Tag: COVID-19

Top Gun: Maverick Box Office Prediction

***And a final update for Top Gun: Maverick as my prediction rises again to $113.4 million for the three-day and $138 million for the four-day. That it gives it the #2 all-time Memorial Day for both frames.

***Blogger’s Update (05/25): Significantly up-ticking my estimate once again. Now projecting a three-day of $103.7M (good for second biggest Memorial Day Friday to Sunday) and $124.4M for the four-day (third largest all-time). Sky is increasing the limit…

**Blogger’s Update (05/24): Estimate updated from a three and four-day projection, respectively, of $75.6M and $98.8M to $86.6M and $104.9M. That now gives Maverick the #7 largest Memorial Day weekend three-day and #6 four-day

It could be a record breaking memorable weekend for Tom Cruise as Top Gun: Maverick finally lands in theaters. The long gestating sequel arrives 36 years after the original made Cruise a superstar. The wait was only supposed to be 33-34 years, but production delays and COVID postponements altered the plan.

Joseph Kosinki, who previously directed the lead in 2013’s Oblivion, directs. Costars include Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Glen Powell, Ed Harris, Monica Barbaro, and Val Kilmer reprising his role as Iceman. Critics have certainly indicated this is worth the wait. Budgeted at a reported $150 million, reviews are impressive with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. There’s even Oscar buzz as it will surely be a contender in Sound and Song (with Lady Gaga crooning “Hold My Hand”).

Paramount is hopeful that Maverick will take the breath and money away from moviegoers over the Memorial Day frame. The loud buzz generated by critics should make this soar even higher than previously anticipated.

In doing so, we could see Tom cruise to a personal best opening. Somewhat surprisingly, his all-time largest opening is War of the Worlds at $64 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the last flick to feature Cruise four years ago) is close behind at $61 million.

Maverick will, of course, have a four-day tally. That’s familiar territory for Cruise as the first three Mission: Impossible tales premiered over Memorial Day with the second one doing $70 million from Friday to Monday. However, it opened on the Wednesday before to bring its gross to $91 million.

First things first. I do believe Tom’s latest sequel will achieve his highest three day take ever. I also suspect there will be some projections for Maverick that will be too high. A four-day take of over $100 million is absolutely doable (and my prediction could rise in the coming days), but I’m skeptical. That’s uncharted territory for Mr. Cruise. A Friday to Sunday haul in the mid 70s seems likelier. If that happens, it should achieve mid 90s for the whole frame. That would give it the ninth best Memorial 3 day start – in between Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84 million) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park ($72 million). It would rise a spot to 8th for the four-day between the same two features at $103 million and $90 million, respectively. And that would be a memorable start indeed.

Top Gun: Maverick opening weekend prediction: $113.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $138 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Bob’s Burgers Movie, click here:

The Bob’s Burgers Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Top Gun: Maverick

Top Gun: Maverick was supposed to arrive a mere 34 years after its iconic predecessor. Due to numerous COVID delays, it now hits theaters on May 27th and some 36 years behind the original. By nearly all accounts, Tom Cruise and the filmmakers have landed the plane.

Ahead of its Cannes premiere, the review embargo has lapsed for Maverick and the Rotten Tomatoes score is a sizzling 96%. Nearly all critics are calling it an improvement over the ’86 blockbuster and it could be in line to give Cruise his largest opening and overall hit of his career (my box office prediction will arrive next week).

Three and a half decades back, part one caught the attention of Academy voters in four categories. The Berlin theme “Take My Breath Away” won Best Song and Gun nabbed nods for Film Editing, Sound, and Sound Effects Editing. All those races are in play again in one form or another.

Best Sound has been condensed to one category and it’s a near lock that the sequel will play there. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects are also possibilities. Then there’s the sound of Lady Gaga’s voice. The superstar contributed the track “Hold My Hand” and it could be hard to beat. Ms. Gaga is poised for her third Song nomination behind 2015’s “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground and “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (which won). She also shares Score credit with Hans Zimmer (who just won a trophy for Dune) and Harold Faltermeyer (best known for his Beverly Hills Cop tune “Axel F”).

