Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.
As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.
Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?
Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $82 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
6. Eternity
Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (November 21-23)
Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.
Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.
In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.
Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.
Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.
With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.
2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.
The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.
That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.
At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.
Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: Anora
Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.
The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
Critics are liking the hang for Peter Hujar’s Day out of Sundance, the latest feature from indie auteur Ira Sachs. The two-hander casts Ben Whishaw in the title role of the real-life photographer known for his work in the 1970s and 80s. Rebecca Hall is his writer friend.
Originally meant to be a short film, it still is definitionally at a brisk 76 minutes. This is Sachs’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2023 Passages, which collected four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Film and Mr. Whishaw in Supporting Actor.
Known to many moviegoers as Q from Daniel Craig’s 007 run (or the voice of Paddington), Whishaw is getting lots of Park City praise for his lead role. The pic itself stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic. Like Passages, I’d say this is more Indie Spirit friendly than Oscar. The eventual distributor might be wise to campaign in that space. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 4/5
I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
How I Did: 9/10
I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.
Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.
Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 4/5
I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.
Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.
Animated Film
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.
Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 5/6
I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.
Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is where Anora could get a prize.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 4/5
Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
How I Did: 5/6
I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.
Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 4/6
Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.
Casting
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
How I Did: 2/5
This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.
Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
How I Did: 4/5
Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.
Costume Design
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.
Editing
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap
How I Did: 3/5
Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.
Make-Up and Hair
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.
Original Score
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.
Sound
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.
Special Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).
And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:
Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.
However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).
Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).
There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).
That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.
Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.
Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.
Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.
For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.
Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – A Complete Unknown
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Alternate – Wicked Little Letters
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango
Alternate – Monkey Man
Best Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Alternate – Piece by Piece
Best Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera
Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Alternate – Inside Out 2
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Alternate – All We Imagine as Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked
Alternate – Sing Sing
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Best Supporting Actress
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Best Casting
Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – Kneecap
Best Cinematography
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – Blitz
Best Editing
Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Original Score
Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Wicked
Best Production Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – The Brutalist
Best Special Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate – Wicked
Best Sound
Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – The Substance
That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Conclave
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
Gladiator II
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
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