Never Let Go tries to avoid a recent Lionsgate curse when it opens this Friday. That might be unavoidable for the Alexandre Aja (Crawl) directed horror flick starring Halle Berry. Percy Daggs IV, Anthony B. Jenkins, Matthew Kevin Anderson, Christin Park, and Stephanie Lavigne costar.
The survival tale seems to be flying considerably under the radar. As mentioned, Lionsgate had been experiencing an onslaught of financial underachievers over the last few weeks thanks to Borderlands, The Crow, and The Killer’s Game.
It also won’t help that genre fans have had plenty of material in 2024 and Speak No Evil will be in its sophomore frame. Mid single digits is where I’m going with this.
Never Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
I fear that Haley (Kaya Scodelario) will have trouble running into her school’s mascot after the events that transpire in Crawl. She’s a college student attending the University of Florida and she gets the literal treatment to gator chomps. When a Category 5 Hurricane is poised to make landfall, Haley goes searching for searching for her dad Dave (Barry Pepper). Flashbacks show him pushing juvenile Haley hard in the sport of swimming. Their relationship is strained, though that nautical training sure comes in handy here.
When she finds him and their dog Sugar, he’s trapped in the old family home and there’s not one, but two alligators skulking around while the rain pounds away. The pair must use their survival skills to battle all the elements and try to turn their tormentors into boots or luggage (as the former California Governor said in the Arnold not so classic Eraser).
Crawl is short (87 minutes), unambitious, and straightforward. Those adjectives will apply to this review. It’s certainly watchable and clips right along. The gators look pretty menacing and the underwater camerawork is stellar. Director Alexandre Aja has covered this stuff before in Piranha 3D. This is primarily a two person show with Scodelario and Pepper, though you may find yourself rooting hardest for Sugar to pull through. His bark occasionally assists in avoiding the creatures bites.
Even with the brisk running time, the occasional callbacks to the father/daughter dynamic seems tacked on. After all, the exposition of Dave using coaching terms to get Haley to do the breaststroke isn’t exactly Quint recounting the events of the USS Indianapolis. And this Jaws knockoff is a standard and sometimes effective diversion.
Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs&Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million
It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs&Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the FastandFurious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking TheLionKing from its two week perch atop the charts.
OnceUpon a TimeinHollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 filling out the top five.
There is a potential wild card this weekend with TheFarewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $72.6 million
2. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
4. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July26–28)
TheLionKing, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.
Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with OnceUponaTimeinHollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.
ToyStory4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.
I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.
Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.
Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed OnceUponaTimeinHollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking TheLionKing. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, InglouriousBasterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.
As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles2.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome looks to be third with ToyStory4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.
And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July19–21)
Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. TheLionKing easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by HarryPotterandtheDeathlyHallowsPart2 by over $20 million.
Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.
After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: FarFromHome slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.
ToyStory4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.
Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.
Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.
I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.
Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as TheLionKing stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:
TheLionKing could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind BlackPanther but just ahead of Avengers: AgeofUltron.
Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with ToyStory4 in third.
Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $192.7 million
2. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July12–14)
The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: FarFromHome took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.
ToyStory4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.
Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.
The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.
Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.
The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.
As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.
After a terrific start, FarFromHome should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.
Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, ToyStory4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
3. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Stuber
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July5–7)
The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: FarFromHome kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!
ToyStory4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.
AnnabelleComesHome was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.
I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.
Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.
Kaya Scodelario and Barry Pepper might be the two human headlining actors in Crawl, but it’s a bunch of murderous alligators that are the star attraction. The horror pic takes place after a hurricane with the reptiles terrorizing survivors. Alexandre Aja directs.
Coproduced by Sam Raimi, Crawl would love to bring in the kind of coin that recent shark tales have brought in over recent summers. 2016’s TheShallows made around $16 million for its start and the following year’s 47MetersDown took in just over $11 million.
With a minor reported $17 million budget, Crawl appears set to be a profitable venture for distributor Paramount. I’ll say this manages to come close to its price tag in its first three days of release.
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