Let’s assume Sound and Song are gimmes. With the aforementioned others, we could be looking at a handful of mentions. Will the Academy go beyond the tech derbies? It looks like Maverick will be a gigantic earner and crowdpleaser. I have no doubt there will be a push from Paramount for Best Picture recognition and Cruise in Best Actor. If so, it would be his fourth acting nod. There were two in lead for 1989’s Born on the Fourth of July and 1996’s Jerry Maguire and a supporting mention for 1999’s Magnolia. He’s never made a victorious trip to the podium.

I’m skeptical about it playing in the major leagues, but wins in Sound and Song are doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Memory Box Office Prediction

Can Memory reverse the string of forgettable Liam Neeson pics we’ve seen lately or will it fall in line with his recent underwhelming performers? Slated for April 29th, this casts him as an assassin dealing with cognitive lapses. Martin Campbell (who kicked off the Brosnan and Craig 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) directs. He most recently helmed the lackluster The Protege with Maggie Q and Michael Keaton.  Costars include Guy Pearce (who starred in the acclaimed Memento which covered similar themes) and Monica Bellucci.

It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Neeson resurged his career with Taken. This second life as an action star resulted in some hits, but there’s been more misses recently. The Marksman and Blacklight took in $3.7 and $3.5 million, respectively, in the COVID era. I see no reason why Memory wouldn’t suffer a similar fate and the gross may even dip a bit.

Memory opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Box Office Prediction

J.K. Rowling’s Wizarding World returns on April 15th with Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, the third entry in a franchise that hasn’t spellbound audiences in the same way that Harry Potter did. David Yates, who made the last four Potter pics and previous two Beasts offerings, is back in the director’s chair. Familiar cast members are led by Eddie Redmayne alongside Jude Law (as the title character), Ezra Miller (in what may be his last appearance in the series due to offscreen controversies), Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, Callum Turner, Jessica Williams, and Katherine Waterston. Speaking of offscreen controversies, Johnny Depp is no longer the villainous Grindelwald as Mads Mikkelsen now fills the role.

COVID and Depp’s recasting kept Secrets from its intended November 2021 debut. With an Easter premiere, Warner Bros is hoping this at least stays on par with predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them took in $74 million for its start with $234 million overall domestically. 2018 follow-up Grindelwald couldn’t match that as it conjured up a Wizarding World opening nadir of $62 million and $159 million total.

Reviews for Secrets are better than those of Grindelwald (60% vs. 36% on Rotten Tomatoes). I’m not sure that will matter all that much. I’m just not sensing the enthusiasm and the three and a half year wait shouldn’t help. This might earn about $15 million less than Crimes to set another low mark.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opening weekend prediction: $48.1 million

For my Father Stu prediction, click here:

Father Stu Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Morbius

Jared Leto has an Oscar for his supporting work in 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club. That film won another trophy for Makeup and Hairstyling. Three years later, Leto’s turn as The Joker in Suicide Squad contributed to a victory in that same category. Last weekend, House of Gucci (featuring a much ballyhooed turn from Leto) lost the Makeup derby to The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Why am I bringing this up?

Well, it’s an excuse for Morbius and Oscar to appear as words together in a post. The Sony/Marvel production (which casts Leto as the vampire antihero) is finally making its way to theaters on Friday after numerous COVID delays. There’s been rumors that it’s not of the highest quality and the lapsed review embargo seems to prove that. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a mere 19% at time of publication.

That said, some of this genre fare can still materialize in Visual Effects or Makeup and Hairstyling (like Suicide Squad). I would say Morbius has a better chance at multiple Razzie nominations than any from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Box Office Prediction

Right before COVID changed the world as we knew it, 2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog hit big at the box office. Based on the Sega video game franchise, it amassed the largest opening yet for its genre with $58 million from Friday to Sunday and $70 million for the four-day President’s Day frame.

