is only being released on approximately 1100 screens. I am revising my projection from $3.2 million to $1.6 million.
Director Ric Roman Waugh switches from Gerard Butler action flicks to an inspirational sports drama with National Champions on December 10th. The basketball tale stars Stephan James, J.K. Simmons, Alexander Ludwig, Lil Rel Howery, Tim Blake Nelson, Andrew Bachelor, Jeffrey Donovan, David Koechner, Kristin Chenoweth, Timothy Olyphant, and Uzo Aduba.
Mr. Waugh most recently was behind the camera for Butler fests Angel Has Fallen and Greenland. His latest comes with a meager budget (a reported $9 million) and minimal buzz surrounding it. Originally slated for Thanksgiving weekend, it was pushed back two weeks.
If something like King Richard couldn’t swing a victory at the box office, that probably doesn’t bode well for this. I’ll project Champions struggles to make half its budget back (or even a third) in the opening weekend.
National Champions opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
Michael Dougherty’s Krampus begins with a stampede at a mall set to “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas”. These are the Black Friday throw downs we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. In some ways, it is scarier and more amusing that what follows for the rest of the film. That said, this anti-Christmas tale is not without its occasional charms and pleasingly out there moments.
For those unfamiliar, Krampus is a centuries old European legend (you can Google) of a ghoulish monster that preys on families who’ve lost their faith in Santa Claus. The yuppie suburbanite Engel family (led by parents Adam Scott and Toni Collette) has almost attained that status, with their young son Max (Emjay Anthony) being the holdout. That changes when their relatives come to visit – they’re a not so well to do clan that consists of David Koechner (think Cousin Eddie with more firearms), his wife and their four children. There’s also aunt Dorothy (Conchata Ferrell), whose solution to the non family fun consists of plenty of Schnapps to keep warm and slightly zoned out.
Speaking of warm, when an out of the blue blizzard hits, the house loses power and connection to the outside world. Adam Scott’s mother called Omi (an effectively creepy Krista Stadler) makes certain a constant hot fire is burning and it’s not just to keep the group comfrotable and aunt Dorothy even more toasted. She knows the story of Krampus first hand and that backstory is relayed in a nifty stop motion animation sequence and she’s trying to keep the anti-Claus from coming down the chimney for more than milk and cookies.
Krampus has his set of little helpers to wreak havoc on the family and this allows for gingerbread menaces and more. It also allows for some knowingly chintzy CG effects and some genuinely impressive ones, too. The title character does look pretty imposing. In fact, when we move into the third act, I really wanted to hang out with him a little more.
Dougherty is known most for his screenplays for superhero tales like X2 and Superman Returns. This is his second directorial feature after 2007’s Trick ‘r’ Treat, a Halloween themed horror anthology which became a cult favorite. That also had some demented and funny moments and was a little overrated in some circles. Krampus may attain that same status. The PG-13 vibe is actually welcome here and this does often feel like it could have been made 30 years ago when that rating was churning out similar genre titles like Gremlins or Critters. It’s a picture when a swear word (spoken by our kid protagonist) feels pleasingly well placed and kind of retro cool.
Yet I can’t deny that Krampus isn’t too frightening and that some of the hoped for laughs grow tiresome. It has plenty of spirit, but never attains the level of Xmas horror classic that it wishes to be. Dougherty has now done two fright fests built around the holidays to moderate success. Perhaps his Arbor or Columbus Day take will be that third charm.
A whole different kind of Christmas comedy hits theaters next weekend when Krampus debuts. This ain’t Love the Coopers, folks. Michael Dougherty, known best for his screenplays for superhero pics X2 and Superman Returns, is behind the camera. This isn’t his first holiday themed horror comedy though. He made the Halloween centric cult favorite Trick r Treat years ago.
Krampus focuses on what may be a very bad Santa with a cast featuring Adam Scott, Toni Collette, and David Koechner. The trailers do inspire some hope. Having said that, the first week of December is not fertile ground for new releases as audiences are mostly preoccupied with Thanksgiving leftovers. Additionally, while movie geeks may be looking forward to this, general audiences will probably stay away.
I believe Krampus will be lucky to reach double digits and will predict that it won’t.
**blogger’s note – due to previously unknown knowledge this is just opening on 1500 screens, I’m revising my original $8 million projection to just $4.2 million
Next weekend we have yet another zombified horror comedy as Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse hits screens. From the screenwriter of a number of the Paranormal Activity franchise flicks, Apocalypse stars Tye Sheridan, David Koechner and even Cloris Leachman.
It is tough to imagine this breaking through in any major way. Moviegoers have certainly seen their share of this genre in recent years and I am skeptical this will succeed in capitalizing on its Halloween weekend release. Like both other new entries rolling out next weekend (Burnt and Our Brand Is Crisis), I don’t believe this will manage double digits for its premiere.
Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.
As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.
For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.
Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.
What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.
You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.
With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.
Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)