Not many eyeballs have been trained on Lionsgate releases over the last couple of years and the studio hopes that changes with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The third feature in the magic infused heist franchise arrives nearly a decade after the second installment. Ruben Fleischer takes over the directorial reins from Louis Leterrier (the 2013 original) and Jon M. Chu (the 2016 sequel). Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fischer, and Morgan Freeman reprise their roles and newcomers include Justice Smith, Dominic Sessa, Ariana Greenblatt, and Rosamund Pike as the main villain.
In the summer of 2013, part 1 was an unexpected hit with a $29 million debut and $117 million domestic haul. Three years later, the follow-up experienced diminishing returns with a $22 million start and $65 million overall gross. Unless there’s a nostalgia factor the series that I’m simply not seeing, this should experience the worst opening of the trio and that long layover doesn’t help. I’m thinking mid to high teens.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
Real-life spouses Dave Franco and Alison Brie are fictional spouses growing a little too close for comfort in the body horror tale Together, out July 30th. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts) and the Neon distributed release generated significant buzz after its Sundance bow.
Together currently has bragging rights with a rare 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and that’s helpful for the TV spots. Metacritic is at 76. Neon hopes this brings in genre audiences like their unexpected hit Longlegs did last summer. That critically appreciated pic surprised prognosticators with a $22 million start.
I don’t anticipate Together will see that kind of premiere. I do anticipate it will outdo the $5.3 million opening of Neon offering Immaculate last spring. Since it kicks off on a Wednesday, I’ll say a higher single digits bow over the traditional weekend with around $10 million for the five-day is the call.
Together opening weekend prediction: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The body horror genre had its awards breakout last year via Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. After its January unveiling at Sundance, could Together generate attention from voters? Starring real-life married couple Alison Brie and Dave Franco, it marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts).
The exploration of codependence made a splash in Park City months ago. Hitting theaters on July 30th, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a perfect 100% (with almost 50 reviews in) with 76 on Metacritic. I probably would’ve discounted its prospects before The Substance nabbed five nods. Together is likely still a long shot for Academy attention. If it can contend anywhere, look to Original Screenplay. However, that race is already packed with potential players. Perhaps more importantly, distributor Neon will have its hands full with Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After posting the highest PTA of any 2024 title thus far, the erotic thriller Love Lies Bleeding expands wide this weekend. Marking Rose Glass’s sophomore directorial effort behind her acclaimed horror pic Saint Maud, Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian headline with Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco in support.
Bleeding first dropped at Sundance with general acclaim and it now holds a 91% RT score. In only five coastal venues, it took in $167k to nab that aforementioned best average.
Yet rolling out nationally could be a different story. Playing well in L.A. and NYC is not surprising. What’s in between could be a challenge. I’m assuming 1200 screens and if I get new information, that could alter this forecast. My projection likely puts it just outside this weekend’s top 5.
Love Lies Bleeding opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.
From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.
A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Well-known actors crafting nifty little suspense thrillers tinged with horror has become a thing lately (think John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place and Joel Edgerton’s The Gift). Dave Franco gets in on it with The Rental, which is swift in its running time and plentiful with twists that you see coming and some that are nicely rewarding. It also features a quartet of solid performers whose weekend getaway gives them far more than they bargained for.
Charlie (Dan Stevens) finds a swanky vacation house to nab for the weekend with help from his trusted assistant Mina (Sheila Vand). They’re celebrating something going right with their business and it’s good reason to let their hair down with Charlie’s wife Michelle (Alison Brie, the director’s real life spouse). Mina happens to be dating Charlie’s brother Josh (Jeremy Allen White) so he tags along with his puppy. Pets aren’t allowed at the establishment, but that turns out to be the least of their issues. For instance, there might be a psycho around and it’s not safe to be in the shower.
Upon arrival, the foursome confront the property’s caretaker Taylor (Toby Huss). The first problem is a racially tinged one. Mina, who’s of Middle Eastern descent, tried to rent the place and was promptly denied. Charlie had no such trouble. They decide to overlook that and the first night becomes an alcohol and designer drug filled party. This is where the aforementioned “twists” that follow are somewhat predictable in nature. However, the actors have a real chemistry with one another and you’ll want to see where it all leads.
Without venturing into spoiler territory, The Rental isn’t its eventual genre for about two thirds of its brisk 88 minutes. Credit is due to Franco and Joe Swanberg’s script for keeping the audience engaged in the dynamics of the four principals. Of them, it’s Vand who has the best role and she’s quite impressive.
When we arrive at the final third, the build up has been sturdy enough that we care about the fates of the characters as they navigate their way through dense fog and deeply personal conflicts. Franco has crafted a lean and effective directorial debut and its title is worth the price of one.
One of the most eagerly awaited titles screening at the Toronto Film Festival has premiered in the form of If Beale Street Could Talk, the third directorial feature from Barry Jenkins. As you may recall, his second film Moonlight took home the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2016 in rather memorable fashion over La La Land.
Beale Street is based on a James Baldwin novel and set in mid 70s Harlem. The pic sports a large ensemble cast led by Stephan James and Kiki Layne alongside Regina Hall, Colman Domingo, Teyonah Parris, Pedro Pascal, Diego Luna, Ed Skrein, and Dave Franco. Early reviews suggest this could be a player in multiple categories, including Best Picture and Director. In down the line races, it could be recognized for its score from Nicholas Britell as well as Cinematography, Editing, and Production Design. Jenkins could also contend for his Adapted Screenplay. While most critical reaction is strong, some have said it doesn’t quite match up to Moonlight. That said, we shall see if that particular buzz changes in the coming weeks and I feel pretty secure marking it for Picture consideration.
As for the cast, that’s a little murkier. James and Layne are receiving positive notices, but both the lead acting races seem awfully crowded. Both Hall and Parris could contend in Supporting Actress, but that too is far from guaranteed.
Bottom line: If Beale Street Could Talk likely did what it needed to do to be in the Picture and Director mix, while acting nods are a bit less clear.
The film opens domestically on November 30. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
TheDisasterArtist begins with filmmakers J.J. Abrams and Kevin Smith and actors Adam Scott, Danny McBride, and Kristen Bell extolling the strange virtues of TheRoom. That terrible movie became one of the most unlikely cult hits of the 21st century. The rest of the picture details its strange maker Tommy Wiseau (James Franco) and the process to bring it to a midnight theater showing near you.
Just as TheRoom was Wiseau’s warped vision all his own, this is clearly a passion project for Franco. I suspect many of the other well-known actors who turn up in parts large and small are devotees of the unintentionally hilarious 2003 film that Franco is recounting. Like Tim Burton’s EdWood, this is a good movie about a bad director. Not as good, but it’s an entertaining watch that doesn’t probe too far into its subject’s real story. Truth be told, maybe we don’t really wanna know.
Tommy Wiseau wouldn’t want it any other way. We first meet him in San Francisco circa 1998 as he pours his heart into Marlon Brando’s monologue from AStreetcarNamedDesire at an acting class. His rendering is quite awful, but it’s his devil-may-care attitude and blind commitment that gets the attention of Greg (Dave Franco). He’s a fellow student who’s more reserved. Tommy is too, but in a much different way. His age is a mystery and he’s not about to tell it. A European accent (where in that continent… who knows?) counters his contention that he hails from New Orleans. Most interestingly, Tommy seems to have a limitless supply of money and no one knows why.
His new pal Greg manages to ignore those puzzling personal aspects and they road trip it to L.A. to move in together and pursue their dreams. Although he seems to have some prospects, Greg can’t catch a break. Tommy’s overall bizarre vibe is an immediate red X to casting agents. The only solution is to finance his own feature.
And TheRoom is birthed throughout a long shooting process with a director who has no clue what he’s really doing. We see Wiseau torment his cast and crew because he read somewhere that’s how Alfred Hitchcock did it. Those who know TheRoom will revel in revisiting Wiseau (who casts himself as the romantic lead) and his humorously questionable line readings. There’s his screenplay that inexplicably brings up cancer subplots that go nowhere and sex scenes that would be deemed too horrible for 2am Cinemax play.
Franco, who also serves behind the camera, is obviously enamored with getting his portrayal of Tommy’s mannerisms and his journey to make this project as accurate as possible. Even if you’re not familiar with Wiseau’s cinematic opus, one YouTube viewing of an interview with him and you’ll know Franco nails it. The star/director, in addition to casting his brother, finds roles for Dave’s real life wife Alison Brie and his frequent costar Seth Rogen as a perpetually bemused script supervisor. Yet just as the real Tommy made his personal relationships and the shooting experience all about him, so is the case with TheDisasterArtist.
That devotion from Franco is enough to make this a worthwhile experience. If you’re looking for any insight into what really made Tommy who he is, you won’t find it here. The ultimate irony is that Wiseau did end up succeeding in a town where that’s nearly an impossible feat. He didn’t know that the earnest drama he thought he was making would result in RockyHorrorPictureShow style late night screening madness. What kind of man could achieve this? We may never know, but it’s a fun question for Franco and others to ponder.