Tag: Companion

February 28-March 2 Box Office Predictions

In what should be a quiet box office weekend, survival thriller Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu hopes to find an audience while Captain America: Brave New World seeks to three-peat. You can find my detailed prediction post on Breath here:

Last Breath Box Office Prediction

Despite a troubling 68% sophomore plummet, Captain America should manage a third weekend atop the charts due to lack of competition. It may, however, not even reach low teens this time around.

The best case scenario for Breath would be second place, but it could place anywhere from runner-up to fifth depending on drops of holdovers.

The Monkey, with a C+ Cinemascore grade, is likely to experience a heftier decline over family fare offerings Paddington in Peru and Dog Man (though it could remain in second).

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out in a cinematic frame where audiences might be more transfixed by the Oscars:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

2. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

3. Last Breath

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

5. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Predictions (February 21-23)

As mentioned, the MCU’s 35th feature Captain America: Brave New World cratered in its second outing with a near 70% fall. It made $28.1 million, in line with my $29.6 million call, for a $141 million ten-day overall take.

Horror comedy The Monkey performed toward the lower end of its expected range at $14 million. I was more generous at $18.2 million. Look for it to fade quickly like Companion did.

Holdovers generally went under my forecasts with Paddington in Peru third at $6.5 million compared to my $8.9 million estimate. The two-week total is an underwhelming $25 million.

Dog Man was fourth with $5.8 million, under my $7.1 million prediction for $78 million in its four weeks of release.

Ne Zha 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it listed. The Chinese animated fantsy took in $3 million to bring its two-week tally to $14 million.

Heart Eyes was sixth with a ginormous 73% dip to $2.7 million in its third weekend for $26 million in the bank.

Finally, The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi was another snoozer for Lionsgate in 8th. It made $2.3 million and I projected it at $3 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

February 14-17 Box Office Predictions

For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction
Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.

Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.

It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.

And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

3. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

4. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.

Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.

Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.

Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.

Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.

Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction
Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.

Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.

As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.

Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

2. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Love Hurts

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Companion

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.

Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.

Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,

Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Companion

Drew Hancock’s mix of horror, sci-fi and comedy Companion (out tomorrow) is drawing far stronger reactions that most January releases manage. Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid star with Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend supporting.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 76, Warner Bros hopes to have a sleeper on its hands. Thatcher is turning into a Scream Queen with The Boogeyman and Heretic to her credit. The latter also drew thumbs up notices and probably came close to earning Hugh Grant a Best Actor nod.

Yet as an any Oscar follower knows, horror is a tough genre for performers to generate awards chatter. That should hold true in this case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

January 31-February 2 Box Office Predictions

DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:

Dog Man Box Office Prediction
Companion Box Office Prediction

A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.

As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.

Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Companion

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. Flight Risk

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (January 24-26)

Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.

Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.

One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.

While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.

Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.

Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.

Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Companion Box Office Prediction

Horror pic Companion looks to earn its budget back quickly when it debuts January 31st. From writer/director Drew Hancock, Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid headline with a supporting cast including Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend.

Buzz among genre fans is decent with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic. With a reported price of tag of only $10 million, this should be a profitable venture for Warner Bros. I could see this performing similarly to last fall’s Heretic out of the gate. It also featured burgeoning scream queen Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of) and took in $11 million for its start. I’ll say Companion is right in that range.

Companion opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million

For my Dog Man prediction, click here:

Dog Man Box Office Prediction