Tag: Coralie Fargeat

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dahomey

Caught by the Tides

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Anora Takes the Cannes

The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.

One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.

The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.

In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.

Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.

Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.

As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.

Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.

Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!

Oscar Predictions: The Substance

Cannes festival goers are going gaga over The Substance, a two and a half hour body horror pic from French auteur Coralie Fargeat. Demi Moore headlines as a former Oscar winner whose career is on the skids with Dennis Quaid and Margaret Qualley supporting. When our lead turns to highly experimental means to maintain her physical appearance, the grotesqueness begins.

At a festival where journalists breathlessly clock the runtimes of standing ovations, The Substance reportedly has the longest thus far. There are raves for Moore’s work. Despite performances spanning decades in several iconic films, she hasn’t received recognition from the Academy (unlike her character).

Despite the buzz, it might be a reach for this subject matter to get on Oscar radar. Still it’s worth not losing track of for what appears to be a real comeback role for Moore. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…