Alien: Covenant Box Office Prediction

Five years after director Ridley Scott returned to the franchise that got his career going, he’s back behind the camera again for Alien: Covenant next weekend. This is the sixth installment in the series that Scott began 38 years ago with the beloved Alien. 

That love did not quite extend to 2012’s Prometheus, which drew mixed audience and critical response. Michael Fassbender returns as android Walter with a cast including Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir, reported return appearances from Noomi Repace and Guy Pearce, and James Franco apparently.

Five years ago, Prometheus opened to $51 million but its so-so buzz meant a front loaded overall gross of $126M. Reviews for Covenant have been mostly solid and it stands at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. One encouraging sign: several critics have noted this gets the franchise back to its horror roots unlike its predecessor.

It’s also said to be a direct sequel to Prometheus and one wonders if the bad taste it left in some mouths will prevent this from topping it. I’ll predict Covenant does not reach the $50M+ achieved half a decade ago and that mid 40s seems more feasible.

Alien: Covenant opening weekend prediction: $44.6 million

For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid, The Long Haul prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

For my Everything, Everything prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

Sausage Party Movie Review

The comedic team of Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (they were childhood friends) was first witnessed by mass audiences in 2007’s inspired Superbad. That pic was conceived by the duo when they were young and that teen spirit infused it with a refreshing authenticity. Their cinematic marriage has since shown their fondness for raunchiness and weed. Nothing has quite hit the effectiveness of their first collaboration. Some have come pretty darn close (Pineapple Express, This is the End) while others have come up a bit shorter (The Watch, The Interview, The Night Before). Most of their works have performed well or at least decently at the box office (The Watch is a notable exception) and Sausage Party is the kind of movie you get to make when studios let you do whatever you want. It ends up on the higher scale of their work.

Party gives us the rare instance of a truly R rated animated flick. Rogen and Goldberg’s affection for vulgarity is on full display and one suspects it was green stuff other than money that may have assisted in coming up with the concept. Here it is: the food and products in your local grocery store are alive and blissfully unaware of what happens to them after they walk out of the sliding doors. Rogen’s Frank is a sausage and Kristin Wiig’s Brenda is a bun and they’ve been waiting to connect once they break out of their respective packages. In their understanding, this will occur once they’re purchased by the Gods (who are actually just your everyday consumers) and enter the Great Beyond outside of Shopwell’s.

A returned jar of honey mustard (voiced by Danny McBride) tries to warn his market friends of what lies ahead when their dream of freedom is met. Many are skeptical and what’s often most surprising about Sausage Party is its allegorical themes pertaining to religion and sex with some expected drug humor thrown in. It’s also chock full of bad puns (some quite hilarious) and plenty of the living products representing their stereotypes. The most obvious and amusing example? The villain of the establishment (voiced by Nick Kroll) is literally a Douche. We also have Sammy the Bagel, giving Edward Norton a chance to be funny and essentially do a Woody Allen impersonation and his ex-girlfriend Salma Hayek coming out of her shell as Theresa del Taco.

As mentioned, Goldberg and Rogen are free to do what they want here and Sausage Party does have plenty of uproariously inappropriate moments. There are also times when their out there idea is funnier in concept than actual execution. Additionally, the final gag practically begs for a post-credits sequence that never materializes. Still, at a brisk 88 minutes, this Party is fresh enough for consumption of its creators fans.

*** (out of four)

Sausage Party Box Office Prediction

It’s a banner year for animated movies at the box office (excluding the freezing out of Ice Age: Collision Course), yet a very different one opens next weekend with Sausage Party. The 3D animated flick comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg and it is definitely not meant for the little ones.

Supermarket produce comes to life in the very hard R comedy that features a whole lotta familiar voices other than Mr. Rogen’s. They include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Paul Rudd, Nick Kroll, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. Made for a quite reasonable $30 million, this has been a passion project for Rogen and company and took years to get produced. Early reviews have been strong – it holds a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes (no word yet on whether actual rotten tomatoes are featured in this).

If there’s one genre where not a whole lot of data exists – adult animated pics would be one of them. 1996’s Beavis and Butthead Do America opened to $20.1 million and 1999’s South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut earned $11.3 million. Word of mouth could certainly help here but in the end, I envision this performing similarly to some other Rogen features. This is The End earned $20.7 million in its initial weekend and this summer’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising disappointed with $21.7 million. That seems like a reasonable range for this Party and I’ll put it at just below $20M.

Sausage Party opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Pete’s Dragon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/petes-dragon-box-office-prediction/

For my Florence Foster Jenkins prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/03/florence-foster-jenkins-box-office-prediction/

The Angry Birds Movie Box Office Prediction

The Angry Birds Movie, out next weekend, marks a first as the animated tale is our inaugural film to be based on an app. Millions worldwide have spent countless hours flinging those ill-tempered fowls into various structures and we’ll soon find out whether they wish to spend a couple of hours watching them on the silver screen.

Based on the Rovio Entertainment game, Birds features the voices of many familiar names including Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Sean Penn, Bill Hader, and Peter Dinklage. Reviews have been mixed with a 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Frankly, Angry Birds is a big question mark. A high-profile family friendly animated flick should perform quite well in the month of May. However, without the Disney brand or well-established franchise tag (Ice Age, Rio, Madagascar, etc…), it’s unclear whether kids and their parents will flock (get it?) to this.

The range of possibility for this opening is wide, but I’ll go with a mid 30s debut.

The Angry Birds Movie opening weekend prediction: $34.5 million

For my Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/11/neighbors-2-sorority-rising-box-office-prediction/

For my The Nice Guys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/11/the-nice-guys-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Zootopia and Sausage Party

Two wildly different 2016 animated features could both find themselves in the Best Animated Feature category come Oscar time next year.

The first is Disney’s Zootopia, which has ruled the box office kingdom for the last two weeks and looks to reach an eventual gross of $275-$300 million domestically. With a fantastic 99% Rotten Tomatoes score and bragging rights for being the biggest opener of all time for a traditionally animated tale, there is little doubt it will be among the five nominees. It could even win, though its biggest competitor might be Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel Finding Dory, which is out this summer.

Our second possibility is Sausage Party, which screened in a rough cut at the South by Southwest Festival last night. Billed as the first hard R rated CG flick, Party comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and his writing/producing partner Evan Goldberg. In addition to Mr. Rogen, featured voices include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. It’s not out until August, but word of mouth from the festival is strong and this looks to be a potential sleeper hit come summer. This isn’t your typical animated material that the Academy would recognize, but it might be tough for them to ignore.

We’ll see how this race plays out as more competition is released in the coming months, but we may already have a couple of major possibilities in the mix.

Rock the Kasbah Box Office Prediction

Bill Murray headlines the comedy Rock the Kasbah, out next weekend and it hopes to join the many successful genre pics Mr. Murray has graced over the past three decades plus. Oscar winner Barry Levinson directs Murray as a has-been rock agent looking to reclaim his mojo in Afghanistan, of all places. The stellar supporting cast includes Bruce Willis, Kate Hudson, Zooey Deschanel, and Danny McBride.

Last year around the same time period, Murray’s St. Vincent opened to positive buzz and an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Rock the Kasbah may have trouble replicating that kind of business. For starters, the buzz on Kasbah isn’t as hot as that of Vincent and there’s also plenty of adult competition in the form of Steve Jobs and the second weekend of Bridge of Spies, among others. On the other hand, this really is the only comedy out there among lots of dramas and horror type flicks.

As I see it, this modestly budgeted $15 million pic might struggle to reach double digits in weekend number one and its best hope might be small drop-offs in subsequent weekends for a respectable gross.

Rock the Kasbah opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Aloha Movie Review

Cameron Crowe’s Aloha further marks a trip down mediocrity lane for a filmmaker that has graced us with Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. For me, his last worthy effort was 2001’s Vanilla Sky, which occasionally lacked focus but its merits outweighed its demerits. The same cannot be said for everything in Crowe’s oeuvre that’s followed – Elizabethtown, We Bought a Zoo and now this. Aloha is a strange mix of romance, comedy, drama, Hawaiian mysticism and corporate and military industrialism that never feels cohesive. The various aspects of the screenplay never quite gel. The casting decisions, packed with top notch talent, are a mixed bag. There are moments that remind us of Crowe’s greatness, but not many.

Bradley Cooper stars as Brian, a defense contractor who travels to Hawaii to assist a billionaire business mogul (a subdued Bill Murray) on a shady deal. Emma Stone is Allison Ng, the Air Force pilot whose task it is to assist him and, of course, fall for him. Rachel McAdams is Brian’s “one that got away”, an old flame now married to John Krasinki’s strong and very silent service officer. We jump back and forth wondering which woman Brian will try to end up with. Crowe’s screenplay keeps us busy with not only the romance angle but our central character’s occupational hazards with Murray and Alec Baldwin and Danny McBride’s military personnel roles. There’s a lot of plot happening here coupled with many stories of Hawaiin lore. Simply put, it never really comes together in satisfactory fashion.

I appreciated Krasinski’s work and his non talking nature allows for some humorous moments. Yet there isn’t a performance here for any of the famous faces matching their best work. It’s when Crowe allows his performers to be quiet for a moment that shine, like Murray and Stone dancing to Hall and Oates in a nicely constructed sequence. As good as Stone can be and usually is, she’s miscast here and her part is not written well (her explained Chinese and Hawaiian heritage feels a bit stretched).

We get the family drama involved with Brian and the McAdams clan that we see from a mile away mixed with his involvement with Ng and then back to Murray’s increasingly nefarious corporate magnet. It switches so much that it never allows us to care much about any of it. Cameron Crowe’s lesser work still provides glimpses of his unique voice in cinema. Over the last decade, those moments are becoming more and more sparse and there’s not enough gorgeous scenery of our 49th state to make up for it.

** (out of four)

Aloha Box Office Prediction

In a career spanning over a quarter century, Cameron Crowe has given us critical darlings like Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. Yet it’s been some disappointments in recent years from the director including Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Where will this Friday’s Aloha place?

That remains to be seen. With less than a week before its premiere, I’m a little surprised no reviews have yet to surface and it does create a bit of skepticism. The romantic comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a female audience and the all star cast won’t hurt. Bradley Cooper is hot off the biggest grosser of 2014, American Sniper. Emma Stone is fresh off Oscar attention for Birdman. And the supporting players consist of Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, Alec Baldwin, John Krasinski and Danny McBride.

Aloha is a somewhat odd release for late May as it would appear to be more suited for a fall release. Still, the cast alone should get it close to $20 million for a decent debut.

Aloha opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million

For my San Andreas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/22/san-andreas-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies: Nos. 10-6

This evening on the blog, part II of my Top 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies!

If you missed part one covering numbers 15-11, you can find it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/09/todds-15-most-anticipated-2015-summer-movies-nos-15-11/

We move forward into the Top Ten with numbers 10-6 before my final installment tomorrow revealing the top five.

Let’s get to it!

10. Ted 2

Release Date: June 26

Seth MacFarlane’s Ted was the comedic hit of summer 2012 with its foul talking teddy bear. Mark Wahlberg is back, though Mila Kunis is out with Amanda Seyfried in. Comedy sequels are a risky proposition, but let’s hope MacFarlane can recapture the magic he made three years ago (and couldn’t duplicate with last summer’s mediocre A Million Ways to Die in the West).

9. Straight Outta Compton

Release Date: August 14

F. Gary Gray, the man responsible for several music videos featuring the film’s subjects as well as Friday and The Italian Job, directs the musical bio of NWA – the highly influential gangsta rap group that included Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, and Eazy-E. Dre and Cube serve as producers.

8. Trainwreck

Release Date: July 17

Judd Apatow had a one two punch of comedy classics with 2005’s The 40 Year Old Virgin and 2007’s Knocked Up. His follow-ups, Funny People and This is 40, were just OK. Trainwreck is said to be a return to form based on word of mouth, with comedian Amy Schumer primed for a breakout starring role. Bill Hader and Lebron James (!) co-star.

7. Ant-Man

Release Date: July 17

The last time Marvel Studios had a feature thought to be outside the box and risky, it was last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy and it turned out to be the season’s biggest hit. This studio knows what they’re doing and here we have Paul Rudd playing the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly in supporting roles.

6. Aloha

Release Date: May 29

For the past decade, Cameron Crowe’s filmography has been unimpressive with Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Let us not forget, though, that this is the man that brought us Say Anything, Jerry Maguire, and Almost Famous. Crowe’s latest is a romantic comedy with a truly impressive cast – Bradley Cooper (hot off American Sniper), Emma Stone, Bill Murray, Rachel McAdams, Alec Baldwin, and Danny McBride.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Top five coming at you tomorrow…

This Day in Movie History: December 29

Eighteen years ago on This Day in Movie History – December 29 – brought a trio of pictures opening for Oscar qualifying runs. While none of them were nominated for Best Picture, they all found varying degrees of success with their actors being nominated for awards.

First up, Terry Gilliam’s sci-fi pic 12 Monkeys starring Bruce Willis, Madeline Stowe, and Brad Pitt. It earned Oscar nominations for Mr. Pitt for Supporting Actor (his first nomination) and Costume Design. Pitt would lose in the category to Kevin Spacey for The Usual Suspects, but he did win the Golden Globe.

Next is Dead Man Walking, the capital punishment drama from director Tim Robbins starring Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon. It would earn nominations for Director, Actor, Actress, and Original Song with a title track from Bruce Springsteen. Only Sarandon was victorious while Penn would lose to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas.

Finally, Mr. Holland’s Opus with its Oscar nominated performance from Richard Dreyfuss in this drama spanning the life of a music teacher. Dreyfuss’s work was the only Academy nomination, but the pic turned into an unexpected box office hit with an $82 million domestic haul.

As for birthdays today, Jude Law is 41. Mr. Law has worked with some of the greatest directors alive from Scorsese (The Aviator) to Spielberg (A.I.: Artificial Intelligence) to Eastwood (Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil) to Nichols (Closer). Other notable roles include Gattaca, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Road to Perdition, Cold Mountain, Side Effects, and his work as Watson alongside Robert Downey Jr. in the two Sherlock Holmes flicks.

Danny McBride is 37 today and he’s one of the most recognizable faces in comedy over the past few years with roles in Pineapple Express, Tropic Thunder, Up in the Air, 30 Minutes or Less, Your Highness, and This is The End. There’s also his starring role in the HBO cult hit “Eastbound&Down”.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the birthday performers:

Jude Law was in Sherlock Holmes with Robert Downey Jr.

Robert Downey Jr. was in Tropic Thunder with Danny McBride

And that’s today – December 29 – in Movie History!