Tag: Conclave

78th BAFTA Awards Reaction

The 78th British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) have occurred across the pond. What will be the ripple effect for the Oscars in two weeks? Let’s get into it!

Last weekend, the PGA/DGA/Critics Choice Awards troika rightfully vaulted Sean Baker’s Anora to frontrunner status at the Academy Awards. My feeling (shared by plenty of prognosticators) is that Anora would have a tougher time taking top prize at BAFTA. That turned out to be true, but it did nab an award that could shake up another major competition.

Edward Berger’s Conclave is your BAFTA Best Film and I correctly called that. It wins two years after the director’s All Quiet on the Western Front did the same. A very important reminder: Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Film at BAFTA have matched just twice in the past decade. For those thinking this vaults Conclave into winning status in two weeks, think again. If it can be named Best Ensemble at SAG next weekend, chances improve.

Brady Corbet is Best Director for The Brutalist (another correct call). This adds intrigue to the Academy’s directorial competition as Sean Baker won DGA last weekend for Anora. They should battle it out for Oscar.

Overall I went 17 for 24 in my projections. Before I get into the acting derbies and screenplay contests, let’s do a quick review on where I went right elsewhere. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is the honoree for Animated Film while Emilia Pérez escaped its controversies to become Best Film Not in the English Language. The Brutalist took Cinematography and Original Score. Wicked is both your Costume Design and Production Design victor. Make Up & Hair went to The Substance. Conclave won Editing with Dune: Part Two emerging in Sound. Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer went to Kneecap with Conclave predictably taking Outstanding British Film.

Here’s where I went wrong in the down the line competitions. I went out on a limb with Better Man in Special Visual Effects and it was Dune: Part Two. In the Rising Star Competition, the Brits chose one of their own (David Jonsson) instead of Mikey Madison. Jonsson received plenty of complimentary notices in 2024 for Alien: Romulus. We are not done with Madison though.

In the newly created Children’s and Family Film race, it was Wallace & Gromit again and not my predicted The Wild Robot. And Anora aced Best Casting over Conclave. Finally, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story is your Best Documentary despite not being up at Oscar. I went with No Other Land which is considered the soft Academy favorite.

Now let’s get to our acting and writing showdowns. In maybe the biggest upset of all, Jesse Eisenberg won Original Screenplay for A Real Pain. I had Anora projected with The Brutalist as my runner-up. Truth be told, my second runner-up would’ve been The Substance so Pain managing this was truly unexpected. On the other hand, Conclave is the Adapted Screenplay winner which was expected.

Three of the four frontrunners in the acting races made English podium walks today and solidified their positions. That would be Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as Best Actor and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in their respective supporting fields. For any of this trio to be denied a sweep, the SAG Awards would need to provide that disruption next weekend.

The other frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice was Demi Moore in The Substance. Yet the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) and this sets up an unpredictable competition between them.

Bottom line: the BAFTAs made Best Actress and Director more intriguing while I wouldn’t read too much into the Conclave selection. Keep an eye on the blog for more speculation as we hurdle toward Oscar night.

Here’s the breakdown of movies that won BAFTAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist, Conclave

2 Wins

Anora, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked

1 Win

Kneecap, The Substance, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

BEST FILM

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Predicted Winner: Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Predicted Winner: No Other Land

Runner-Up: Daughters

BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

BEST CASTING

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST EDITING

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: The Substance

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST SOUND

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Better Man

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Kneecap

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

Predicted Winner: Kneecap

Runner-Up: Santosh

Best Children’s & Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

EE Rising Star Award

Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

5 Wins

Conclave

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

36th PGA Awards Reaction: The Producers Anoint Anora

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.

In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.

As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.

Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!

36th Producers Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.

Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked

In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).

PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again

PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.

PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

I’ll have a recap up this weekend!

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.

The Case for Dune: Part Two:

If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.

The Case Against Dune: Part Two:

The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).

The Verdict:

In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave

Oscars: The Case of Conclave

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.

The Case for Conclave:

Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.

The Case Against Conclave:

Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.

The Verdict:

The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.

My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.

The Case for A Complete Unknown:

If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.

The Case Against A Complete Unknown:

It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.

The Verdict:

I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.

My Case Of posts will continue with Conclave…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist