The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).
On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.
Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.
That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.
Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.
Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.
Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.
In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.
Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Iron Claw
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
20 Days in Mariupol
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)
8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Killers of the Flower Moon
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
May December
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka
The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.
This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.
Let’s get to it!
Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Color Purple
Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Todd Haynes, May December
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Fallen Leaves
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternate: Wish
Cinematography
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Costume Design
Barbie
Chevalier
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Alternate: The Holdovers
Makeup
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Nyad
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Maestro
Score
Elemental
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Boy and the Heron
Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Visual Effects
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Napoleon
Ensemble
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Color Purple
Comedy
American Fiction
Asteroid City
Barbie
Joy Ride
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Alternate: Bottoms
Young Actor/Actress
Joe Bird, Talk to Me
Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Violet McGraw, M3GAN
Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Barbie, Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Maestro, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
5 Nominations
May December
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3 Nominations
The Color Purple, Saltburn
2 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.
James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.
Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.
Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.
A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.
With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.
Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.
Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.
I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).
Documentarian Roger Ross Williams is already an Oscar winner for his short film Music by Prudence (for which he became the first African-American filmmaker to receive an Academy Award). His 2016 feature-length doc Life, Animated make the quintet in its longer form category and Williams hopes for a return to show with Stamped from the Beginning.
It’s based on the 2016 book by Ibram X. Kendi (subtitled The Definitive History of Racist Ideas in America). Out on Netflix last Friday, it played the Toronto Film Festival in September to solid notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. Stamped was up for Best Feature and for Historical Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards over the weekend and went 0 for 2.
Despite the perfect meter, there are other docs with even stronger reviews. Yet I’ve had Stamped marked for a nomination in my recent predictions. Don’t be surprised if it makes the shortlist and eventual cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.
With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Documentarian Asmae El Moudir delves into her family history in The Mother of All Lies, a Moroccan effort that has played Cannes and Toronto to all positive reaction. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, I’m not sure the 7 reviews up at press time indicate that it will be a heavy awards player. There’s time for that to be rectified, but I’ll note the Critics Choice Association totally ignored it in their nominations this past week.
It is Morocco’s entry for Best International Feature Film and the odds are likely long for inclusion. The submitting nation has yet to receive a nomination despite 18 tries since 1977. If Lies gets recognized by the Academy, a nod in Documentary Feature is more realistic. I suspect 20 Days in Mariupol, which is Ukraine’s pick in IFF and Doc, stands a much better shot at the latter race than this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss’s documentary The Mission is out in limited release after playing the festival circuit including Telluride and London. It examines the killing of American missionary John Allen Chau in 2018. The documentary arm of National Geographic produces.
The team behind The Mission have made acclaimed docs such as 2014’s The Overnighters and 2020’s Boys State. They have not managed to generate attention from the Academy. With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, reviews are fine. However, I’m not confident The Mission will represent their first shot at the big dance. This has not made my top 10 possibilities in previous write-ups. Yet the prospects shot up when the Critics Choice Association named it among their 10 best for 2023 alongside surefire contenders like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.
Whether The Mission is mentioned in my next update remains to be seen, but it’s certainly on my radar now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Errol Morris is one of the best known documentarians in the medium whose The Thin Blue Line (1988) is a genre classic. Two decades back, The Fog of War was crowned best doc at the Academy Awards. His latest is The Pigeon Tunnel and it’s out on Apple TV this weekend after playing the festival circuit in Telluride and Toronto.
It chronicles the life of legendary spy and spy novelist John le Carré. His works such as The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, The Constant Gardner, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy were all made into acclaimed pictures.
Reviews are appreciative with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, at this week’s announcement for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, it managed only a Best Score nod. If Pigeon can manage to make the shortlist when they’re revealed in December, it obviously has a shot. With a strong slate of docs in contention, that might not happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Earlier this year, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2007 and 2008 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We begin with the obvious. There’s a quintet of titles that would’ve made the dance because they already did. Martin Scorsese’s The Departed was the first title from the legendary filmmaker to win BP and he also won his only statue for direction. It additionally took home Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing and nabbed Mark Wahlberg a Supporting Actor nod.
The other four contenders were Babel from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, picking up 7 nominations with its sole victory in Original Score. Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima got in for BP, Director, Original Screenplay, and won for Sound Editing. Little Miss Sunshine had two trophies for Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and Original Screenplay. Helen Mirren’s podium trip in Actress for Stephen Frears’s The Queen was the only win in its six mentions.
So what else? Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls managed to underperform on nominations morning and still lead with 8 overall nods. Jennifer Hudson took Supporting Actress and it was honored for its Sound Mixing. Despite it not garnering BP, Director, or a screenplay mention, I think it gets in with an expanded ten.
Same goes for Blood Diamond which went 0 for 5 but scored key noms in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou), and Film Editing.
Todd Field’s Little Children got BP love at Critics Choice and the Globes with Oscar nods for Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Jackie Earle Haley), and Adapted Screenplay. The acclaim probably puts it in.
Paul Greengrass made the final five for his direction of United 93, which also had a Film Editing mention. It makes my cut as well.
As for the 10th slot, options abound. Al Gore’s environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a box office success (especially for the genre) and went 2/2 in its nominations in Documentary Feature and Original Song. I almost picked it to make the ten. Notes on a Scandal received four mentions for its leads Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench and its adapted screenplay and score. You could easily put it in the mix and I wouldn’t argue. Children of Men from Alfonso Cuaron received three noms in Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Clint Eastwood had another WWII epic with Flags of Our Fathers which was up in both sound races. And Borat was a buzzy phenomenon which received an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Yet I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth as my final selection. Even though it lost the Foreign Language Film race to Germany’s The Lives of Others, Guillermo del Toro’s creation was up in six races and won three – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup.
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