Just over two years later, the sequel is out April 8th. Jeff Fowler returns to direct with Ben Schwartz reprising his vocal stylings at the title character. Colleen O’Shaughnessey and Idris Elba also lend their words while the live-action cast includes Jim Carrey, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Natasha Rothwell, Adam Pally, and Shemar Moore.

Budgeted at a reported $110 million, part 2 will hope to approach the $149 million earned domestically by the original. It should have no trouble opening in first place. With the short amount of time between entries, I believe it should manage a low 60s start.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opening weekend prediction: $62.5 million

For my Ambulance prediction, click here:

Ambulance Box Office Prediction

For my Everything Everywhere All at Once prediction, click here:

Everything Everywhere All at Once Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Sonic the Hedgehog 2

In February 2020, Sonic the Hedgehog (based on the popular Sega video game) was one of the last massive box office success stories before COVID shuttered theaters for months. Come Oscar time for the 93rd Academy Awards, one of the surprising omissions was Sonic being left off the shortlist for Best Visual Effects. After all, many of the tentpole projects for 2020 were pushed to 2021 or beyond (including Dune which won last weekend). Instead there were unexpected nominees such as Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan. 

The new franchise will have another bite at the apple in 2022 with Sonic the Hedgehog 2, opening April 8th. Reviews are decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (a bit stronger than the original’s 63%). Yet if part 1 couldn’t manage to break into VE in a weaker year, I wouldn’t anticipate the sequel making the cut this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 1-3 Box Office Predictions

After a lengthy COVID delay, Morbius with Jared Leto sinks its teeth into multiplexes this weekend. It’s the only new release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Morbius Box Office Prediction

The third entry in the Spider-Man Extended Universe after the massively successful Venom flicks, Morbius likely won’t approach their numbers. Mid to high 40s, however, should easily nab it the #1 spot.

After an impressive start, look for the Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum comedic adventure The Lost City to dip in the mid 40s with The Batman sliding to third. The five spot could be close between the sophomore frame of RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt (which should experience a steep decline) and Uncharted.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Morbius

Predicted Gross: $45.8 million

2. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $12 million

4. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (March 25-27)

As mentioned, The Lost City premiered on the high end of estimates with $30.4 million (reaching just past my $28.4 million take). After a pair of Netflix hits, Bullock posted a pleasing debut and Tatum has his second solid performer in a row after Dog. 

The Batman fell to second after three weeks on top with $20.4 million, in range with my $21.6 million projection. The Caped Crusader reboot has amassed $331 million.

The Indian action drama RRR had the best per screen average as it began with $9.5 million, rising ahead of my $7.8 million prediction.

Uncharted was fourth with $5 million, falling short of my $6.1 million guesstimate. The six-week tally is $133 million.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $5 million) for a two-week haul of $27 million.

X was sixth with $2.2 million, a tad under my $2.7 million prediction for $8 million overall in its first 10 days.

Dog was seventh with $2.2 million. I went with $2.7 million and the gross is $57 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Deep Water

Adrian Lyne’s erotic thriller Deep Water was supposed to surface in theaters way back in November 2020 before its COVID delays. It marks the director’s first feature in 20 years since Unfaithful. The multiplex release was scrapped and a year and a half later, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming debut on Friday. The cast includes former couple Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas along with Tracy Letts, Lil Rel Howery, Dash Mihok, Finn Wittrock, and Kristen Connolly.

The embargo is up. Some critics have called it a worthy throwback to 80s/90s era psychosexual dramas. Others aren’t as kind as evidenced by the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Lyne’s previous efforts have yielded awards attention. 1983’s Flashdance garnered 4 down the line nominations with a win for that title song. 1987’s Fatal Attraction nabbed six including Picture, Actress (Glenn Close), and Supporting Actress (Anne Archer). Diane Lane received a Best Actress mention for the aforementioned Unfaithful two decades back.

So it’s not unreasonable to think of Lyne’s work as Oscar bait. It just won’t happen here as Water‘s critical reaction won’t give this any oxygen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.

Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.

With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction