Actor turned writer/director Kobi Libii makes his behind the camera debut with satire The American Society of Magical Negroes, which hit Sundance prior to its March 22nd bow. It stars Justice Smith (pulling double fest duty with the well-received I Saw the TV Glow), David Alan Grier, An-Li Bogan, Drew Tarver, Michaela Watkins, Aisha Hinds, Tim Baltz, Rupert Friend, and Nicole Byer.
The reception for Society is likely not what distributor Focus Features was hoping for. The RT rating is only 42%. There’s some thematic comps to freshly minted Best Picture nominee American Fiction. However, most are saying it doesn’t approach the quality of it. Don’t expect this to be talked about a year from now for the 97th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).
On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.
Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.
That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.
Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.
Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.
Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was adapted from the 1985 Steven Spielberg film that was adapted from the Alice Walker novel, The Color Purple is out in theaters Christmas Day. The awards hopeful’s cast includes Fantasia Barrino (reprising her role from the play), Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Blitz Bazawule directs with Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who first rose to fame in the ’85 version) producing.
The source material is obviously well-known as this hopes to attract moviegoers on the big holiday. Christmas is on a Monday in 2023 so this projection is only for that day. Obviously that limits the estimate, but that’s not the only limiting factor. Purple has not generated the Oscar buzz that it’s probably hoped for (though Brooks is a threat to win Supporting Actress). Its inclusion in Best Picture is very much in question (it missed a Golden Globe nod earlier this week).
This should still succeed in bringing an African-American and female audience. I’m anticipating its initial day could see a gross in the higher single digits as it hopes to perform well throughout the end of the year and January.
The Color Purple opening day prediction: $12.9 million (Monday estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Mixing sci-fi, comedy, and government conspiracies, Juel Taylor’s directorial debut They Cloned Tyrone arrives on Netflix tomorrow. It premiered at the American Black Film Festival last month to glowing reviews and that has continued to the tune of a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. John Boyega, Teyonah Parris, Jamie Foxx, David Alan Grier, and Kiefer Sutherland star.
Despite the acclaim, its premiere seems a tad inconspicuous. It might not help that it is streaming in the same frame as the Barbie and Oppenheimer unveilings. However, a limited theatrical output last weekend does make it Academy eligible.
If Netflix were to mount a serious campaign for Original Screenplay (penned by the director and Tony Rettenmaier), perhaps Tyrone could be called up there. I’m guessing the streamer will be focused on different campaigns. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving in theaters on Wednesday, November 10th, Clifford the Big Red Dog hopes to take a bite out of the family box office. Based on the 1963 bestseller by Norman Bridwell, Walt Becker directs. He’s no stranger to pictures about creatures or with animals in the title (Wild Hogs, Old Dogs, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip). Actors on screen or voicing our furry friends include David Alan Grier (providing Clifford’s words), Darby Camp, Jack Whitehall, John Cleese, Russell Wong, Paul Rodriguez, Tony Hale, Russell Peters, Sienna Guillory, Kenan Thompson, and Rosie Perez.
Originally slated for November 2020 before its COVID delay, this giant good boy will premiere simultaneously in multiplexes and Paramount+. That could cause some parents and kids to view at home (though this streamer doesn’t yet have the reach of others). I do question how much clamoring there is for a Clifford pic in general and I don’t foresee a big red-hot start.
With the midweek debut, I look for this to hover around low double digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with low to mid teens for the five-day rollout.
Clifford the Big Red Dog opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
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